Thursday, February 23, 2012
Scot Sec Michael Moore wants independence referendum to be held in autumn 2013, SNP can’t win indyref then, lack of resources, money & manpower
It isn’t often that Scottish Secretary Michael Moore says something funny, but he has entered the world of political comedy.
He wants the independence vote to be held in 2013, a year earlier than planned.
People looking at the SNP’s preferred date of August 2014 may find it strange that the referendum is so far away.
There good reasons why; the SNP don’t have enough activists to work in the community, hence heavy reliance on their use of social media. They have set branches too many tasks without carrying out assessments if they are feasible. The branches are time pressured and lack the skill sets to carry out tasks.
For these reasons, the SNP of 20,000 members doesn’t translate to 20,000 activists; I would put the number of activists at circa 3,000. Mostly male and average 50 plus; people who aren’t politicians with the skill set of communication.
That is why I lobbied for a training hub in Glasgow, an idea that fell on deaf ears, because in order to be professional, someone would have to head up a team dedicated to teaching activists various skills beyond being used a form of cheap labour.
That means investment of time, money and resources in Glasgow SNP.
So, in order to give himself the best possible chance to win the independence referendum, Alex Salmond is forced to hold it in 2014 for a variety of reasons, he can’t go now because of the Council elections, 2013 is too early, 2015 might be a Westminster election and beyond 2014 under the current SNP structures, he will run out of money, resources and manpower.
Although the SNP say their campaign has started, Council elections mean it is effectively shelved although they would publicly dispute this.
August 2012 is their real start date, but that is also the start of their problems, manpower. Tasks set by the SNP to branches are doubling their membership, making a database of the top 500 people in each area who might back independence and their activism programme of leafleting and canvassing.
Since selling memberships is a sales task, it cannot be done on leafleting days or indeed on canvassing days. In order to sell an SNP membership, the golden rule is sales is to have a USP, nothing has been done to provide buyers with reasons why they should buy an SNP membership.
The database of 500 is an uphill task because it has to be created from scratch which requires a huge amount of work to create and service, again, no thought by the SNP on how this is achieved.
Scottish Secretary Michael Moore wants 2013, but the SNP can’t do the work by then and it is doubtful that they can do the work by 2014 either. That is because the ‘blue sky’ thinking hasn’t been thought-out properly.
That is why Alex Salmond is arguing with the BBC, he is smart enough to know that social media and exposure is taking up the slack of the logistical problems on the ground.
Moore accuses Scottish ministers of working on a "go slow" and said their planned timetable had “heel digging built in”.
It is quite easy to work out why, just like it was quite easy for me to work out the solution to the Jo Yeates murder prior to the arrest of Vincent Tabak.
13 days before his arrest, I posted the solution on my blog.
The SNP hit back, accusing the Coalition of attempting to "dictate" the terms of the ballot from Westminster.
The row is set to continue and possibly end up in court as the SNP want 16 and 17 year old to get the vote.
The Scottish Government has been accused of electioneering with its plans to hold the vote in autumn 2014.
This would coincide with a series of high-profile events including the Glasgow Commonwealth Games and the anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn.
But we should remember the real reason, Alex Salmond has no one to work for him in significant numbers, this is because of the way that the Scottish National Party operates.
2014, the anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn may turn out to be Alex Salmond’s ‘Battle of the little Bighorn’.
Instead of crying ‘Freedom’ he may end up crying ‘Mammy’.
Perhaps Alex Salmond should watch the classic Errol Flynn movie, ‘They died with their boots on’.
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University