Brexit deal, is it now dead; Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg threatens Prime Minister Theresa May with vote of no confidence as resignations pour in leaving her cabinet in disarray, the most damaging resignation is Dominic Raab, the now former Brexit Secretary, there are some tough days ahead for the PM

Dear All

As someone who fought for Brexit, the direction of travel was clear, that the UK should cancel its membership of the EU, and no longer be subject to its jurisdiction. Out meant out, not part out, fully out, no membership of the single market, no customs union, nothing which didn’t put the UK interest first.

The fight to win Brexit was hard, little time, hardly any resources, no real money, especially in Scotland, but the result was victory. Prime Minister David Cameron at the time, accepted the vote and resigned, when there was no need to, but he went anyway and in came Theresa May to steady the ship.

Much of the coverage of Brexit has been hysterical, but Brexit still moved forward, after all, the letter to the EU of withdrawal started a ticking clock, a clock that cannot be wound back. The battle was then focused on the ‘deal’, a deal that the PM had to sell not just to the country, but also to the Cabinet and her party. Clearly there is a gulf in the Conservative Party, and with the resignation of Ministers today, the gulf is widening.

The Conservatives do one thing rather better than other parties when it comes to changing the guard, it is swift and brutal. There is now talk yet again of a party leadership contest, this can be triggered by 48 MPs signing letters and submitting them to the backbench 1922 Committee.

In a blow to the Prime Minister five ministers quit this morning, right from the start, I said that the way forward was for hard Brexit, in effect no deal, let the clock run out and use the World Trade Organisation rules. This to me was always the best route as a rushed deal was worse than no deal.

Jacob Rees-Mogg has supported the Prime Minister as well as being a vocal critic but now this appears to have changed, he said:

"My Right Honourable Friend, and she is unquestionably honourable, said we would leave the customs union. Annex 2 says otherwise. She said she would maintain the integrity of the UK. A whole protocol says otherwise. She said we would be out of the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. Article 174 says otherwise. As what my Right Honourable Friend says and what my Right Honourable Friend does no longer match, should I not write to the member for Altrincham and Sale East?"

The MP for Altrincham and Sale East is Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee.

So, is a leadership contest in the offing, well all that is needed is 48 letters, generally win or lose the election, it is seen as a time up event. When Margaret Thatcher won her leadership battle, she was quietly told that it was over.

Last year, we were plunged into a snap general election, from my point of view, it was a success, I helped three people cross the line and displace three SNP MPs. If an election contest goes ahead, the calls for another snap election will follow suit, then the pressure will really be on the Prime Minister. Another general election in my opinion could end up a very messy affair indeed, with a hung parliament. There will be plenty people who will be losers to be sure, the question of course is who, when and where?

Here is an update on who has quit as a minister,

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46219495

Conservative Brexiteer MP Anne Marie Morris told BBC News she believed enough Conservative MPs had now submitted letters of no-confidence in the prime minister to trigger a leadership contest. The old saying, it never rains but it pours applies here, a contest is not what Theresa May wanted, but that’s politics, changeable.

In one funny moment, the Scottish secretary has been urged to quit by one of his own colleagues over the draft Brexit deal, Scottish Conservative MP Ross Thomson said "no Unionist" could support the proposals.

Why is this funny?

It appears that Scottish Conservative MP Ross Thomson is a bit of a Boris Johnson cheerleader, ever heard of riding on the shirt tails of others? I look at this as Ross Thomson angling for a Cabinet position and not being subtle about it either. If I was Ross Thomson, I would be more interested in building up support in his parliamentary seat. Scottish voters are still very fluid, and it would serve him well to wind his neck in, instead of going on voyages of discovery.

I doubt David Mundell, the Scottish secretary will attach much weight to the message by Ross Thomson.

In an attempt to appear relevant, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon told Holyrood that Mr Mundell and Ruth Davidson (on baby leave) would both now resign if they had any "backbone", and reiterated that the 35 SNP MPs at Westminster would vote against the deal. The SNP MPs would vote against any deal, no matter how good; their votes will not alter Brexit. The only impact the SNP have made in Westminster is in the ‘stock’ of the many bars on the parliamentary estate.

Finally, if there is to be a contest in the Conservative Party then that is a matter for the party to resolve. I would like to see Theresa May finish Brexit and then the people make a decision when presented with all the facts and figures. The Brexitters have concerns which should rightly be addressed, one thing is certain; there will be a lot of unhappy people at the end of this process. I have been and always will be for hard Brexit, and a return to the WTO rules, from strength the UK can move forward with confidence.

I wouldn’t rush out just yet for a candidate pack to stand for Westminster although bookmakers make Thresa May 5/1 to resign before the end of the day!

Yours sincerely

George Laird

The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University