Dear All
Elections are a funny business because the public can be
fickle, when the Westminster expenses row blew
into the open; it ushered in the SNP as the government in Scotland back
in 2007. A minority government, then through good PR, the SNP crafted a false
image of competence which wasn’t the reality; many people including myself were
taken in. The outcome of the 2011 election was a majority for the SNP, this was
never supposed to happen in Holyrood but it did, and then everything in
government of any real note stopped happening.
I would say that from 2012 to present day, the SNP
government has been a failure to act, a failure to change, chiefly everything
was abandoned for their Scottish independence bid. 2015 saw the SNP sweep the
board because of an angry electorate who supported the SNP, less than two years
later, the 56 SNP MPs found at the snap election of 2017, that their popularity
had dropped to 35.
The 35 SNP MPs found a different political landscape to sit
in, Brexit had happened and their place at Westminster and indeed in Holyrood was
looking irrelevant. Events were happening but the SNP found them being
marginalised, this was due to their attitude towards Westminster .
In 2017, like in 2011, I found myself in four election
campaigns, in both those elections; I managed to help 3 out of 4 candidates
cross the line to win.
In some cases that was a hard slog, but it is what it is, in
political campaigning in a polarised environment you have to keep your wits
about you.
According to a poll, the Scottish Conservatives would win
almost three times as many Scottish seats as Labour; this is on the basis if
there was a general election held tomorrow. The Electoral Calculus website
predicts The Scottish Conservatives would get 11 seats, while Scottish Labour
would get just four with 27 per cent share of the vote. Having hit rock bottom
in 2015, anything upwards for Scottish Labour must be seen as progress or luck
or disaffection with the SNP, or a combination of any of those variables.
At present, there are 13 Scottish Conservative MPs in Scotland , they have benefited from the swing
away from Scottish Labour who under Kezia Dugdale looked weak in the Union . There are 7 MPs from the Scottish Labour
Party and 4 from the Liberal Democrats. In Glasgow North East, the winning majority
was 242 votes, a close result which was due to an extraordinary effort by the
activists who came out to support Paul Sweeney, although he doubted he would
win, I didn’t at all. Sitting on 242 votes extra is a win, but if Scottish
Labour was to end up on 4 seats, Glasgow North East would have to be a Labour
priority in Glasgow
to the exclusion of all other seats in the city.
Here is a wiki list of whose who as an MP.
The forecast, I feel is wrong, was based on crunching polls
over the last two months involving more than 3000 people. I don’t see the SNP
doing well, but by the same token, I don’t see that the effort has been put in
by others on the ground to make an impact especially from Scottish Labour.
There still seems to be a lack of a vision from Scottish Labour which has ended
up talking in clichés.
A Scottish Labour spokesperson said:
“This research confirms that it is Labour - under the
leadership of Richard Leonard and Jeremy Corbyn - who are now the
clear alternative to Tory austerity and SNP complacency.”
If a snap election was held tomorrow, I think the bookies
would have their money on a Conservative victory. Scottish Labour back in 2015
was in no fit state to campaign, hence they got slaughtered, in 2016, nothing
much changed, in 2017, the Scottish Labour Party benefited from disaffection by
voters towards the SNP.
Hardly a winning strategy!
The Electoral Reform Society campaigns for a more
proportional voting system, however, there won’t be the change that they want,
people like First Past The Post, at least in Westminster elections. If you look at the trash
that gets in on the Holyrood list system, you can see the appeal.
Although the Electoral Calculus used polls covering 10,000
people to forecast Labour would come 0.2 per cent ahead in vote share in a snap
election, I don’t see that being reflective of the actual result, although as I
mentioned the Conservatives would be the bookies choice by a huge margin. Their
management of Brexit may not be razzle dazzle but it is competent, and the
public won’t sign up to various Labour politicians’ plans for staying in the
single market or the customs union.
Willie Sullivan, Director of Electoral Reform Society Scotland , said:
“This analysis shows that Westminster ’s democratic deficit continues to
get worse. This situation would be absurd- but not unprecedented. Two elections
in the second half of the last century produced ‘wrong winner’ results. Now it
looks like it could happen in Scotland .
That’s not democracy, and does all of Scotland a disservice.”
Mr Sullivan added:
“London ’s
broken electoral system is holding back the will of voters. It is simply
unacceptable that in the 21st century, we still face the prospect of the
largest party winning fewer votes than the other side.”
People always talk about the will of the voters especially
when they don’t like the results they see at the ballot box, and as Mr Sullivan
was ex Labour in so far as my understanding, people may wonder if his vision is
clouded.
Nancy Platts of the trade union reform group Politics for the Many added:
“For Labour to potentially secure more than a quarter of the
vote in Scotland but get just 7 per cent of seats is a sign of just how rigged
Westminster’s voting system really is. The system looks increasingly rigged
against working people’s voices, with the Tories unfairly benefitting from the
vote-wasting machine that is ‘First Past the Post’.
Platts added:
“This analysis showing just how unfit for purpose the
one-person-takes-all electoral system has become – serving the old boys’
network while workers’ interests are trampled on.”
No one compels people to vote, there is no law to force you
to do so, moving the goal posts because you don’t like the way the game is
played is risible, I don’t remember the Labour Party calling for election
reform when in 1997, the Labour Party swept into power. If political parties
want your vote they should work for your vote, they shouldn’t take it for
granted because they say they are ‘Labour’ or ‘Conservative’ or Lib Dem’, if
they don’t serve you why vote for them.
Too many people are disengaged from politics and voting
which is why we have such a bad political system, and the wrong people getting
in. Every person standing for election for Westminster or Holyrood should win their seat
in the area they are standing in by a majority of the vote.
I would abolish the list system entirely at Holyrood.
The law on UK-wide elections is reserved to Westminster, I
see no reason to change it because I like many would have a suspicion that ‘change’
would indeed lead to the vote being ‘rigged’ in favour of ‘centre left’ parties.
Scotland
still remains in political flux, parties like Scottish Labour who could count
on having secured heartlands can’t do that any more; they have to work for it
now if they want the win.
I have noticed that one thing which is sparse on the ground
is experienced political activists who are willing to come out and do the ‘long
haul’ for Labour on the doorstep. The Scottish Conservatives have a spring in
their step due to their success, after being so long in the wilderness, they
don’t want to go back onto the back foot and return to being the third party of
Scotland .
Finally; this quote by a Scottish Labour spokesperson is too
good to pass up, they said:
“This research confirms that it is Labour - under the
leadership of Richard Leonard and Jeremy Corbyn - who are now the
clear alternative to Tory austerity and SNP complacency.”
Presumably they are discounting the Lib Dems and Scottish
Greens, of
course, if you asked them what the ‘clear alternative’ actually meant, they couldn’t
tell you, not a sound strategy for future success.
Yours sincerely
George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University