Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Scottish independence: Icelandic academics warn independent Scotland would be at 'deep strategic disadvantage', soon or later, everyone comes to the George Laird view, backward SNP can’t defend Scotland, Salmond’s just a buffoon

Dear All

Awhile ago I attended the BBC Big Debate on independence, the guests were Labour MP Anas Sarwar, Conservative MSP Ruth Davidson, Green MSP Patrick Harvie and Scotland’s unpopular Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.

It was the night that Ruth Davidson showed how incompetent Scotland’s unpopular Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon actually is, the EU debacles still haunts the SNP.

During the programme, I put my hand up to speak, when Isobel Fraser called on me to do so, I made a statement that the Scottish National Party needed to adopt NATO and be pro Faslane.

The next day on NewsNet Scotland, I was subjected to abuse online, so I went on to put my abusers straight.

All the abusive comments were taken down.

To recap; George Laird pro NATO and pro Faslane, later on the SNP or to be more precise Alex Salmond went with NATO trailing after me as usual. But the other issue of Faslane was bungled by Salmond in an attempt to shore up his crumbling support. The halfway house approach simply didn’t stack, Nuclear is here to stay!

A Nuclear Faslane submarine base guarantees that Scotland would always be safe if independent.

Now Icelandic academics have written that an independent Scotland would be "at a deep strategic disadvantage" to Russia.

George Laird right again, and ahead of the SNP.

Scotland needs ‘allies’; and ‘allies’ means being part of the NATO club and signing up to all the protocols.

The paper is yet another nail in the political coffin of Alex Salmond, it shows how unprepared he is to lead Scotland if independent.

I said it all before and now legal and political experts from the universities of Iceland and Akureyri have come out and said the same thing.

Small countries like the Nordic states have always had to live with similar risks for decades, however, politically in Russia; armed invasion of a Western State is mostly unthinkable; there are new weapons on the world stage.

Finance, trade, currency and cyber warfare!

Deluded First Minister Alex Salmond last week set out his vision for defence in an independent Scotland during a visit to Shetland, in a conflict, Shetland would be abandoned for strategic purposes.

Russian submarines and naval surface fleet would have control of the sea and air due to their superior naval presence and numbers. The Red Banner Northern Fleet is a force that Scotland couldn’t fight on the high seas.  

And it is a force with nuclear attack submarines.

The Icelandic academics said:

"Like all Nordic states, Scotland would be at a deep strategic disadvantage vis-a-vis the main potentially problematic actor in the region, namely Russia. It would have less than a twelfth of the population of, and far less military strength than, its nearest neighbour - the remaining UK (rUK). It would also be more exposed, geopolitically, than rUK to the wider Arctic zone which is expected to witness rapid development and turbulence - if not actual conflict - because of climate change."

They also added that small states are "disproportionately vulnerable" to external threats such as "powerful crime and terrorism", making them dependent on others "for survival in a hostile international environment".

The paper states:

"In terms both of theory and realpolitik, Scotland as an independent small state would need external shelter in multiple dimensions. Its solutions would incur costs different from, and not necessarily lesser than, those carried by the Scottish people within their present union."

The SNP defence policy is a joke, and as we have seen SNP MP Angus Robertson has done a poor job as defence spokesman.

The nub is that Scotland's security would depend "first and foremost" on maintaining strong ties with rUK and the USA.

Although the US has said they are neutral on the issue, the reality is that they   don’t want an independent Scotland and has made that clear behind the scenes.

It adds:

"Should the break-up nevertheless happen, Washington's attitude is foreshadowed by the rumour that it pressed the SNP leadership to switch in favour of NATO membership. Leaving a strategic black hole north of the rUK and losing access to Scottish facilities would be a serious setback even for US defence leaders."

The SNP is made up in part by malcontents, in order to garner support, the SNP leadership courted CND and other groups for votes.

Now that has backfired on them, CND members of the SNP want a nuclear free Scotland, Salmond needs to keep them onboard to help run the independence campaign because there are few people willing to work for the Scottish National Party.

Scotland as an Independent Small State: Where would it seek shelter? is written by political scientists Alyson JK Bailes and Baldur Thorhallsson, from the University of Iceland, and Rachael Lorna Johnstone, law lecturer at the University of Akureyri.

If you can’t get a hold of a copy then just read the George Laird view because I have been saying it first and well ahead of everyone else.

The SNP should have gone pro nuclear Faslane, yet again, stupidity and poor judgment replaced vision and intelligence.

Alex Salmond can’t get anything right, the man’s a buffoon, if Scotland was invaded, he would be off to London to set up the 'Scottish Government in exile' leaving everyone in the lurch!

Yours sincerely

George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University


Anonymous said...

As one of the authors of the article to which this comment refers, I do urge readers to refer to the original and read it in full and not rely on what seems here to be rather selective quotations. We did not make a case for or against independence and certainly did not conclude that Scotland could not go it alone or would be somehow vulnerable. The premise of the paper is that small States (and Scotland from an Icelandic perspective is not even small!) need to affiliate themselves with other States for "shelter". This should not be a surprise to anyone. The UK too, although much larger and in possession of nuclear weapons, also seeks shelter through other institutions, including NATO and the EU.
The original article can be read here (open access):

(Click on the pdf symbol for the full English text.)
With best wishes, Professor Rachael Lorna Johnstone.

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