Hard Brexit Ahoy: British and EU leaders have agreed a deal, they are trying to sell it warning ‘there is no plan B’, in the House of Commons, the numbers don’t stack up for the Prime Minister Theresa May to get the EU deal through, sometimes, just sometimes, you just have to walk away and wait, British people want full sovereignty

Dear All

One of the tactics of salesmen; is to say to a punter that they will not get a better deal or equally there is no alternative (plan B). The reason for the hard sell is obvious, to end the matter, however despite the EU 27 agreeing a deal with the UK, it doesn’t seem that the deal is liked by people at home.

To say there is no plan B is wrong; plan B for the UK is WTO trading rules.

Also, there is a narrative that the EU is doing us a favour by trading with I; we buy more from the EU than the entire 27 other Member States sell to us. We are one of the biggest trading nations in world, not some backward country were the staple food is wild game and bananas.

The UK government says the will not get a better Brexit deal if they vote down the one agreed in Brussels yesterday, this is the pitch to MPs to get them to vote yes. The thing of it is that the numbers to win a vote may be against Theresa May. There are Conservatives MPs who will join Labour and others voting no. That is vote when it comes will be possibly a defeat for the PM. The parties seem at present to minded to sink the EU deal, each party it appears has different reasons.

The heads of the 27 other EU governments took just a miserable 38 minutes to sign off the UK’s Brexit deal, considering this was a milestone in EU history, you might think 38 minutes is a tad rushed.

The crucial Commons vote is likely to be in three weeks’ time, and it will see the Conservative whips working overtime in an attempt to get MPs in their own party to tow the line.

Prime Minister Theresa May has well over 80 MPs in her own party saying they will reject the deal, to say the odds are stacked against Theresa May is an understatement, but the question is what does she have to chip in, to woe the opposition? Let’s face it, she needs what is termed a ‘sweetener’, something to buy a bit of goodwill

If the PM loses the vote, where do we go from here?

Thrust into the combat of another early General election!

A change of leader in the Conservative Party!

Back to Brussels for more concessions!

Or plan B, use the WTO rules and go hard Brexit.

Time is not against the UK, it is more against the EU, if there is a bad Brexit, it damages Brussels, and with other members not happy, the idea of just walking away seems more tempting.

The PM will go to the Commons today with the message that “there is not a better deal available”, that will go down like a lead balloon, pre deal, the opposition were geared up for a fight no matter what the outcome. The Prime Minister will also brief her Cabinet on the final deal because when she speaks in the Commons, they will be doing the collective responsibility thing. Interestingly senior pro-Brexit figures, including Andrea Leadsom, Liam Fox and Geoffrey Cox aren’t making public comment which raises the spectre of positioning if there is a leadership bid from the fallout.

What is laughable is that in Brussels, EU leaders spoke of their sadness as the UK’s Brexit “divorce” was signed off, David Cameron asked for concessions while PM, he got nothing but withering contempt. So, how sad are they in Europe, sad about losing the UK as a cash cow to fund the EU.

We were paying about 20% of the entire budget!

President Jean-Claude Juncker saying it was “not a day for champagne”, given he is seen as a drunk by some, I think we can bow to his expertise.

The Prime Minister is expected to tell MPs:

“Our duty as a Parliament over these coming weeks is to examine this deal in detail, to debate it respectfully, to listen to our constituents and decide what is in our national interest. We can back this deal; deliver on the vote of the referendum and move on to building a brighter future of opportunity and prosperity for all our people. Or this House can choose to reject this deal and go back to square one.”

29 March 2019, the clock ends and deal or no deal, we are out, as I blogged in the past, I am for hard Brexit, recent comments by the French President gloating over fishing rights to me says plenty.

The Prime Minister said:

“If people think somehow there is another negotiation to be done, that’s not the case. It is the result of what have been tough and difficult negotiations over a significant period of time.”

Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, warned that “any other deal really only exists in people’s imagination”, and claimed Brexiteers who are threatening to vote against the agreement in the Commons “don’t agree among themselves what that better deal could be”. “There isn’t a plan B. The truth is what we have here is the best deal that is available both for the United Kingdom and for the European Union.”

Really?

No one gives a monkeys’ what Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister says in the UK.

Varadkar added:

“Anyone can have a better deal or an alternative deal in their own minds, but an agreement 500 pages long that 28 member states can sign up to, nobody has that. What’s on the table is the only deal that’s on the table.”

In what must be a rallying of support, his Dutch counterpart, Mark Rutte waded in to urge MPs to give their approval in a “meaningful vote” in the House of Commons. There is nothing like a couple of EU stooges who think they know better than the British people, do you believe they have our interests at heart?

Sorry, I don’t buy it!

In Scotland, Stephen Kerr, the Conservative MP for Stirling is having a go at the SNP over their opposition to the deal. The SNP want a date for a second Scottish independence referendum at their choosing, they are using Brexit as a tool.

Kerr said:

“The EU has made it abundantly clear today: this is the only deal on the table. Nicola Sturgeon’s opposition to this deal is obviously self-interested. The SNP just wants to take us back to yet more constitutional chaos – and we will oppose that every step of the way.”

If Stephen Kerr was to shine a light on the Labour Party, he would find their opposition to the deal is more in keeping with trying to force a general election. The truth is yes, this deal took a lot of time, it covers a lot, but it isn’t going to go down well with the British public. This is the problem, and the solution is looking rather likely to be to say, no deal and thanks but no thanks, we’re offski, enjoy the holidays.

Finally, there are a huge amount of EU workers who depend on the UK to buy their goods such as cars etc. If no deal happens, you will see the men in European grey suits lean on the Brussels clique to remind them who they work for. You can expect big business and the money men of Europe to show their displeasure to Frau Merkel and anyone else who thinks they are ‘it’. 

Oh to be a fly on that wall!

Yours sincerely

George Laird

The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University