Think back to 2014, Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon have just lost the Scottish independence referendum, the day after there is a new
Scotland. The Scotland before
the 19th September had a different landscape to the one evolving.
Not long after the vote, a Trident submarine came sailing up the Clyde and it was trailed in the media, the significance of the vessel wasn’t it was sailing happily along, it was the
was safe within the United
As we know,
was to further change over Brexit, a million Scots voted to leave the EU, and
as it was pointed out to me, this was more than voted for the SNP to be
elected. As we all know that the failure of the SNP was being heavily involved in
two referendums and losing each of them.
Where are we at now, well MPs voted by 494 to 114 to back the Brexit bill in the House of Commons last night, the number isn’t important, it was always going to go through, the fact that all the SNP MPs were on the wrong side of the debate is. The SNP have made themselves completely irrelevant which shows how disastrous they are at getting on with people down the road.
And getting on with people down the road is important, the bottom line is this, things are moving on and as such talks are taking place on trade deals with Westminster and other global players. When
Westminster gets all its ducks lined up in a
row, they will cut loose from the EU, so the question is this, why aren’t the
Scots getting a place at the table as the new trade deal talks are in progress?
Why isn’t their a place for Scottish representation?
It is because the people at
know as people know in Scotland
that you cannot work with the belligerent SNP leadership. A by-product of
Brexit is the threat of a second Scottish independence referendum. It may
surprise you but Westminster
is remarkably non-phased by the prospect, so much so that a blog post appeared
on Conservative Home.
I read into this that the Conservatives are preparing for a second independence referendum in
Scotland, of course it is doubtful
that second time round there will be a Better Together setup, the last one didn’t
function well at all on the ground. The reason for this was the organisation
was staffed by certain Labour people who were incompetent and also Scottish
Labour didn’t back the organisation properly instead they ran a parallel campaign
which meant that neither of those two campaigns were well staffed with
volunteers. If a second referendum is fought in Scotland, then they is only one
organisation which at present ticks the boxes as having the nucleus of a
At present we back in 2012 mentally, the start of the ‘phoney’ war, something which we are all aware of and how it unfolded over time, we aren’t even at the declaration of a second date. I would say we are at the time prior to that where a lot of shouting is coming from the SNP.
But it isn’t all plain sailing, the Tories aren’t in any rush, Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP have made themselves irrelevant which is why in this ‘phoney’ war, the Tories will block Nicola Sturgeon's bid for second independence referendum. This means that Sturgeon will be forced to go to the polls as she brings down the Scottish Government. The Tories would like Brexit out of the way, some people talk about a vote in 2018/19 but
Westminster may decide that 2020 suits their
purposes better. Sir Michael Fallon, the Defence Secretary said that Nicola
Sturgeon did not have a mandate to stage another vote on Scotland’s future and Westminster had no intention of helping her
This brings us back to what I mentioned earlier about the SNP not being able to get on with people. Although Fallon is the defence Sec, the final word rests with the Prime Minister but when asked on indyref 2 he said:
“No, forget it. The respect agenda is two-way. She (Sturgeon) is constantly asking us to respect the SNP Government but she has to respect the decision of
to stay inside the UK in
2014 and the decision of the UK
to leave the EU. Respect works two ways.”
Notice the use of the word, ‘She’, no warmth there at all, and no goodwill.
I have to say if the shop-soiled white hope of Dreghorn does call for a second vote and gets rebuffed, the humiliation would be delicious, where would she go from there, well, the collapse of the Scottish Government and a ballot to attempt to get an outright majority.
To get the mandate, Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP need an outright majority in their own right, no majority at the Holyrood parliament would do, and I doubt that Sturgeon is up for a coalition with the Scottish Greens.
The SNP don’t play well with others!
Nicola Sturgeon says it would be “inconceivable” the UK Government would refuse her a second vote…… watch this space as
The future is in flux but one thing that needs to happen is that the Unionist parties need to get their act together. The Scottish Labour Party under Kezia Dugdale is in a state of collapse, voters, activists and donors have abandoned them. Conservatives haven’t made the breakthrough, their success is based on Labour’s failure, the Lib Dems are just a rump of a party almost as meaningless as the SSP or under its new guise Rise, Tommy Sheridan’s Solidarity is a one trick pony, and the Scottish Greens are reduced to being proxies of the SNP.
The main thing in
is the political vacuum which flags up a pressing need for a new centre right
Nationalist party to attempt to kick start democracy in Scotland.
Back in the day, I mentioned to Professor Adam Tomkins who was in Better Together, now an MSP, that he should archive all the Better Together information for future reference, it is increasingly looking likely he might have need of it in the future.
If it comes to pass as I suspect, then of course I will be doing a post on George Laird right again, just a matter of sitting back, getting comfortable and watching the car crash happen.
The Campaign for Human Rights at