Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Can’t Face Reality; Labour MEP Catherine Stihler says that Brexit is not inevitable and that the UK can change its mind, Stihler can’t grasp or accept that global UK is too far down the road in the minds of people of the UK, all her fevered antics will make the pain of leaving so much worse for her, her job is being terminated 2019, she was given three years to prepare, now only 147 days left

Dear All

You will no doubt be familiar with the term ‘self serving politicians’, in Scotland, there are six MEPs, both the Labour and SNP MEPs are deeply upset with the prospect of unemployment. They are so much in denial that they have banded together in what is termed a ‘cross party’ group to attempt by any means to stop Brexit. The Labour MEP Catherine Stihler says ‘Brexit is not inevitable’ and that the ‘UK can change its mind’.

This is of course delusion, despite the hot air, uproar, deal, no deal, irish border, threats, more threats, unhappiness and general smoke and mirrors, Brexit is still going forward. 29th March 2019, the UK leaves the European Union as a member. The countdown is on; it started the moment that the Prime Minister put in the letter to leave.

What we have now, isn’t a discussion on whether we can stay, we won’t be, but on whether there will be a post exit trade deal.

Brexit has won, Brexit is over, there is no going back, there are no protest marches of millions on the street, the public who voted to stay have in the main accepted the decision. Although the ‘elites’ are promoting a so called ‘people’s vote’, the actual vote by the people has taken place, it is that ‘will’ the UK government is taking forward.

I met Catherine Stihler at a BBC radio show hosted by Gordon Brewer, she is didn’t have a good debate, and some of the audience where hostile, Brexit had made people pretty heated. Catherine had lost because she was divorced from the reality on the ground having enjoyed being in the EU bubble. In the bubble, lots of money, lots of travel, private supermarkets, nail salons and allowances. Yes, the allowances were great especially if you were party minded and wanted to throw a bash.

Prime Minister Theresa May faces a tough fight, the real fight is in her own party, if no deal occurs then we are under the World Trade Organisation rules, there won’t be chaos as many of the privilege few has constantly said. If you think back to the Y2K event in 2000, people thought because computers were changing that everything would stop, we are still here! We will still be here after the 29th March 2019.

Although people like to play out the Brexit talks between the UK and EU as seemingly deadlocked, the EU is under pressure to get a deal, we buy more from the EU than they buy from us. If you think how ‘big business’ operates, the men in the grey suits will have a word in the ear of EU politicians to remind of a pertinent fact, money talks.

Catherine Stihler says Britain should not be afraid to change its mind over leaving the EU by holding a People’s Vote referendum. This is the same tactic used against the people of Ireland, keep them voting until they comply with the EU. This isn’t democracy when it happened to the Irish, and it wouldn’t be democracy if it happened here. Nothing stops these people from campaigning for rejoin the EU down the line, but the risk is that if the UK is a success post Brexit then they wouldn’t have a case or a hope in hell of selling this to the people.
Europe is on the brink of civil war.

All these little incidents are all building up to social unrest and then a backlash, the move away from the political elite to other parties such as AfD, Alternative for Deutschland are pushing forward in the country.

Angela Merkel’s allies Christian Social Union (CSU) took 37.2 percent of the vote in the recent elections, the party's worst performance since 1950.

Of course the pro EU in the UK want time, the reason is simple; they know at this point in time, they are swimming against the tide of public opinion. The same ‘more time’ approach is also coming from EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier. Barnier needs a good deal because it is also tied to his political future. To some extent more time is acceptable in the interests of fairness as Brexit negotiations enter a crucial stage. But goodwill shouldn’t be seen as weakness by the EU, because just as goodwill can be extended it can also be withdrawn.

These EU summits are just “part of the process” and not the final decision-making event, we aren’t there yet, but we are still travelling towards it. The issue of the Irish border is a sticking point, but this isn’t as serious as it is hyped up to be. Things can be worked out.

At present, it is said that businesses, universities, farmers, migrant workers and others across the UK can’t prepare for the Brexit until they know the precise details of the deal. In the case of universities who benefited from the EU gravy train in the form of grants, they will have to ask the UK government for more cash, they did rather well out of the EU, but the party is over. As to migrant workers, there won’t be a ‘round up’ of people and them shipped off in cattle trucks back to Europe, but there will be a registration process just as non EU citizens living in the UK do.

One aspect which is laughable is when people like Catherine Stihler say that the EU member states have approached the negotiations in a comradely spirit; no they have not, quite the opposite. Guy Verhofstadt has made it quite plain that he and others would seek to punish the UK for leaving the European project. How Catherine Stihler can make out that anything else is beyond me, given she doesn’t live in a cave!

Right at the start, I said the UK should go the way of hard Brexit or no deal, this was because the EU was trying to extort money from the UK, no deal is my preferred option. Then in a post Brexit world with no pressure a new trade deal can be made if it is in the interests of the UK.

As events unfold in the talks, up pops Nicola Sturgeon to say the only deal that is likely to secure Commons support is one where we remain in both the Single Market and the Customs Union. This is unacceptable; we don’t need or want EU membership by proxy and it would be a political disaster for the Conservatives in an electoral sense.

When Catherine Stihler and group, legal action to establish whether the UK can unilaterally halt Brexit, I just shook my head, once the letter to leave goes in, you cannot un-ring that bell.

There is no ‘take back’ in the process as far as my understanding, and certainly if there were we would have heard about it before now. So, legal action is a waste of time, it proves nothing, can change nothing and Brexit rolls on! In this case, both the EU and the UK have accepted their obligations by treaty, mutual consent, given the UK government wouldn’t be asking to take back the letter; the EU is legally obliged to continue acting within the parameters of the rules. Although treaties can be altered, there isn’t a get out of jail free card on Article 50 on leaving. This is why I doubt that the European Court of Justice can offer a definitive ruling on this point.

Once the letter is handed over to leave, the clock starts!

I don’t blame Catherine Stihler for wanting to save her job, that is only natural, but whether she wants to admit it or not, her time as an MEP is drawing to a close. Her objective should be to seek another seat in another parliament depending if she can find a constituency to take her on as a prospective MP or MSP. The fact she cannot accept the outcome of a democratic vote may cause her a few problems if she elects to seek office elsewhere in the Labour Party.

Finally, the UK solution to the Irish border problem should be quite simple, let the EU put up the border and then let the EU be the ‘bad guys’, it might prompt the Irish to leave as well.

Yours sincerely

George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University


Al C said...

Even if you're a Remain voter like me, you have to admit that to 'change our minds' (as I assume a 'final say' on the Brexit deal is), would be a disaster, because the EU wouldn't merely accept us in again, they'd screw us over if it was the last thing they'd do. Make an example of us. To accept that would be suicide.

Auld Jock said...

Hello George

Once again, you cut through the fog of bluff, bluster and bullshit. You lay out the facts and, I think rightly, point out the fragility of the EU as an ongoing institution.

As you know, there is increasing frustration amongst mainstream German politicians that Merkel is causing serious electoral harm to her own and coalition parties by her unwillingness to accept the direction in which German voters are now moving. Many people now see her as being increasingly toxic. There can be no way back for her now.

Some commentators say she will be gone by the new year. When she goes, as she must, there will be a vacuum within the EU hierarchy and the Vizegrad guys and the Italians will be emboldened. Some say the Brussels elite are wetting themselves at the prospect of her departure. Others see a prospect of the next EU elections resulting in further reverses for the leftist elites.

All of this, plus what you say about the prospect of civil war suggests a degree of instability in Europe which I think is unprecedented. It could turn out that we get out just in time.

As ever, you have cheered me up big time. Thank you for that.

Auld Jock

Terry Summers said...

I voted remain on a feeling that being in the club and reforming it was better than leaving. Over the period since the referendum I have accepted the UK democratic vote, been appalled at some of the EU Commission statements, regarded the divorce settlement as extortion and despaired at the anti democratic attitudes of AMP,Lib Dem and elements of Labour and Conservatives. I have transitioned the whole way to feeling that ending negotiation, going TWO and withholding £40Bn is the right way forward. Irish Border is a red herring, as a % of of EU cross border trade it is insignificant. We also need to 're-evaluate our relationship to Eire,they have proved not to be worth considering as friends or allies by their cynical use of Brexit to further the cause of a United Ireland, they are endangering the GFA

G Laird said...

Hi Auld Jock

Glad you find my views interesting.