Brexit Chaos in The Brexit Party, has Nigel Farage been too clever for his own good, the risk of a hung parliament could emerge as a consequence of his actions, in a Scottish context, his actions could assist the SNP in key marginal seats, latest polling is Cons 39% and Labour 31%, within margin of error for hung parliament, spring election anyone?

Dear All

Given the Brexit Party intention to stand against all Labour MPs, and I assume that includes Scotland, I thought I would given an opinion on their chances. In the recent EU election the Brexit Party polled in the region of 18%. This was in part due to the fact that one million Scots voted in the EU referendum of 2016. It was also helped by an effective small campaign run by a group of dedicated people such as myself who passed on their experience to people who previously hadn’t been activists at all. This helped to push the Brexit Party over the line to secure a seat for Louis Stedman-Bryce. It should be noted that people from other parties achieved this for the Brexit Party.

The Brexit Party since their creation hasn’t been active in Scotland, they don’t have the people, they don’t have the data where their vote is or who; they also don’t have a track record. In many ways, their venture into this general election is missed timed, Westminster campaigns require a ground operation in constituencies; the old saying ‘boots on the ground’ is very much an unspoken truth. People have to know you are a serious player, and you can do that in a number of ways. You can push leaflets through the doors, you can canvass, you can hold meetings, you can canvass and you can hold street stalls.

If you don’t have enough people or experience, then you have to construct a bespoke campaign based on resources. You will get a mail shot from the Brexit Party, if they are standing in your area, but you might also get a leaflet as certain areas will be targeted. Depending on your knowledge you will try and pick an area you think will have support and also where you consider your vote is.

The Brexit Party doesn’t know where their vote is, and even if they did, there still isn’t enough of it at constituency level to win a seat. In Scotland, no Brexit Party candidate will get elected, but their presence could in marginal seats affect the Labour Party and allow the SNP to either gain or hold a seat. Given that Nigel Farage says he is for the Union, his Brexit Party tactics in Scotland could in theory boost the SNP.

One thing which I agree on is when former MEP David Coburn when he has said that Nigel Farage has ignored Scotland. This was evident when Brexit Party leaflets where being handed out earlier at the EU election. I noticed that there was a complete lack of Scottish content which given the political situation in Scotland was a mistake.

Having quit the Brexit Party, the former MEP said:

“I am sick and tired of Scotland being ignored and sidelined within the Brexit party and I no longer have to keep quiet.”

If you look closer at the Brexit Party emails sent out, training sessions are all based in England, and also so it appears are all the events. Quite literally, the Brexit Party has completely focused on England, which despite the hype doesn’t help their asserted pro UK credentials. Although there is a Brexit Party MEP in Scotland, so far he hasn’t really made an impact, but in this election he is standing in Glasgow North East. Because, he is tasked with not winning the seat but to stop the Labour candidate get elected.

Just as David Coburn is urging voters to back the Labour candidate in his home patch, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, previously held by Gordon Brown, Lesley Laird,( no relation). I want the people of Glasgow North East to keep the faith with Paul Sweeney.

Finally, this election is complex, probably more than any other you have seen fought in recent years; it will be a roller coaster ride because so much is at stake. When the dust settles, the winners will sigh with relief and hope that they can get a full term of 5 year under their belt. Nigel Farage’s strategy could help the SNP in key marginal seat but it will not produce another Conservative MP but simply displace Labour. Here is a thought to wonder, in trying to be too clever, Nigel Farage’s action could end up giving us a hung parliament.

Yours sincerely

George Laird

The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University