Wednesday, December 16, 2015
EU referendum: David Cameron vows to get 'good deal for Britain' but Angela Merkel warns free movement and migrant benefits will not change, Cameron took a gamble and now the gamble hasn’t paid off, he should abandon his attempts at renegotiation, he did his best but it’s a busted flush
I sued to think that winning the European Referendum would be a slam dunk for those who wish to remain part of the EU.
I am not so sure now.
When David Cameron said he was going to get a better deal as part of his pitch to stay in, I thought he was onto a hiding for nothing. The European Union is in crisis, the migrant crisis has brought this to the fore; however the mechanics of the organisation previously needed major reforms.
This didn’t happen.
Some ideas that I have floated in the past seem to be the way others are thinking at the heart of Europe, such as the European Border Force, and a version of my idea for patrolling the Med. The EU idea is for a coastguard; my idea is for a military presence, my idea is better, because human trafficking will become armed human trafficking with military grade weapons.
The fact that the migrant crisis has left Europe politically paralysed is a bad thing, yes, we must help the genuine refugees but not those who seek to circumvent the law to gain access to Europe. My idea of detention for all is backed by European Council President Donald Tusk, he got to the position, I came to rather late, but he is here now!
With Europe in turmoil and the vote to stay in not guaranteed, Sir John Major has warned flirting with leaving the European Union is "very dangerous". I don’t think so, yes, the EU has many plus points, but the negatives cannot be fixed or addressed due to lack of will of politicians.
Major also believes that a Brexit would create a "high probability" that Scotland would leave the UK.
This is scaremongering and I don’t believe for a minute that the Scottish people will become flexed by leaving no matter how much the SNP try to use the situation for political advantage.
Why does the SNP want to remain in Europe?
They want access to the Euro and the European Central Bank.
The SNP think they can circumvent the EU membership and bypass membership articles which are a requirement for entry, Article 49; this article gives all members states the right of veto, the SNP want to try and bypass this right.
That however cannot and will not happen.
David Cameron is preparing for talks in Brussels on his reform demands, it is a waste of his time, and everyone else’s time, there is no real renegotiation, already his key demands have been shot down. He made promises and now he can’t deliver on his promises to the electorate.
It happens in politics.
Screwed by your allies!
So, we have David Cameron on a sticky wicket, his European adventure will not generate what he wants, he can’t sell failure, and now he says he "rule nothing out" if he fails to get a deal.
And he ain’t getting a deal worth a plug nickel.
Will David Cameron be prepared to recommend a vote to leave the EU if his demands are not met?
That is a tricky one, at present I am hedging towards he won’t recommend leaving but the public might not be so attached.
Sir John Major said:
"I can't put myself inside David Cameron's mind; I can tell you what my view is: my view is that this renegotiation is important but that it shouldn't decide whether or not we remain inside the European Union because of the importance of the issue. If there is anyone in the UK who ought to be anti-European and thoroughly frustrated with them then perhaps it ought to be me. I am not a starry-eyed European, I did after all say no to the euro currency in the early 1990s, I said no to the single market and in 1996 I said no to joining Schengen when it began. So I am sceptical of a great deal of European Union policy. But flirting with leaving, at a moment when the whole world is coming together, seems to me to be very dangerous and against our long-term interests."
On the basis of this, he would look like a no voter, but he rather lets himself get away by saying the UK to "head into splendid isolation" would not be "in our interests now or, perhaps more important, in the interests of our children and grandchildren and future generations".
He is a Yes voter; he is a rich Yes voter or to clarify further, he is a very rich Yes voter, he doesn’t experience the problems that ordinary working class people experience, so for him staying in is business as usual.
As to his point about being safer, this is nonsense, we are in NATO, and also we are a global power, we can trade with the rest of the World and still continue to do business with Europe.
His carrot if that what his pitch is, is very small, too small to be any use in the debate.
As to his addon about Scotland, this is such nonsense, if the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU, we leave the EU; SNP Leader Nicola Sturgeon screaming ‘material change’ would alter nothing.
And Nicola Sturgeon wouldn’t get another referendum either; her day along with Alex Salmond has gone.
To show how out of touch John Major is, he dismissed arguments around immigration, this issue is a major issue, if we cannot control our borders, we cannot control our economic or national security.
Wakey wakey John Major.
I would say with no appetite for reforms such an EU internal immigration policy, the immigration aspect is a key battleground for winning the fight for staying in or leaving. And it is an economic argument, not an issue of race as so often portrayed by the left who purport to be ‘standing up for the poor’.
I am a big fan of the EU, but if matters aren’t resolved then the people of the United Kingdom will simply vote to leave, they wish to reclaim our borders, they wish a better standard of life, they want change.
As to Scotland, there isn’t much difference in opinion no matter what the SNP try and float about there being a difference. If a case is present properly, it will convince many Scots to vote to leave.
The same could be said on the other side of the argument.
It would be politically interesting if David Cameron waded into the debate and said that we should vote to leave the EU.
But I don’t see him doing that at present; people would have to see more evidence on this issue which is shaping up to be a hot potato for 2017.
To show what David Cameron is up against, Cameron vows to get 'good deal for Britain' but Angela Merkel warns free movement and migrant benefits will not change.
So he comes away with nothing, try selling that on a doorstep!
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University