One of the falsehoods peddled by ‘Sein Fein’ SNP is that
Scotland is more pro EU than the rest of the United Kingdom.
This isn’t the case.
This falsehood has been used by unpopular Nicola Sturgeon to try and create a narrative that if the
Kingdom decided to leave the EU and a majority in Scotland voted
to stay in, this would enough reason to trigger a second Scottish independence
The SNP will not be getting a second indyref anytime soon regardless what happens in the EU referendum provisionally pencilled in for 2017.
Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP are irrelevant, look at the ‘feeble 56’ at
reduced to playing petty silly games.
In a recent poll, 55 per cent of Britons want to stay in the EU, this poll is obviously quite early on, and as such it isn’t definitive, arguments have to be developed on both sides regarding staying or going.
The EU has many pluses going for it; those pluses at this time give the pro EU side a considerable advantage. On the negative side is the loss of sovereignty aspect which has created some serious problems such as being able to properly regulate the
This referendum will probably not be a debate as some people will seek to define by race in order to shut down discussion. Yesterday, I did a blog post on why Kezia Dugdale got the issue of EU Nationals getting a vote was wrong. That post, I wrote last night at home, after sticking it up, it seems that Ms. Dugdale was out of step with people like Hilary Benn supporting the current franchise. Although there is a debate to be had on eligibility, that debate must be stand alone post referendum. I am not surprised that what some term people ‘London Labour’ aren’t backing this initiative by her. They are looking at a wider picture beyond a person standing for leadership in
Although Nicola Sturgeon has stated that a second vote on
Scotland’s future could be held if there is a
vote for the United Kingdom
to leave the EU, you will find that she will not get a section 30 order out of Westminster. The 18
September 2014 vote sent a clear message to Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland
rejects your party as the vehicle to deliver independence. As to the 2015
result, this is a backlash against the Labour Party in Scotland.
It is for them to fix their problems not anyone else.
The recent poll on Europe showed that Scots are more likely to vote to leave than those in many other parts of the
UK; this is
because the people don’t see the benefits. Each day, you can see the EU in
action, but you have to look for it, farm subsides for farmers under the Common
Agricultural Policy, European Development fund helping to build infrastructure
such as roads, working time directives to stop people being exploited by
employers. The good times don’t get the credit they deserve or the pro active
In the press, we see the bad things about the EU, bad news sells newspapers, it is rather like people tuning into Eastenders, not to see people being nice, but to watch make believe bad things happen. One of the most popular bits of bad news is the effect the Euro has had on
Greece. I have
commented that Greece
needs to bite the bullet and default on its debt, and re-introduce its own
currency and discard the Euro. The Greeks are limping along in a state of
limbo; they need to make a decision for them, not for the EU. If Greece
goes this would put pressure for the reform agenda to get that momentum which
David Cameron needs.
I have always said there is a case for staying in the EU, but equally, there is a case for leaving. I suspect that many people will have a soft vote; the people who are for in or out are pretty fixed, no argument will change their mind for a variety of reasons.
The question to be used:
Kingdom remain a member of the European
As to the suggestion by Nicola Sturgeon that the
UK could not leave Europe
if Scots did not vote in favour of going, it has no weight behind it legally,
electorally or morally.
If people in the
Kingdom vote to leave, every part of
The Scottish Conservatives said of the new poll:
“This is an encouraging poll that suggests that there is support for our position to stay within a reformed European Union. It also blows a hole in the SNP’s suggestion that there are marked divergences between
England and Scotland on this issue. In reality,
opinions on this matter are shared widely across the United Kingdom.”
As regular readers of the blog, you will know I write on the EU on a variety of topics, mostly the economic pitfalls and EU Court of Human Rights judgments. They seem the most interesting, at least to me anyway.
The Prime Minister David Cameron spent much of last week meeting European leaders to see if he could get them onboard in his efforts to renegotiate
relationship. When he dropped by Poland
to see if he could get them to support benefit restrictions for foreign
nationals in the UK,
it didn’t go well. I am not surprised that the Polish Prime Minister didn’t
sign up to his agenda on welfare, it was a non starter. Some of David Cameron’s
other proposals did receive a better reception such as reducing red tape.
As I have previously said, the
UK cannot approach this issue in
the manner that it has done. The EU needs to adopt an internal immigration
policy right across Europe, this would be more
sensible a way forward. One of the pillars of the EU is free movement of Labour;
the problem is this should be free movement of Labour to a job, not to a
I don’t think that 2016 should be the date of the referendum; David Cameron needs to try and get his reforms package through. This means hard lobbying of the other 27 Member States, if he can’t get a deal, that leaves him in a rather tricky situation. He can’t campaign for staying in and then be seen to change his mind as it sends out mixed messages. I suspect he will get reforms, but not his full package; the welfare question doesn’t look viable to me.
And if his package to voters is he has cut EU red tape, it would be a gift for the ‘out’ campaign in so many ways.
I don’t see people in the
UK opting to leave the European
Union just yet, they aren’t angry enough to have a political tsunami, and
lastly, I would think that Ukip isn’t politically developed enough to win a
Its all about knowing when is the right moment in time to capture the mood.
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University