Dear All
I said it before, and I will say it again,
the Labour Party needs to change its policy on Brexit, if proof was needed, the
continual polls show that the Conservative Party are clearly in the lead by a substantial
margin with their policy. So, for the cheap seats, the Labour Party needs to be
pro Brexit, without this, there can be no level playing field. From a Scottish
perspective, the first Scottish opinion poll is proving more than disappointing
to Scottish Labour. If this polling holds up, the data suggests the party
stands to lose all but one of its seats in Scotland. Although
personally, I think there is an area of margin within this result. In Glasgow,
there are many marginal seats, and to say that of the seven seats held by
Labour in Scotland, only Edinburgh South's incumbent Ian Murray would return to
the House of Commons doesn’t paint the full picture.
I would also expect Labour incumbent Paul
Sweeney to hold Glasgow North East.
I also expect Scottish Labour would possibly
be in a good position to secure a second seat at Glasgow East. Why Glasgow
East, well, the SNP Candidate David Linden in securing more TV exposure just
comes across as weak, brainwashed and clueless.
Andrew Neil of the BBC literally destroyed
David Linden on policy and substance.
Why do people think they can walk into an
interview with Andrew Neil and just waffle? The youtube clip is a rather
painful lesson on the dangers of being unprepared and facing an expert
interviewer. If you don’t know your subject, don’t cross into unknown territory
and expect safe passage. David Linden wanted to up his profile, and he did, he
came across as clueless, rather than garnering votes, I think his appearance harmed
his chances of holding onto the seat. He could be one of the minor SNP scalps
to fall on the 12th December.
I think, there is a better than average
chance of two seats in Glasgow being won by Scottish Labour, not reflected in
the polls nor at the bookies.
Data and analysis are good indicators, but
one thing you cannot rule out of the mix is the emotional element swimming
about in the back of people’s minds. The Panelbase study for the Sunday Times
predicting a wipeout for Scottish Labour is nothing new. Prior to winning his
seat in 2017, Labour candidate Paul Sweeney was 16/1 at the bookies, he was at
the start of that campaign thinking a good night was to cut into the SNP
majority, but I knew different.
Glasgow North East of all the seats in
Glasgow; was the only seat in Glasgow I said would fall in 2017.
George Laird right again.
This election is more complex than the 2017
variety, but you can look beyond analysis towards the human factor or ‘feel’
you get from canvassing, general chatting and more importantly listening.
Politicians love to talk, but if you don’t listen to your audience, you are
missing the wider picture. Strathclyde University Professor Sir John Curtice
says, the SNP are on course for another electoral win in Scotland, his opinion
is that they will see their seats rise from 35 to 41. This is still a
decent result but nowhere near the 2015 result of 56 MPs. The dam was broken by
Conservatives and Labour in 2017, but the ability to capitalise or develop the
brand over the last two and half years hasn’t fully exploited.
The pitch by both Labour and Conservative
should be that they can deliver want the SNP cannot from Westminster, this is a
strength the SNP don’t have, and will never have, the SNP cannot shape
Scotland, only the parties of the Union can do this.
So, why aren’t they doing this?
Because no one is thinking this, that’s
why.
Panelbase puts the SNP on 40%, the Conservatives
on 28%, Labour on 20%, and the Liberal Democrats on 11%. It is easy to notice a
bounce in the step of the Scottish Conservatives, and 28% must bhoy them up no
end, but Scottish Labour on 20% must set heads scratching.
After all, their manifesto has a lot of
appeal to it.
One million Scots voted for Brexit, and they
had the whole Scottish establishment ranged against them, their voices have
been ignored. They will be keen to vote for a party that can win a seat, and
deliver Brexit. The Brexit Party chances in Scotland are in my opinion … nil.
Yes, Brexit Party candidates are standing but they don’t have enough people to
mount a Westminster campaign, and importantly, they will have no ‘long
campaigning’ behind them in communities. Their votes per seat will probably average
out in line with what Ukip would get on a good night.
If you look at this election, the SNP is
running the same campaign against Scottish Labour that it did in 2015 and 2017,
convincing Labour voters that they will work with Jeremy Corbyn to put a Labour
Government in. But the fly in the ointment is that a Labour government must
give them what they want when they want it. Basically a blackmail-esque type of
arrangement, and not even subtle about it! The trick, or ploy however isn’t about putting
a Labour govt in but merely a device to shut Labour out of Scottish seats.
The Scottish Labour Party hasn’t ever
addressed this SNP trick of them hijacking traditional Labour voters, but they
need to. Scottish Labour needs to go backwards, backwards to the days of John
Smith, not just for inspiration but also for faith. The lessons of 2015 and
2017 haven’t been learned, and if you can’t learn from the past, your chances
of having a future are diminished.
If you want more painful reading on Labour’s
plight, then I suggest this article.
The Conservatives are on track to win
the general election with 349 MPs, how many of them from Scotland are reckoned
to be about 12, down one from 2017.
Finally, is it too late for the Labour
Party to alter course on Brexit? Without a level playing field, the chances of a
Labour govt seem remote. A landslide by the Conservatives will be a sore lesson
for the Labour Party to learn about Brexit. Especially if they are sitting in
Westminster with a predicted 213 seats, and only one MP in Scotland. Personally, I think we are looking at more than one Labour MP in Scotland, I don't have feel of SNP return to the heyday of 2015. I am
thinking that two Labour MPs will emerge from Glasgow, Glasgow North East and
Glasgow East on the night of the count.
They will have to work their socks off for the win,
but it is doable.
Yours sincerely
George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow
University
4 comments:
I reckon that the elephant in the room is Brexit. Labour have not woken up to get their arse into gear to win back their Scottish voters, the Tories are making some slow gains on the SNP but not quick enough so far, possibly same reason as Labour, and the Brexit party are just a protest vote one-issue party. If Labour did a quick U-Turn on Brexit they might stand a chance, but I doubt it's going to happen.
Watched Blackford intw on BBC usual swarmy bullshit as usual. SNP are hoping for a Labour government but I can't see this. Labour need to rid themselves of Corbyn sharpish if they have any hope of power.
Agreed that Labour and Conservatives have failed to exploit the 2017 pushback and that they should play up the power of Westminster.
Wrt Conservatives, their problem is the only thing they conserve is opposition policy. As Robert Dabney wrote over a century ago:
‘[C]onservatism is merely the shadow that follows Radicalism as it moves forward towards perdition. It remains behind it, but never retards it, and always advances near its leader. … It is worthless because it is the conservatism of expediency only, and not of sturdy principle.
The devolution model, as I’ve written here before(*), was the wrong model and has manifestly failed in its stated aims of settling nationalist aspirations and decentralising power, instead promoting petty-nationalism and division across our Kingdom (note calls for English, Cornish, Yorkshire and Wessex devolution/separation) and only ‘off-centralising’ power (quasi-national police, fire service, etc). There is nothing Holyrood can do that cannot be done far more effectively either at the local, community level or by Westminster—Hr is an expensive and entirely unnecessary layer of government. (E.g. fishing. Let Orkneys, Lerwick, Fraserburgh, etc. run their own affairs as far as practicable as they used to; matters outwith their competence (negotiating treaties defining fishing grounds, despatching RN vessels to protect our fishing grounds, etc.) can be brought to the attention of Westminster, whose proper preserve those powers are. Hr is too remote, geographically and metaphorically, from the fishing industry to run it competently, and it does not have the powers to protect or negotiate fishing grounds.)
Yet the Conservatives will utter not one word against it.
Tim Luckhurst argued all the way back in 2001: ‘Even in the celebratory mist that greeted its creation, a good quarter of Scots remained bitterly opposed to the Scottish parliament: 614,400 voted no to any kind of devolution. The Tories can only dream about that level of support. But that was then and much has changed. … No, there is no majority for abolition but there is a growing minority which would rush to vote for a party which said “Enough. We told you it would be a disaster and it is a disaster. We promise to repeal the Scotland Act.”’ (Luckhurst, T. (2001) Turn again, Scottish Tories.” Spectator, 286(8997), 16–17.)
18 years later, who knows if there is a ‘majority for abolition’? No-one deigns to ask us; but there is increasing discontent with the SNP’s antics and Hr’s failures, and 2017 was the first time since 1992 Conservatives beat that figure of 614,400.
Yet the Conservatives make little effort to build on their 2017 result, and their attitude to the SNP and Hr is reminiscent of an elephant terrified of a mouse.
(* Although I was wrong in stating ‘not even the Swiss allow their cantons to run their own police forces’—they do.)
Labours manifesto is good. It’s a shame labours core vote has lost faith and doesn't trust them. Who can blame them? Anyone remember the joy when Labour won in 1997 and what did we get. More Thatcherism. Policies so awful that even Mrs Thatcher wouldn't contemplate. It was Labour that introduced benefit sanctions, welfare to work, atos and food banks. As a socialist I’m voting Tory. Never again will I be conned by fake socialist and fake trade unionist.
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