Monday, December 4, 2017

SNP’S ticking election time bomb, support for Scottish Labour grows after party elects left-wing leader, Professor John Curtice says “Scotland has gone from being a land of safe seats to a land of marginals”, SNP MP Chris Stephens better get triple ply toilet paper on Westminster expenses, his arse must be about to collapse just as his re-election chances are looking rather bleak

Dear All

One of the things which needed to happen and was most important in the recent Scottish Labour leadership contest was the election of Richard Leonard as leader in preference to Anas Sarwar. If Anas Sarwar had become leader, it would have been a gift to the SNP, although the press love to use the term ‘moderate’ when describing the right wing of the Labour Party, these people aren’t.

If you have any doubts why you should have voted for Richard Leonard, then this story tells you all you need to know.

Anas Sarwar’s campaign was a disaster, and this final cherry is the tin lid in my opinion, Anas can’t ever again try and attempt to be the ‘man of the people’ because patently he isn’t and never was, his window for being leader like Ken Macintosh has gone.

The news of Richard Leonard is bad news for the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon, the tale of the tape in a recent poll shows why, support for Scottish Labour has grown under the new leader. The revelation may have taken some people by surprise but not me, after being dropped to being the third party of Scottish politics the polls, the Scottish Labour Party has moved into second place.

This means that a raft of sitting SNP MPs right across Scotland face losing their seats when a Westminster election happens, such as Chris Stephens in Glasgow South West and David Linden in Glasgow East.

Imagine going into Xmas and thinking, in a few short years, they could be facing the bitter taste of defeat and unemployment. Of course, we are a good while away from either a Westminster or Holyrood election so in theory there is everything to play for; the Scottish Conservatives now have a problem.

In the last couple of elections, they did rather well, especially at Westminster but the thing in politics is momentum, and the Conservatives need to address an obvious flaw in their thinking, you can’t win Holyrood if you take your ‘foot off the gas’, although the Scottish Conservative MPs fixed the vat problem with Police Scotland, they need to go a lot further, so far, the evidence isn’t there to see Ruth Davidson win in 2021.

Westminster support for the SNP sits on 37 per cent, the same as the party polled in June so after six months, they still haven’t made an impact, although Labour has increased by one point to 28 per cent, the direction of travel isn’t certain, Scottish Labour still isn’t in a fixed state to campaign, despite various factions popping up claiming that they are the future. What is interesting to me is that the Scottish Conservatives are down four to 25 per cent, it seems that Scottish Conservatives need to be doing ‘things’.

In case you don’t know what ‘things’ are, this is things for the poor and disadvantaged, what they will probably grasp is that they have a need in Scotland for social conservatism rather than liberal conservatism.

Although Scottish Parties are fixated on Holyrood due to their leaders being elected there, the Scottish Labour Party has a mountain to climb, SNP lead on 39 per cent for constituency voting intentions, followed by Labour on 25 per cent. As things stand at present, we are looking still at minority SNP government in my opinion unless events change, and currently, I see no evidence of a shift that see Labour being installed with a minority at Holyrood but by the same token, I don’t see the SNP with the help of the Scottish Greens pulling off a majority coalition either.

Professor John Curtice said even a marginal change in support could have a big impact on future elections and he is right, ‘one man can make a different’.

He said:

"Scotland has gone from being a land of safe seats to a land of marginals. Even a change of just one per cent could see some seats change hands."

Scottish Labour MSP James Kelly said:

“As we saw in the General Election, voters are coming back to Labour. The SNP and the Tories offer nothing but division and despair at Holyrood and Westminster. Labour in contrast has inspired voters across the country with a vision of hope and real change.”

He added: 

“It is no surprise to see people in Scotland thinking the Tories will not make a success of Brexit, with Theresa May’s negotiations in Brussels lurching from bad to worse. This unstable and divided government is increasingly being pulled apart by hard-right Tory MPs who are determined to deliver Brexit at any price to working people. Labour is determined that our economic future should be at the heart of Brexit negotiations, offering businesses and workers the certainty they need that their rights and protections will not be traded away.”

This may sound interesting to people who don’t know better but in Scotland, Scottish Labour need to be focused on the SNP rather than trying to cast their nets too wide, the ‘story’ gets diluted when you have too many parties in the mix, and to be honest it just sounds too much like poor political spinning.

Although uncertainty over Brexit has some people worried, these people need to cool their jets, Brexit despite the press hype of doom and gloom is ticking along nicely; high drama may look good on the telly, but when it comes to real money, a deal is on the cards.

So, the verdict is as John Curtice says:

Scotland has gone from being a land of safe seats to a land of marginals”.

I think this revelation when it starts to sink in might mean that SNP MP Chris Stephens along with his office dug, Jonathan Mackie start buying triple ply toilet paper, their time to start shitting themselves starts now.

Yours sincerely

George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University


Anonymous said...

Labour has a big problem. People have memories. I can’t see many from my generation ever voting labour again. The only thing going in Labours favour in Scotland is our horrendous low life expectancy, especially in ex industrial areas. I’m 59 and can honestly say. The memory I have of Blair/Broon lie@bour years makes Thatchers term look good.

Aldo said...

Can we now start to plan the post SNP/Green Scotland? Will an SNP minority government be left to twist in the wind or is a more radical approach needed - a unionist coalition - with an understanding that the smallest two unionist parties will give confidence and supply to the largest one?

I think there should be a summit of lib/lab/con to decide all this. It could be called 'Scotland after the SNP'.

It would really wind them up! Haha!! :0)

Al C said...

In other words, "there's everything to play for and the next four years to play it in" then?

Except for the SNP of course!