It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, UK plunged into another Westminster general election, given Brexit hasn’t been delivered, are we looking at a hung parliament, Boris Johnson has bet the farm on an outright win, is this a gamble too far?

Dear All

Firstly, I am glad to be back, I am at the halfway point with my surgeries, so, whoopee!!!!!!

In my absence, the political world as we know it has certainly taken a weird turn in the UK. Here we are nearly at the end of year and we are plunged into another general election, an unwanted general election which will see the back of quite a few people as they lose their seats. Of course no one has a right to a seat, that’s a gift from the public, but we are at a crossroads, Brexit is still not done.

We are at this position because MPs who agreed to abide by the result reneged on their promise to the voters. Campaigning has started but, you don’t get a sense of the public being onboard yet. So far everything is low key, as the weeks drag on however; the political class will be attempting to turn on the heat. Those who didn’t honour their word on Brexit will be doing everything possible not to talk about it during this campaign.

This campaign in the UK is a Brexit election campaign!

The big question is once the smoke clears, who will be the UK government, will there be a majority for Boris Johnson, will we be in the same pickle we are now or will Jeremy Corbyn be a surprise winner.

Here is some numbers I found on polling.

CON: 38.0% (+1.4)

LAB: 26.0% (+1.5)

LDM: 16.7% (-1.2)

BXP: 10.2% (-0.9)

GRN: 3.4% (-0.6)

The Conservatives seem to be way out in front, and despite a small Labour surge, the headway really hasn’t been closed. Basically the Conservatives appear to have a steady lead around the 12% mark.  

The other party of unknown quantity in this Westminster election is the Brexit Party. I would say that their aim is to target as many seats of remain MPs, especially Labour in England. If you think back to the European election, the Brexit Party polling 18% in Scotland, however, lack of direction, manpower, resources and time will probably not yield any seats in Scotland. Between the Euro election and now, the Brexit Party in Scotland hasn’t been active in any real sense.

The Lib Dems are backing that their opportunism will pay after the damage done by Nick Clegg, however, don’t expect to see them in a coalition with the Conservatives in government, not at least post this election. The Lib Dems and Conservatives can’t square the Brexit circle to make a deal. Could they be kingmakers for Jeremy Corbyn? As more polling becomes available, maybe this is a question which might be floated in the media. At present, they have 21 MPs, but only 12 were elected in the 2017 election. The others are defectors from other parties and I expect them in the main to lose their seats in this election.

I don’t know about you but I am looking forward to a ‘portilllo’ moment for Chuka Umunna!

So, what about the Scottish aspect, polling favours the SNP which is the fault of the other parties who appear to be lacking direction and a vision. Prof John Curtice, the well known pundit reckons the SNP will end up with 48 or 50 MPs. Prof Curtice has touched on the fact that many seats in Scotland hang by a thread which is true. Glasgow East 75 votes, Glasgow South West 60 votes and Glasgow North East 242 votes (held by Paul Sweeney).

Prof Curtice said something which highlights this election as being risky for both the Labour Party and the Conservatives.

He said:

"I think the safest prediction is that we will have a record number of non-Conservative and non-Labour MPs in this parliament. The SNP look set to win the vast majority of seats in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats given their position in the polls should do extremely well. We expect Caroline Lucas and the Green Party to hang on to her seat. We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties. That matters for two reasons. The first is that it makes it difficult for either Conservative or Labour to win an overall majority if you're taking the fact that 100 of the seats are already spoken for.

He added:

"Secondly, it matters because this is an asymmetric election. It's an election that Boris Johnson has to win. If he does not get a majority or something very close to it, he will not be able to stay in government because the Conservatives do not have any friends elsewhere. The Labour Party, by contrast, at least has the possibility of doing a deal with the SNP, a deal with the Liberal Democrats, getting support of the Greens and maybe even the DUP not standing in their way. Bear in mind, this is not an election that Labour have to win to stop Brexit, but it is an election that they and the other opposition parties simply need to deny the Conservatives a majority”.

Finally, I think the phrase, ‘Monte Carlo or Bust’ applies to the Conservatives in this election; can you imagine the uproar on the 13^th if there is another hung parliament? You could be facing the prospective of that and a re-run next year. One thing about this election, expect it to be an angry bad tempered affair because each side will be taking the gloves off. Alot of fun if you are on the sidelines; but less so if you are stuck in no man’s land without a plausible explanation why there is no Brexit.

This will be the ‘blood and guts’ campaign.

Yours sincerely

George Laird

The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University