Friday, June 2, 2017

SNP squeaky bum time: Top SNP figures in danger of defeat to Tory gains, Angus Robertson and Pete Wishart are in the political crosshairs as they stand a good chance of being picked off, Scotland needs a ‘Portillo’ moment, as parties rush to stick activists and resources in key target seats, this election is the year of ‘tactical activism’


















Dear All

There is an old saying, justice will eventually catch up with you; and for the SNP; there is a pressing need for the public to remove some of the SNP duds who have been sent to Westminster.

The SNP’s work record at Westminster is poor!

You could be charitable and say start up problems but the problem goes much deeper that plain ignorance, the SNP are a party who by their very nature cannot work with others. There is an arrogance of superiority which just doesn’t stand the test of scrutiny, cheap gimmicks; clapping, singing and being lazy are all you could pull from the 2015 stint by the Nationalists.


Voting records don’t lie!

Figures showed many Nationalist MPs claiming far more in expenses than the people they replaced and the kicker is that their work rate is below average.

How is this ‘Stronger for Scotland’, the SNP gimmick to fool people that their MPs are champions working out in the cold light of day?

People were duped!

And it isn’t just the real non-entities who aren’t producing, no, it goes right up to the top of the tree, Westminster leader Angus Robertson and his fellow veterans Stewart Hosie and Pete Wishart did not ask a single written question according to the official records.

This snap election has caught many people on the hop, coming straight after the council election; there aren’t a lot of people kicking about the place to help. It is an open secret, that the Scottish Conservatives in some places such as Glasgow North East and Glasgow North West have effectively got ‘paper candidates’ standing in this election. The Scottish Conservatives are putting a lot of eggs in the East Renfrewshire basket, you can see this by their twitter feed, Conservative candidates who should be pounding the pavements in their own seat, camped out in East Renfrewshire.

Resources are scarce and people are even more valuable than money, although the Conservatives are swimming in cash compared to other parties such as Scottish Labour. In some areas, we are seeing a three way fight but with the ‘paper candidates’ of the Conservatives in Scotland being drafted elsewhere, we get the classic two horse race.

Glasgow North East is a classic two horse race between the SNP and Scottish Labour, the Conservatives although third in 2015, aren’t even close not even the swing can fix this for them, and with Jack Wyillie being AWOL, not even at the hustings, you can tell how where the priorities are. On the Glasgow North East seat, I think that the Conservatives should have given the seat to someone who was willing to make a go of it, they would still have lost but they at least would have put up a fight. Imagine going on stage knowing that you didn’t even try, which is what Jack Wyillie will do on election night. I have met him, and he comes across as a reasonable guy, we even campaigned in the rain together during this election (more on that in my election special).

The resources of the political economy are such that they have to be carefully managed, but sometimes having a big name can cover a lot of cracks. In this election, Scotland has a rare chance to create a ‘Portillo’ moment. When Michael Portillo was done in at a General election many people cheered loudly, losing was in his case the best thing that ever happened to him politically.

I would even say, he became a better person.

Many people, and I include myself would really like to see some of the top SNP figures who are in danger of defeat to Tories get what they deserve and be put out on the bricks. Everyone wants to see SNP’s deputy leader, Angus Robertson as the highest profile casualty of this General Election. I don’t know about you but when a pompous git gets what is coming to them, the World just feels like a better place, you get a little faith back in humanity.

An exclusive poll findings put the Scottish Conservatives on a possible track to get eight seats, this translates to a two-decade high for them, they have failed to win more than a single Scottish seat since Tony Blair’s landslide in 1997. So, they see this election as a real comeback chance, if they can win Westminster seats, they stand a good chance of cracking Holyrood seats, and they have a goal, attempting to take control of Holyrood.

As you know, and as the polling shows, Scottish Labour is struggling badly against the SNP, although there are good candidates, there are also duds standing who don’t deserve the time of day never mind the vote.  

According to the Electoral Calculus projector, Tory seats would be gained at the expense of the SNP which isn’t a revelation, several polls have shown a surge in support for the Tories in Scotland because of their pro Uk stance, after Kezia Dugdale dropped the ball on Unionism, the Conservatives just scooped it up with no problem. If anyone has helped the Scottish Conservatives, it is Kezia Dugdale, she also helped the SNP, but so far hasn’t managed to help her own party.

The Scottish Labour Party hasn’t the money, the activists and the resources, said it before, say it again, they need a new campaign model, and aren’t in a fit state to campaign. That problem needs to be addressed post election or given the way they operate probably not, as long as the leadership have paid elected positions, there is no sense from what I see of urgency.

If constituencies such as Aberdeen South, Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, as well as Dumfries and Galloway are seized by the Tories, it will be because they targeted resources at the expense of other areas. In Moray, Angus Robertson is defending a 9,065 majority but polling suggests strongly he will fail to be re-elected. In Perth, Pete Wishart has a real fight as well, Ian Duncan MEP is up against him, he is the Conservative candidate and he also has a good record as an MEP to draw on, and of course, the real test, he is willing to go try hard for the win. You have to like the attitude of someone who is taking this seriously, as he is going, Wishart has been an MP for a long time but this time, he really does face a test.

Rural Scotland is where the Scottish Conservatives are sticking their activists and cash, it could pan out them; eight seats aren’t to be sniffed at. One funny thing, this is from Ruth Davidson, she said that the defeat of Robertson in Moray would be “a real Ed Balls moment for Scotland”. Ruth Davidson should be afraid to embrace that Robertson getting slotted would be a Portillo moment, we all know this kind of defeat is a Portillio moment, use the correct terminology, don’t go all ‘poundland’ with a second hand cheap knock off.  


This is Michael Portillio’s defeat, you can clearly see, the boy is gutted.

Polling these days is a risky business; we have seen the polling get it spectacularly wrong the BMG polling put the SNP on 38 per cent, the Scottish Conservatives on 25, Labour 16. I don’t think the polling reflects the Labour position as others put them on 25% and neck and neck with the Conservatives.

The fight is still on for the parties, this campaign will probably be known more for the way that Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour targeted their resources and activists and how some candidates were either effectively abandoned or transferred to help out in places such as East Renfrewshire.

In this election, I have an interest in several seats, Moray, Perth, Ayr, Glasgow North East and East Renfrewshire for various reasons. Seeing Angus Robertson get stuffed would be a hoot, but one thing to remember, in elections, the best candidate doesn’t always get elected.

The proof lies in the Westminster voting record, and verbal and written questions asked, and as we see with the SNP, they might as well not be there for all the good they have done in the last two years.

Finally, nominations for SNP Deputy leader are possibly about to open up, Angus Robertson if he loses will not be eligible....... as Jean Luc Picard famously uttered:

"Make it so"!

Yours sincerely

George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University 

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

"I don’t know about you but when a pompous git gets what is coming to them, the World just feels like a better place, you get a little faith back in humanity."

It was true in 2014 when the smile was wiped off Salmond's face post-referendum, and still true now. Hell, even many who dislike/disliked Trump agree on this after Clinton lost.

(Al C here, commenting as anon because my laptop signed out of my google account without me asking - argh! - but here it is.)

Anonymous said...

London born half German, fake Scot and fake Scottish nationalist. Wants to flood Scotland with immigrants. Good riddance to trash.

Freddy said...

As luck would have it George I'm working next Thursday as I have been for most of this election campaign :(. I'll be watchuing intently for a few moments such as those.

Anonymous said...

hahahahaha

G Laird said...

Hi Freddy

Get the popcorn in, you will need this as the results come in.

George

Aldo said...

Exit poll then bed. I can't handle the all nighters anymore. I'll set my alarm early and hopefully see a healthy tory majority + big Agnes given the boot.

Anonymous said...

Maybe you can help.

My understanding is the Scottish parliament was intended to have a four year cycle. That - I believe - was changed because of the coalition and timing / interference of the 2015 GE.

Now that Mrs. May hasn't ended that conflict, is there any possibility we can get back to the 4 year term again?

If so, have you any in incling of political moves to do that? Or are we lumbered with 5 year terms forever?

Regards, Dodie.

G Laird said...

Dear Dodie

I see no reason why not, but you will always get anomalies which throw the election timetable out the window.

Have you by chance read this:

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/bill-extending-holyrood-parliamentary-term-five-years-introduced

George

Robbie said...

Angus Robertson is the WORST MP that Moray has ever had. He is a big headed leech that embarasses Moray. Moray has done MORE to fill the pockets of Robertson, than he has ever done for Moray. THROW THE BASTARD OUT ON THURSDAY,, HE''S A USELESS WASTE OF SPACE, AND THE PEOPLE OF MORAY CAN NOW SEE THIS. ROBERTSON OUT.

D Stewart, said...

Con: 354 (+24)
Lab: 214 (-18)
SNP: 47 (-9)
LDem: 12 (+4) Britain elects, latest GE voting intentions.

Yes: 42% (-1)
No: 50% (+2) Britain elects, latest Scottish independence voting intention.

Yougov crossbreaks for Scotland are – SNP 36 – Con 30 Lab 27.

Survation Full Scottish
SNP 40% : Con 27% : Lab 25%.

Any comments Mr Laird? Pretty much inline with your findings at this stage?
Personally it would give me more than a wry grin if St Nic led her party to below 40% and lost some of her more annoying cohorts along the way.

G Laird said...

Hi D Stewart

“Any comments Mr Laird? Pretty much inline with your findings at this stage?”

One thing which I am sure you have picked up on is that Labour and Conservatives are putting resources into target seats. I would suggest therefore that although the polls are interesting, the universal picture of gain can’t be taken at face value into a straight translation of seats. In some areas, the Conservative candidate exists on paper.

Down in Ayr, Conservative Bill Grant is a serious contender, his team is really well prepped up and bonded, so somewhere to watch for an upset. In the small villages, where it was old coalmining, the reception on the door was positive. I was told this was an area that few Conservatives feared to tread in the past. Some of ex SNP voters also willing to vote in Bill Grant, which has perked up the Conservative team’s interest, there is a sense of change in the air.

I understand that his SNP opponent isn’t having a good election.

“Personally it would give me more than a wry grin if St Nic led her party to below 40% and lost some of her more annoying cohorts along the way”.

If that happened, the SNP would wonder how something turned so bad so quickly.

Let's wait and see how things pan out, near the end now, just a final push.

George

Aldo said...

Five year terms help us. It means that anti SNP sentiment has a chance to properly build up before the next Holyrood election. Then, when we get rid of them, they stay out for a long time.

Aldo said...

I worry he will still sneak it. FPTP is a real stinker of a system. You need people to stand together who wouldn't normally do so to get rid of the halfwits. That means the halfwits stay, unless monumental change happens. 50% to 40% is not monumental change.

But we can but hope!