Thursday, May 17, 2012
Iain MacWhirter opines what many in the SNP already know, the referendum date may now be a problem, win 2014 not possible, try June 2018 instead
In politics timing is everything, David Cameron when he articulated that he wasn’t fussed about when the independence referendum was held was echoing what some in the SNP are saying privately, Alex Salmond picked the wrong time.
Now, Iain MacWhirter has written about the delay is not necessarily good for the independence cause.
We aren’t living in the days of a better nation; we are living in the days of a paralysed government.
Nothing is getting done, and what is getting done at Holyrood is sheer tripe in the form of legislation with the exception of the Scottish National Police Force and Fire Service Bills.
The other 13 bills are meaningless crap.
By bouncing Alex Salmond into naming the date of sometime in autumn 2014, a knee jerk reaction, the SNP Government was forced to try and keep alive the momentum of independence.
That won’t work because just as the Scottish Government and the nation aren’t ready for independence, neither is the SNP, starting at the top and working down the levels.
On the ‘shop floor’ the SNP activists can’t articulate beyond ‘we want independence’.
If you ask them fundamental questions not only can they not supply a coherent answer to the major issues, they in part cannot understand the questions.
The reason being, the SNP is run as a middle class clique were the majority of activists are being used as the ‘little people’.
And you don’t give knowledge to the ‘little people’.
In case they ask questions!
The SNP gained councillors in the local elections but that election was a disaster, not able to capture outright the major cities of Scotland.
These City Councils were to be used as launch vehicles; the SNP campaign to run councils using a Holyrood style campaign had limited success.
Local campaigns should have been used, the reason that they weren’t is simple.
The SNP didn’t trust their people at council level to produce an effective local campaign plan.
Glasgow was a disastrous campaign from start to finish, 27 seats out of 79, the manifesto wasn’t written for the people of Glasgow, it was Sturgeon’s cronies wish list.
That manifesto was ‘lite’, I read it at the GRA when it was presented by Allison Hunter and her daughter, Mhairi Hunter, my first reaction to reading it was:
‘What’s this shite?’
Mhairi Hunter had run off 30 copies which were passed about to the assembled group, it didn’t even have a cover or an index, it was that poorly constructed.
Ms. Hunter then gave a presentation when she spoke to the room; this caused me to stop reading because her presentation was so bad I had to look up.
Instead of moving to the centre of the room to deliver her presentation, she sat at the top right hand corner and just started reading.
My reaction straight away was, had I stumbled into an 8 year old reading class?
Then came ‘20 questions’ by candidates and MSPs who pointed out what was missing.
Questions about content which both Hunters were unable to answer, their own manifesto ‘written’ by Team Sturgeon and they don’t understand the content!
Can’t even put a cover and index on it!
It’s all you need to know.
The SNP bandwagon has stalled in Scotland's major cities; Team Sturgeon cannot even turn over the engine in Glasgow never mind get it onto the starting grid for the race.
Despite the epic failure of that campaign, it also shows that Nicola Sturgeon lacks a powerbase for her challenge to be leader of the SNP.
The heir to Salmond is looking increasingly like to be coming from Dundee SNP as Stewart Hosie and Shona Robison emerge as the SNP’s golden couple.
Iain MacWhirter states:
“It takes a great deal of self-confidence to leave a union, any union”.
Behind Salmond, Sturgeon and Swinney, the talent isn’t there in depth to run an independent Scotland which brings me back to the SNP being run as a middle class clique.
All spin like wallpaper can cover up a multitude of sins; the cracks as shown in the council election are starting to be noticed by the public.
Interestingly Iain MacWhirter finishes off his piece by stating:
“Are Scottish voters seriously going to vote for independence while Europe is fragmenting into bitter national rivalries? David Cameron doesn't think so. You don't move house when the town is burning down. Perhaps the SNP should think of shelving the referendum until 2017”.
He understands that 2014 is already gone as an option for independence, he prefers 2017, assuming that the SNP will be returned as the Government of Scotland which although possible requires a change of direction.
Three defeats will happen which I predicted in a previous blog post, the SNP will lose Glasgow, which they did spectacularly. Next they will lose the independence referendum because the Scottish Government isn’t fit or ready for independence and thirdly, Westminster 2015, the General Election, disaster.
Having those three defeats puts enormous pressure on them to win especially since after the independence referendum their money and resources will run out, because they are forced to put everything into it.
Then comes austerity, cuts, cuts, cuts and unpopularity that go with it, no new ideas are being produced, the status quo is a problem and SNP Government departments are generating blowback because a tight grip isn’t being exercised by Government Ministers.
We aren’t living in the days of a better nation.
But we could be in my date of June 2018.
Changes are required.
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University