Dear All
If you have learned anything about politics over the last
few years, you will know one thing about what is happening in Scotland ;
everything is up in the air. You can take nothing for granted and huge success
can turn easily into epic disaster. 2015, the SNP using the tidal wave of
indyref took 56 seats at Westminster, it was a reaction to defeat, no sooner
had the SNP settled into the Commons, they started making an arse of
themselves, which translated in 2017 into losing 21 seats.
The public is fickle.
2015 vote for the SNP was an emotional vote, after all how
can you explain massive voter drops like 9,000 etc in seats, you could be
tempted to say that the opposition had ran a great campaign but in the main
that wouldn’t be accurate as luck certainly played a part, and also the
weather.
It is said that Ruth Davidson is leading a Scottish Conservative power
surge at Westminster .
Firstly, she isn’t an MP so isn’t leading anything, she doesn’t have a vote, it
is true she can claim credit for the wins, but, the public is fickle. The
Scottish Conservatives were given an opportunity, an opportunity by Unionist
voters who traditionally voted for other parties.
Those votes are on loan.
If she thinks that Theresa May needs to start winning the
battle of ideas, then it seems to me at least that if there is a battle, there
by definition needs to be troops.
Ruth Davidson has 13 troops, two of whom, I helped get into Westminster in a relatively
minor way, Paul Masterton and Bill Grant. So, Theresa May made a mistake, but
the mistake wasn’t just down to her, it was a team effort down the road, with
the Conservatives having a 20 point lead, they thought that they would win a
huge majority.
The public is fickle.
If you remember my back posts, I said, I didn’t understand the
logic of going again, to me it seemed a silly thing to do, why have a fight
with someone you don’t have to, and for little gain and much risk.
If, I was Ruth Davidson, I don’t think I would be warning Theresa
May's lieutenants that the Prime Minister owes her position in Downing
Street to the party's resurgence in Scotland . This makes her a hostage
to fortune, because if there is an upset, the entire blame rests at her feet.
And once you nail you colours to the mast, you make a rod
for your own back, I have to say her statement of her urging May to "lead
or lose" is rather odd, it certainly isn’t what I would be saying either
in private or in public. The Scottish Tory leader is arguing that “capitalism
needs a reboot”, that might be a trendy thing to say but there are also other
issues which do so as well, and they are equally as pressing.
Davidson is said to be keen to use her influence to direct
Tory policy towards a more socially liberal approach, a softer, "open Brexit"
and policies that address directly the concerns of younger voters. Corbyn
managed to get the young vote in large numbers for Labour down south.
If we are talking about a socially liberal approach, then by
definition the place to start must be the DWP and how they treat people. As to
a softer, "open Brexit", if that in any way detracts from
leaving the EU or hanging on to policies like the disaster that is freedom of
movement, that will be not acceptable to the British people. A majority voted
to leave the EU, to take back control of our laws and to restore social cohesion
which has been badly damaged not just in the UK
but also in the rest of Europe .
Some times being a leader means you need to stand back and
be a team player which is essential and also learn to not shout the odds
because sometimes things don’t need to be said.
This comment should be remembered from a well-placed insider,
they said:
“We met Gavin Barwell,[the PM’s Chief of Staff in No 10],
and made clear to him that if it wasn’t for the Scottish Conservatives, Theresa
May wouldn’t have a majority.”
Technically that is true, it is also true that the Scottish
Conservatives wouldn’t have a great result if it wasn’t for the assistance
given to them by others and also the failures of Kezia Dugdale’s leadership.
I assume we all know that bunny?
What I find funny is that the group of Scottish Conservative
MPs would not seek to bring the Government down and would loyally take the Tory
whip because they wanted to see Mrs May continue as PM “at least until the
Brexit deal is done”.
Think back to the arrogance of 2015, the SNP thought at that
point they were the new establishment, two years later the World had turned,
who is to say that after Brexit and if there is a new election the 13 Scottish
MPs would get returned again?
Their position isn’t secure by any means.
It is true to say that the public don’t like weak government
which is why the SNP under Nicola Sturgeon is doing so badly, so Ruth Davidson
saying the May Government "has to actually lead" if it wanted to
survive isn’t specific to the Conservatives.
Some time ago, I said that Ruth Davidson has her eyes firmly
fixed on Holyrood and was wanting to replace Nicola Sturgeon as
First Minister at the 2021 Scottish elections.
At present, this is wishful thinking, if you were to say
anything about what the possible outcome of 2021 at this juncture you would
have to go with hung parliament, certainly not a win for Ruth Davidson. The
Unionist card played well for the Scottish Conservatives but they need an
emotional response by voters to get their 13 MPs in the door down the road.
Can the Unionist card be used again in 2021 with success?
As to Ruth Davidson being a potential replacement down the
road for the Conservative Party, a sunny day doesn’t make a summer, there is a
long way to go before anyone, especially the ‘men in grey suits’ sit down to
discuss her future. Apparently, there are senior Conservatives who believe Ruth
Davidson is just what the UK
party needs to boost its chances of victory at the 2022 General Election. Maybe
these senior Conservatives should pay a lot more attention to what happened to
the SNP and how success turned so quickly to disaster in about two years.
Yours sincerely
George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University
2 comments:
Hello George
Right on the nail as ever. Ms Davidson has clearly allowed herself to be persuaded by her admirers that she has single handedly turned things around for the tories in Scotland and saved the government from a disaster of it's own making. All she has actually done is profit from a backlash against la sturgeon. She may continue to do that in the future. However, as you rightly point out, she can take nothing for granted.
It appears to me that there is very wide spread public discontent across the Western world and the long established political models may be modified or even swept away. I think there is likely to be unprecedented turmoil and uncertainty for some time to come,
Happily, here in the UK, we are better placed than many to ride out the storm. God bless the English channel.
Auld Jock
May needs to get us out of Europe while keeping the UK together. Once she does that, she can hand over to a competent successor (hopefully David Davis), and this should place the Tories in a strong position heading into the next GE. Ruth Davidson's role in all this is clearly defined - help May achieve all of the above while continuing to run rings around the SNP. I like Ruth but she needs to keep a level head and not make things hot for her own party.
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