EU social cohesion meltdown gathers pace: 450,000 migrants are on their way to Europe from Libya, it is only a matter of time before people in Europe turn on the political class to remove them from public office, civil war remains a possibility if action isn’t taken to secure Europe borders

Dear All

Something which has got a bit of media attention was the losses experienced by Angela Merkel’s political party in Germany.

In politics, parties win and lose; nothing unusual in that, each election cycle in the main rarely throws up an anomaly unless something major happens.

Angela Merkel is losing Germany’s people, in the recent election; she lost two out of three States contested.

She lost to the far right.

How did she get into this situation, Merkel said Germany had an open door immigration policy.

Now, 450,000 migrants 'are on their way to Europe from Libya' according to Brussels foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, with an estimate one million arrivals this year and the tide will keep on coming until something is done.

I have wrote about the chance of civil war in Europe, I still think that is possible, but also, I sense that we will see the rise of a new political class of the far right, not just in Germany but through-out Europe.

At some point, Europe is going to go beyond metal chain linked fences and move towards a permanent border with specific access points for traffic to go through, detention camps will need to be set up and holding areas in safe zones in Africa.

Europe has travelled a little down the road with my previous suggestions, but they will have to go even further, something which requires a change of political class. If the current situation isn’t addressed in a more proactive manner, numbers could eclipse last summer's wave of arrivals because of 'volatile situation' in North Africa.

Eventually, there will be bloodshed in the streets of Europe, protests, violent protests, riots, fights, attacks and then killing.

There will be one event that so angers the population that violence will be seen as the only solution as people turn away and also on politicians. A lot of things have been invented lately but one isn’t a politician who can outrun a bullet. Prime Minister David Cameron will today plead with EU to take immediate action on Libya, if he is going to talk about anything, he must be talking about occupation. But given it takes time to make the leap, he will probably try the failed route of trying to get co-operation.

More than 2,400 migrants have been intercepted off Libya since Tuesday.

In the Middle East, the most important thing to remember is that democracy doesn’t work, that is the culture, so what does work, well you could argue that the previous regimes all had a similar thread, which was called dictatorship.

The reason why dictatorship worked in the past and the countries were stable was that the society was tightly controlled, people had freedoms, they could travel but when they plotted against the ruler, they were imprisoned or disposed of.

And a lot of dictators found their way into power by supporting America interests, then America changed tack to people power and the Middle East is as you see it today.

Destroyed, unstable and people’s living in slums because the puppets installed don’t have any idea about government, governance and statehood. One western trait called ‘robbing the treasury’ for financial gain still remains popular.

Who doesn’t want to live in a palace!

David Cameron is travelling to Brussels, presumably he has a plan but his adventures in Europe haven’t been successful, his EU reform deal was roundly mocked and he got not a lot from European leaders.

The same ones who screwed Britain did however say that it was important that Britain remains in the EU but on their terms, not ours.

Cameron wants to get the EU to focus as he calls it on the bigger picture, sadly his picture, maybe 4:3 instead of 16:9, that’s widescreen to you and me.

Europe’s borders aren’t secure, running around trying to plug the gaps will not work, we need a permanent border, we need the EU border force, we need to face up to the fact that migrants must realise that they will be deported back.

Now, we can either start doing the painful stuff now, or wait till the political class is removed, replaced or collapses, but someone will get the ball rolling.

One of the big mistakes which to look out for which will get more press in the future is EU Member states controversial deal with Turkey to receive billions in aid, visa-free travel and fast-tracked EU membership.

This is a mistake on both visa free travel and fast-tracked EU membership.

Yours sincerely

George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University