Tuesday, July 10, 2018

Operation ‘Bigmouth’, SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford says the SNP would ‘relish’ another snap general election, who taught this fool campaigning, imagine the look on SNP Leader Nicola Sturgeon's face if she walks out of the next Count in Glasgow with her party in Glasgow reduced to just two MPs?

Dear All

Talk is cheap; one of the things which is clear to me is that SNP Westminster Ian Blackford is about as bright as an old 40 watt bulb. In an attempt to ‘big’ himself and the SNP up, Blackford says that the SNP would ‘relish’ another snap general election.

In 2015, the SNP swept the board and got 56 MPs, two years later, a snap election was called and the 56 suddenly became 35. It wasn’t just the fact that 21 got slotted what was of interest, was whom and also those others which were hanging by a thread.

The Prime Minister Theresa May isn’t going to call another snap election, and as much as Blackford and the others in the SNP say they ‘welcome’ it, the reality is that the 35 SNP MPs are in danger of being reduced even further.

Only thing which Blackford and Nicola Sturgeon are saying is that the Prime Minister’s proposals for exiting the EU failed to protect Scotland’s interests, it wouldn’t matter what the plan was; nothing would ever be good enough for them. It’s an old story, an old broken record that we have all read and heard before, and quite frankly, we are all bored with the Nationalists constant whining non stop. 

In 2017, a lot of the senior SNP were removed, including Alex Salmond and Angus Robertson, effectively the head was cut off the SNP at Westminster which is why we have this buffoon called Blackford in place. Apparently the Conservatives like Blackford because he represents no credible threat to them, those little SNP Commons stunts, nothing to worry about .it seems.

The Prime Minister Theresa May is due to publish a Government white paper on her Brexit plans next week. This will provide the British people with a bit more clarity, with the resignation of David Davis and Boris Johnson; the temperature is rather hot at the moment. The agreement reached at Chequers last Friday includes plans for a free trade area for industrial and agricultural goods, based on a “common rule book” and a “combined customs territory”, this will be looked at very carefully. One thing which people should remember is that once the UK is out of the EU, any future government is not bound by any previous agreement.

What the relationship with the EU will be post 2022 is anyone’s guess, the main aim is the cancellation of the membership, other issues can be worked out as time goes on. The attempt by the SNP to rock the boat isn’t sophisticated; it is based on them attempting to change the narrative back towards them being able to jump from the UK and into EU membership circumventing the rules. 

Elections are a dodgy business, they become even dodgier when politics is in political flux, in 2017, in Glasgow North East; Lord Ashcroft put a Labour win at 2%.  The previous MP was SNP, Anne McLaughlin who won in 2015 securing 21,976 votes. The swing was 39.31%, by any stretch of the imagination a truly uphill task to take that seat back. 

In less than two years however, the vote for the SNP was to drop to 13,395. The winner in 2017 was Paul Sweeney, the majority was 242 votes, although people had doubts, I didn’t, this was the only seat the Labour Party took in Glasgow that night.

The Labour Team was a mixture of different personalities, short of time, short of money and short of help, but they developed a belief as the campaign went on. Towards the end, even people who had been lukewarm about the prospects were geared to take the seat.

As I said to Paul Sweeney, he had the right team to win it.

The hard reality of life is the SNP in Glasgow could in theory be wiped out; they could lose every single seat that they current hold with the right preparation by the opposition. Whether the opposition is able to mount an effective ground campaign is another issue, one thing about the shock in 2017, the SNP got a wake up call.

The problem with the vote being so fluid is that everything is up for grabs, and there is no certainty at present.

Blackford was is defiant about the SNP chances of success, well lets face it, who wants to own up that many of their colleagues futures rest on an emotional vote.

Blackford said:

“The SNP are still the dominant voice, the dominant party in Scotland. We’ve been the government party in Scotland for the last 11 years. I would firmly believe that if we had to put ourselves in front of the electorate again, we’d get the overwhelming backing of the people of Scotland.”

Well he would say that!

He added:

“If we’re talking about a situation where the Scottish economy is going to be threatened and if there’s an opportunity for us to have a debate with the people of Scotland, then of course I would welcome that,” he told the broadcaster. My focus in the short term, my party’s focus…is about protecting the interests of the Scottish people. That’s about making sure that we stay in the single market and the customs union. If we faced an election as we go through that process then so be it, it’s something I would relish and something I would look forward to. I believe the SNP would come out of that in a strengthened position.”

No, they will not.

I would say that all Glasgow seats are up for grabs, some more than others, if I had to pick the two worst seats based on results, I would say that the SNP’s best chances to hold seats are Glasgow Central and Glasgow South based on the 2017 results. I struggle to understand how Blackford gets to the opinion that a snap election would see the SNP come out of that in a strengthened position.

Glasgow has seven seats, one Labour and six SNP, obviously things change, but it is possible that this result could flip to five Labour and two SNP, in 2022, however, there is a glitch; the previous year is the Holyrood election. The SNP as they stand at present could end up with the most seats.

The opposition still needs to get its act together.

Finally, in politics it is not uncommon to talk yourself up and that of your party, Ian Blackford, I don’t see as a credible source or fountain of knowledge.

The SNP has falling support, they have seen people stop donating to them which is why they need the Westminster ‘Short money’ to keep them afloat. One thing which would happen, if there was a snap election, in Glasgow North East, the SNP put up Anne McLaughlin, it would be another loss to Paul Sweeney, she isn’t good enough by a country mile.

Imagine the look on Nicola Sturgeon's face if in 2022, she walks out of the Count in Glasgow with her party in Glasgow reduced to just two MPs?

Yours sincerely

George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I never thought for one moment I would see the SNP as a danger to Scottish people and Scotland. The party is fraudulent. They are fake; at least Lie@bour had the decency to call themselves New Labour. All the SNP appear to be interested in is virtual signalling, very PC in everything they do but ignore real problems in Scotland like food banks, hidden unemployment, lowest life expectancy in the western world, highest drug deaths in Europe, child poverty. The list goes on.

People like Sturgeon would put normal folk off politics for life.