Support for independence has recovered some ground, according to a new poll, but as much as the SNP would want to say this is now momentum, it isn’t.
The reason for increased support isn’t down to what they are doing, rather than unpopularity with Westminster.
In politics when things happen, the saying is ‘events, events dear boy’!
Events have temporary driven up support because of unhappiness, but unhappiness will webb, like the Atlantic tide, there will be surges in indy support followed by a trough.
And Salmond cannot rely on events, he needs people to believe in something more, a narrative which works, at present, the present narrative is weak much like his leadership.
There has been an increase in support amongst 18-24 year olds but Salmond needs the whole age group to climb onboard and that isn’t happening.
Using the confirmed question for the 2014 referendum - “should Scotland become an independent country?”, 34 percent of those certain to vote say “Yes”, up 4 percent, while 55 percent say “No”, down 3 percent.
And then there are the don’t knows, which come voting time, will vote, and given the current state and quality of the Scottish Government may decide to vote to keep the status quo.
SNP business convener Derek Mackay said this is an "excellent poll" for the Nationalists.
No to independence is 55%.
They only lost 3% which isn’t much and not the start of a trend although Salmond and Sturgeon would hope so.
Blair Jenkins, chief executive of the pro-independence Yes Scotland campaign, said:
"The support for an independent Scotland among 18-24-year-olds has more than doubled in the last four months, showing very clearly that our positive and optimistic campaign is resonating with younger people who have the greatest stake in securing a fairer and more prosperous future for our country. This poll is also very good news for Yes because support for a Yes vote in 2014 is on the way up while those intending to vote No is on the way down, and this is consistent with other recent surveys."
In politics, you have to put a brave face on defeat and beam when things go your way, but in private, I would find it hard to believe that these people see this as an "excellent poll".
Publicly of course Salmond and Sturgeon will try and ride the wave, hoping for an endless summer.
It is a blip driven by events, not of their making but of unpopularity down south.
Less we forget; it comes after the “Yes” campaign has targeted the UK government’s cuts to welfare and its record on the economy.
When people realise that the SNP Government wouldn’t do a thing other than talk on issues such as the bedroom tax, they will realise that they have been played, the ‘concern’ expressed now, will be seen through as a campaign gimmick.
Independence can’t be won by spinning, or gimmicks, or Alex Salmond playing the ‘jolly fatman’ concerned for the poor and disadvantaged.
Remember Alex Salmond saying the SNP would help the disabled people at the Accord Centre?
Did they get a new centre from the Scottish Government?
What about Nicola Sturgeon’s help for Joyce Juszczak, Ms. Sturgeon done the photo op as a ‘concerned’ citizen.
Did Joyce Juszczak get the drug she needed by Nicola Sturgeon’s intervention?
She nearly died from a blood clot before she got the right treatment, and less we forget because Ms. Sturgeon didn’t act fast enough, Joyce Juszczak lost a third of a kidney.
Nicola Sturgeon said:
“I joined the SNP because it was obvious to me then - as it still is today - that you cannot guarantee social justice unless you are in control of the delivery”.
Seems she failed on the guarantees of social justice to Joyce Juszczak.
Sadly, Ms. Sturgeon’s version of social justice stinks to high heaven like a burst colostomy bag in a packed sauna.
Today, will probably be seen as a justification of what the Yes Camp is doing as they kid themselves on they are driving events.
They are not!
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University