When Nigel Farage left UKIP, and setup his new party, he effectively sucked the life out of Ukip, election results and voter share was dire. In the wake of Farage’s departure, UKIP couldn’t steady their ship via new leaders. It seemed the party has in a relatively short time gone through leaders like a bushfire in the Oz outback. Post Farage, the leadership has been held by Diane James, Paul Nuttall, Henry Bolton, Gerrad Batten, Richard Braine, and now has Patricia Mountain as the acting leader according to wiki.
Post Farage, the only real chance of moving on was via Diane James. Her leadership started and ended very quickly, a pity because she had presentational skills and presence that others didn’t have.
The only other person who came close was Gerrad Batten who was attacked when he appointed Tommy Robinson as an advisor. The press takes a running interest in Robinson because of his previous EDL links, his reporting of Muslim rape gangs which they mostly ignored in reporting until forced and his background, when the press decide to target you, you can either disappear or take the hits and move on, Robinson hasn’t gone away.
In the upcoming Holyrood 2021, we could see various groups of pro Uk parties take the stage especially vying for the list seats. Whether these groups get organize and split the vote remains to be seen. Already there is talk about one of the pro Uk parties having a revamp to field candidates for Holyrood.
The main interest in Holyrood 2021 is denying the SNP a majority. Majority or not however there will be no indyref 2 post that election, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said no, not while he is PM. I think, we can expect a crowded but will that have a ripple effect. If you look at Scottish Labour in Glasgow, they probably don’t think they can win a first past the post seat, so are banking on getting 4 on the list. But what if a pro UK party can upset their apple cart and they only return 3 seats? I get no sense of urgency about Scottish Labour in terms of being motivated because at present there is a deputy leadership contest between ‘the left’ and ‘the right’, Corbynista Vs Blairite.
In the wake of Brexit, the Scottish Landscape will change; Brexit is coming, and with it seems that Ukip in Scotland has a new mission, abolish Holyrood. 20 years of devolution hasn’t brought forward a better nation, it has been made worse under the SNP. The Parliament at Holyrood is described as a second rate parliament with third rate politicians running it, there is a lot of mileage in that description that people can recognise.
The first question is what chance has UKIP of breaking into the private club?
None in 2021!
They didn’t stand in the Westminster 2019 election in Scotland, they are effectively dead in the water, and the other mainstream pro Uk parties such as the Labour Party, Conservatives, and Lib Dems will not support their view or their mission. Add in no backing from the SNP obviously and the Scottish Greens, or any widespread public support or civic public campaign and you get the picture of them reaching for something well out of reach.
Holyrood is here to stay a shining beacon of failure to deliver, a farce where democracy, the little version is played out in a private club atmosphere, and where the majority of the MSPs are middle class university graduates. The reason that Holyrood won’t get abolished even if UKIP can make a “proper Unionist case” for reverting to the pre-devolution status is greed, Turkeys don’t vote for Xmas and neither do middle class university graduates for unemployment.
UKIP will probably find little support for their cause, a recent Survation poll showing 16 per cent of Scots favour scrapping Holyrood and 13% think it should have fewer powers. And the crucial question was how many of the 16% were Ukip voters. The mentality now in Scotland is how to make devolution work; this is more or less right across the board. When starting a campaign, you must consider what people want, and also temper what you want in some respects; UKIP’s leadership has obviously been carried away with what they want to the exclusion of everything else.
They are in one policy effectively killing off any chance of winning a single seat.
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University