Tuesday, June 19, 2012
Independence launch, a flop, momentum stalled, now going backwards, 55% of public reject indy, what’s your offer to me Alex Salmond?
Awhile ago I watched a video made by Nicola Sturgeon of the Scottish National Party talking about support for independence.
From memory, she said that independence was about 49% or there about.
And polls change.
Now it seems that George Laird was right again regarding how the independence is being managed.
Voters are snubbing the SNP’s bid for independence in the wake of the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee.
Alex Salmond’s approval ratings are also hitting a new low.
In the Scottish Sun which backed the SNP for Holyrood, their recent poll revealed that more than half of Scots disagree with the First Minister’s plan to break up Britain.
Let us go back to the Glasgow Council Elections, after the Holyrood victory which was a landslide, there was a feeling among some in the SNP that they were going to take Glasgow.
But there were problems which weren’t addressed.
The SNP were openly bragging they would win the city; then they were bragging they would be the biggest party when things started going ‘south’.
In the end the result was as I predicted failure.
27 seats out of 79!
Clearly the package and the candidates put to the public didn’t appeal. I popped into the Sunny Govan Radio Hustings, the SNP leader was woeful in my opinion.
Anyway, what goes around comes round.
The latest news of the slump comes weeks after First Minister Alex Salmond launched his Yes campaign for the referendum.
The ‘Declaration of Cineworld’, which incidentally had the Avengers movie playing, with higher production values.
So to numbers, 55 per cent say they would reject independence.
Up five points since January, this will be maybe a concern to the Yes Scotland and again, highlights my view they need external oversight.
Less than a third of people surveyed say they would back splitting from the rest of the UK, a fall of four points.
And this is on the back of the launch; clearly George Laird radical thinking wasn’t employed.
Alex Salmond still remains the most popular party chief.
But his approval rating is sliding, I predicted a slide in approval ahead of time and it would be like quicksilver.
The gap between those who think he is doing a good job and those who don’t — has dropped nine points to 13.
Unlucky for some, which reveals the lowest level of support since April 2010!
On that basis, the First Minister of Scotland Alex Salmond is now just one point ahead of the Greens’ Patrick Harvie who surprised me at the BBC Big Debate when he spoke to matters of fact, his approval rating 12 points.
Again, truth is the most effective asset in politics.
The bad news however is that Labour leader Johann Lamont’s support has soared since January.
38 per cent of voters believing she’s doing a good job, compared to 29 per cent who disagree, she has a nine point approval rating, up 15 points.
She isn’t there yet at being fully established, people need time, but it’s a different Labour Party under her leadership.
Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie has also lifted his approval rating by seven points, but he is still below zero at minus four. His problem is that the Lib Dems need a narrative to reconnect with voters; Tavish Scott fell on his rubber sword after Holyrood 2011.
By enlarge he did a reasonably decent stint as leader, presented well, had no real problems but he was wiped out by what the Lib Dems did down south.
Not his fault, but he paid the price nonetheless.
Voters haven’t warmed to Tory Leader Ruth Davidson of the Conservatives who scored minus six; she doesn’t have a narrative either to use as a base to make the leap.
Johann Lamont said:
“This shows that the more people hear the arguments, the more they see through the absurdities of Alex Salmond’s case for separation and the more they recognise the benefits of Scotland’s partnership in the UK.”
A spokesman for Mr Salmond said he remained “very confident of achieving a Yes vote”.
“We believe that the positive case for an independent Scotland will overcome the negativity of the Tory-led anti-independence campaign.”
Maybe the spokesman needs to go see the Avengers movie as well since he has lost touch with reality.
55 per cent say they would reject independence and that doesn’t take into account those who are undecided.
Yes Scotland is in a falling market and as I said again and again and again, there is a serious lack of talent in the Scottish National Party.
But there isn’t a serious lack of talent in George Laird; I proposed the Scottish National Police force and Scottish National Fire Service at the SNP National Assembly in Perth in September 2010.
And my lunch contained ham sandwiches and diet coke, because politics is really easy for me unlike some others I could mention.
I said poll after poll will be bad, I said Glasgow SNP won’t win the City Council, and George Laird is always right.
Alex Salmond needs George Laird radical thinking, but George Laird doesn’t need Alex Salmond.
I am waiting on Alex Salmond's offer to me to fix this, otherwise independence is dead.
Tick tock tick tock!
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University