Dear All
Mai oui!
It looks like a disaster for Nicolas Sarkozy, the French President is in trouble.
The trouble for Sarkozy stems from many fronts, but right up there is economic despair both at home and in the Eurozone.
In all fronts Sarkozy is fairing badly.
Towards the latter half of his campaigns he decided to go more right wing, the person kicking him up and down the French countryside and towns is a left winger.
This are going so badly that Sarkozy could be the first president to lose a fight for re-election in more than 30 years, it is a real possibility.
It is hard to be popular when people hate you and Sarkozy like Blair thought he was in with the bricks, however, a wrecking crew has turned up to fix that notion.
Sarkozy like Blair was all about showy style but as much as hype may get you into power, reality is the currency to keep you there.
People are angry about his failure to bring down unemployment; this led to his anti immigrant policy to get rid of illegals by deportations to appeal to them.
However, he hasn’t clicked that substance is needed, EU reform, the development of an internal immigration policy and other structurally reforms, rather than seen as a man with a vision, it was short term thinking to try and solve a short term problem.
People saw through that straightaway, it may be too late to turn the tide as his Socialist rival Francois Hollande has a double-digit lead.
Hollande, 57, has tapped into the feelings of the people with promises less drastic spending cuts.
Another feel good idea is higher taxes on the wealthy to fund state-aided job creation.
Hollande wants a 75% upper tax rate on income above €1 million (£810,000), this is populist but not well thought-out in a practical sense. It is however good electioneering, if not clever policy.
If Hollande does the business, he would be only the second left-wing leader of France since Francois Mitterrand.
France needs change, not just someone shouting the slogan with nothing to back it up, the EU is in trouble, major reform of institutions are needed and whoever delivers that narrative is in a strong position to be credible to the French public.
As the incumbent Sarkozy says he is a safer pair of hands for future economic turmoil, the unemployment figures don’t bear that out!.
In 2007, Sarkozy was seen as a man providing a vision to many workers and young voters on his 2007 pledge of more pay for more work.
These same people are now deserting him as jobless figures hit a 12-year high, he isn’t delivering on his pledge and when people realise that, its represents a tipping pointing.
At present, that tipping has almost been reached with many voters.
Helene Boudot, said:
"Sarkozy's divisive. Hollande's reassuring."
Helene Boudot who is 85 was voting in her village of Chailland in western France.
You might find this comment aptly sums up the Sarkozy Presidency.
France is struggling with weak economic growth, a gaping trade deficit, 10% unemployment and strained public finances leading to ratings agency Standard Poor's to cut the country's triple-A credit rating in January.
When people become fearful, the start to look around, Sarkozy has style but he doesn’t have substance.
And more and more French people are waking up to that fact, but this is an election, anything can happen.
Yours sincerely
George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University
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