Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Scottish independence: Glasgow University Think-tank says no debt in an independent Scotland would be worth double the value of oil under the North Sea, but the kicker for ordinary Scottish families would be that borrowing would soar to sky rocket rates, austerity in Nirvana, means milk and honey pulled out of your mouth while eating!

Dear All

One of the things that signals loud and clear that the Scottish independence campaign is bogus right from the start was the lack of government and local government reform.

The only ‘evidence’ of something happening was when Alex Salmond made two females in his clique Cabinet Ministers and jacked their pay up by circa £30k.

A rather squalid attempt to capture the women’s vote by Salmond and Sturgeon which will back fore on them, women can’t be so easily duped.

Another huge mistake was Alex Salmond’s threat to default on taking a share of UK debt if the SNP didn’t get its way and got a currency union.

Under Alex Salmond and unpopular Nicola Sturgeon independence isn’t independence at all.

The center for Public Policy for Regions (CPPR) at Glasgow University says that refusing to accept a share of UK debt would be worth twice as much as North Sea oil to an independent Scotland.

That may well be the case in a financial sense, the downside is more important, Scotland would see "punitive" borrowing rates.

And if Salmond and Sturgeon thought screwing the rest of the UK was something that they could get away with, they would be kidding themselves on.

Although no debt could substantially improve Scotland's otherwise "poor" economic outlook, the real issues of investment and growth would plague Scotland, the country would be a pariah nation.

Who would invest and take what some investors would see as an unacceptable risk in a volatile Scottish market.

Defence Secretary Philip Hammond said nothing would be ruled out in independence negotiations.

Is he speaking for David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg?

No, his generalisation much like Lord Robertson’s ‘end of the world’ speech isn’t unhelpful.

Although he would like Faslane to remain nuclear, Salmond relies on his ‘sein fein lite’ and CND clique to do activism, and some hold key positions in the SNP.

One thing that Salmond doesn’t want is a leadership challenge; the ‘unity’ party hasn’t really got any unity at all.

When Salmond is defeated, the SNP will try and put unpopular Nicola Sturgeon in as the unity candidate, she will sit back and see the U turn on Nato abandoned, that conversion in my opinion isn’t real and genuine.

Like the con tricks on women, it is a mechanism for a vote cache.

The Tory Defence Secretary has put his foot in his mouth; that is politics; Labour sources have accused Mr Hammond of "unhelpful" negative attacks on the SNP.

We will see more gaffes as although some people are in politics, they cannot look at the wider picture, Hammond just demonstrated tunnel vision.

The new think tank report warns on the debt debacle:

"The latter outcome may then trigger the application of a punitive rate of interest, which would have a detrimental impact on Scotland's businesses, local authorities and borrowers in general."

Mortgages would sky rocket and people would have real problems, some people could lose their homes, we are already told that some people are one pay cheque away from losing their homes.

Where are these people going to come up with £5,000 a year more as quoted in the press to service their payments?

Second job!

What about downsizing?

Well, people will have to look at options, something that the SNP haven’t bothered to do.

CPPR economist John McLaren said:

"Scotland's share of current debt servicing costs is twice the size of projected future oil revenues. However, any benefit arising to an independent Scotland from starting with zero historic debt would be heavily influenced by whether this was achieved via amicable negotiations or through Scotland's refusal to accept what the remainder of the UK (rUK) consider to be an appropriate share."

According to the report:

"The £5.5 billion improvement seen in Scotland's 2016-17 fiscal balance through not having to service existing debt is worth twice as much as the contribution from North Sea tax revenues in that year (£2.7bn, using a geographic share of the Office for Budget Responsibility latest forecast). However, this apparently very positive picture is clouded by a number of uncertainties."

Although it is possible that Salmond could default on debt, he would be passing on the repayments to Scottish people.

And any chance of EU or Nato membership would be a pipe dream.

Scottish Finance Secretary John Swinney said that the report showed "exactly how strong a hand Scotland will have in negotiations following a vote for independence".

He is deluded, a tail doesn’t wag the dog; measures would be put in place to make life difficult for non EU Scotland.

Swinney added:

"The UK Treasury has already made clear that, in the event of independence, it will remain legally liable for the entirety of UK national debt. However, the Scottish Government takes the fair, reasonable and responsible view that an independent Scotland should pay for a fair share of debt - but any agreement which includes liabilities must also include a fair share of the assets of the current UK and the pound."

In his analysis, if he done any, he would know that in 2015, there will be an election in Westminster, all parties would have to go into that election with a pledge not to have a currency union.

Whoever lies on this one would see themselves out of government contention for a generation.

Although Hammond's gaffe of "everything will be on the table" was seized on by unpopular Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon who is desperate to paint the UK Government as liars to justify the SNP’s deception to the Scottish people, she is plainly out of her depth. The fact she needs the unionist side to make a fool of themselves to generate ‘copy’ rather suggest how little steam the Scottish independence campaign actually has.

Alex Salmond shot his last bullet on ‘White paper’ day last November, the chamber is empty, he has no ammo, no troops, losing ground and is in retreat, his 30 minute conference speech at the weekend signaled he had no idea where to go from here.

 The Scottish National Party campaign for independence is a failed campaign run by talentless people who think that independence can be bought.

It can’t, you have to earn that trust, something to think about the next time that Alex Salmond wants to plant his ass in a bed and roll around on Egyptian cotton sheets at £2,900 a night in Manhatten.

Grab those goodies Alex, grab as much as you can before the end, the Scottish taxpayer is picking up the tab!

Yours sincerely

George Laird 
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University

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