Dear All
The race for Number 10 Downing Street has begun, however
like Wimbledon tennis championships, prior to
that main event, there is a primer. In the case of politics, the primer for who
will be resident in Number 10 depends on what happens with Brexit. There is a
little matter of who will be next leader of the Conservatives to be decided,
between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. In reality if you look at this contest,
it was always going to boil down between these people.
A clear cut contest between, Brexit and Remain, between,
establishment and anti-establishment!
What is needed is a Brexit Prime Minister who is willing to
walk away without a deal from the EU.
This little gem caught my eye which to me casts doubt on
whether the UK
will leave the EU on the new deadline of 31st October. Nigel Farage is
said to have had a secret meeting with the Conservatives in an exclusive Mayfair club. The talks are said to concern a secret pact
to keep Labour out of No. 10.
Now, given the next election isn’t until 2022, you can see
why such a meeting would raise eyebrows. If Brexit is delivered on 31st
October 2019, in three months, the Brexit Party wouldn’t have a reason for
existing. This meeting of Nigel Farage with pro-Boris MP Priti Patel also flags
up the possible notion that an early General Election is being considered by
the Boris camp.
Given what happened in the European Election to the
Conservative vote, you would think that anyone who becomes Prime Minister would
wish to run the clock down on their premiership to the 2022 election.
If you ask why, the main reason is to build some momentum
around their brand, preferably with a record of success, particularly relating
to Brexit. Of course the European Election was a disaster as well for the
Labour Party but they had other issues plaguing them such as the ‘civil war’
between the left and right for control of the party.
One thing to look at seriously is that electoral strategists
for both Johnson and Farage are working out how to maximise support for Brexit
in a General Election. If you look at the last by-election, it is true the
Brexit party done well. We should also remember the by-elections are ‘specials’
in that people from all over the country would come to it to volunteer. In a
General Election, the Brexit Party would be at a major disadvantage in a first
past the post fight. Firstly, they really don’t have the ground operation in
place; neither do they have enough people on the ground or behind the scenes.
The European Election was fought in part with people who
previously were in other parties, and in one case, was in another party.
The Brexit Party also don’t know where exactly their vote is
in an area as they don’t have a database of voters’ information. They also
don’t have the time to construct one or the people to do the legwork to make
sure their data is up to date. Add to the list, they don’t have the structures
in place to run a traditional constituency campaign for Westminster . They don’t have local knowledge
and they don’t have enough experienced activists who know how to cover an area
quickly and in the most logical manner.
There is to be another by-election down south which may or
may not shed some more light on how the Brexit Party operates. The lack of
‘long campaigns’ by the Brexit Party however is a major problem, because ‘long’
campaigns are where you build up your support. If you throw in lack of
policies, you will see that Nigel Farage who climbed a mountain in the European
Elections, was really in the foothills, the real mountain is climbing Westminster . Social media
will take you so far, rallies will take you so far but the blood and guts of
doorstep campaigning and stalls are needed; people need to see you out and
about in their area for you to be seen as viable.
And you have to be seen as viable.
One of the dangers of having a pact as seen in the
Cameron/Clegg arrangement of 2010 is that one side ends up losing support
badly. The Lib Dems under Nick Clegg basically were turned on by the public in
a most spectacularly way. This is something which must have dawned on Nigel
Farage, is it likely that there could be a Conservative/ Brexit Party coalition
if there was a hung parliament in 2022? Well it is possible, but the Brexit
Party support relies heavily and exclusively on the fact there is no Brexit.
What would their support be if they attained their goal of ‘hard Brexit’? Would
their support drop, highly likely as politics would return to normality, but
the question is what level of support would that be in a post Brexit UK ?
A mechanism for a pact apparently centred on discussions on
a deal under which MPs in an administration formed by Johnson would agree to
stand aside in certain seats in favour of Farage’s party. The idea would be to
avoid splitting the pro-Brexit vote. In Scotland , the Brexit Party managed
to get 18% of the vote share in the European elections, this put the party
second in polling. The problem in Scotland is different, you have to
factor in the SNP and as polls show, they appear set to retake seats they previously
lost in 2017. If the same vote share held for the 2021 Holyrood election, there
would be a Brexit Party list MSPs, but no FPTP seats. So, would the Brexit
Party in Scotland fight the Scottish Election of 2021 for Holyrood or would
they bypass it altogether if they think they would lose momentum for 2022
Westminster? Or is another scenario that they only put people up on the list
system only, if they get anyone then they milk it for all its worth.
Decisions, decisions, decisions!
When you look at the Labour Party, the ‘civil war’ between
the left and right hasn’t gone well, toss in Brexit and a few other factors and
you can see major hurdles in Jeremy Corbyn’s task to form the next Labour
Government. One of the tacks in his shoe is people such as David Miliband who
wants to block Brexit. Miliband has come out full-heartedly for a second
referendum, saying the public must be given a chance to change their minds.
Like what happened to the Irish, Miliband wants to cheat the people of the UK out of the 2016
EU referendum result. His hope is to try to get a win and thereby remove the
pressure and blame off the political elite who keep stalling the process. Some
people like Caroline Flint, who represents Leave-backing Don
Valley , have warned that
the party risked losing 40 MPs to the Brexit Party and Conservatives if it
failed to honour the result from 2016. Isn’t amaziong how concerned some people
are about democracy when they stand being ejected from Parliament by the
people? If you are a Labour MP in the North of England or Scotland , you have your work cut
out to stay in public office.
One time David Miliband was seen as the possible ‘saviour’
of the Labour Party, now, he is like someone wanting to toss Jeremy Corbyn an
anvil in the deep end of a swimming pool.
A second referendum is political poison to the Labour Party,
having wrongly sat on the fence which caused a drop in support; they now back
the wrong option of a second referendum. In Scotland , Labour leader Richard
Leonard climbed on board with this option after the European Election which saw
the party plunge to 9.5% of the vote and no MEPs.
Anyone think David Miliband is a ‘saviour in waiting’ of the
Labour Party?
Labour MP Caroline Flint is right to warn the party risks
losing dozens of MPs and she vows to back No Deal if necessary, it is amazing
how the right motivation can push people toward doing the right thing. The
right motivation in the case of Flint
is keeping her seat, personal survival when you head is on the chopping block
does wonders. Caroline Flint is aware of the new reality relating to Brexit,
‘we are leaving’. The constitutional crisis is real, there is no other game in
town bar Brexit, everyone knows it, particularly in the Conservative Party.
Finally, whether there is a pact between the Conservative
Party and the Brexit Party is still a dream, even if these people are meeting
at a £1,500-a-year private members’ club. I don’t believe that this was an
accidental meeting because I doubt that Nigel Farage, Arron Banks, DUP MP Ian
Paisley Jr and pro-Boris MP Priti Patel just all collided one night. But, it
does make you wonder if there is a Boris Johnson premiership will he opt for an
early election? You can’t help but remember what happened when Theresa May went
to the country in 2017 and how that turned out.
Personally, I would run down the clock!
Yours sincerely
George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University
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