Dear
All
If
you think back to the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum, the SNP wheeled
out their supposed big guns, singers, actors and various personalities. The
idea of their presence was quite simple, it was endorsement. Given the SNP
attempt its due, the 'official' rubber stamp of celebs that indy was a good
idea in theory, some of choices however weren't. What we know now from
their disastrous campaign is, the 'white paper' for indy was a lie,
650 pages of deception of a golden age nirvana which couldn't and wouldn't
exist, and the SNP politicians lied straight down TV cameras. The SNP not only
endanger everyone of us, they did so at multiple levels. Scotland's health
service would have been drastically cut, ushering the way for private health
care to move in altogether. Pensions, mortgages and savings would have been
placed in real danger, our council services would have been destroyed, in fact
the whole country would have been a financial basket case for something like 40
plus years minimum. It is worth noting, the SNP leadership would not be living
in squalor, they would be craving their generous 'entitlement' as they sat at
the top table. The SNP don't believe in independence, they believe in a
Scotland under the control of the European Union. In fact, their first order of
business would be to apply for membership, probably without a referendum, you
see the people of an independent Scotland would be 'shut out' of politics.
In
the recent Holyrood polling, the results weren't unexpected, in fact, some
parties were expected to do badly, and they helped this expectation by running
dreadful campaigns. The biggest loser in my mind was Scottish Labour, with the
right wing back in control of the party in Scotland, they hope that people will
forget they were the reason for not voting for the party. Since the election,
Anas Sarwar hasn't set out a vision for changing Scottish Labour, and I
personally doubt he will do so, you see a re-vitalised party, especially in
Glasgow places his leadership in danger. I don't expect internal change in the
Scottish Labour Party, this year, they would have to start now, get it done in
six months, then attempt the council elections. After that, depending on
results, maybe, and it is a slim chance, they might do a review between 2022 and
2024, the Westminster election is important in the political life of Anas
Sarwar as leader, if he loses 3 straight elections in a row, his position is
untenable. Scottish Labour has had dreadful leaders for nearly 20 years, since
the deaths of the 'old guard'. You cannot compare previous Labour leaders with
today's Holyrood replacements, does Anas Sarwar stack up against Donald Dewar,
obviously not, Robin Cook, not really, what about John Reid, or Helen Liddell,
it is a whole different class. Some people might think that Anas Sarwar could
be the 'face' of opposing indyref 2, well no is the short answer. During the
2014, just as Yes Scotland was run by the SNP, Better Togther was chiefly run
by Scottish Labour people, but the collapse of the party's vote, now makes them
not in consideration for a lead role.
The
person who is trying to carve out a role for himself in Scottish politics is
Gordon Brown, as a former Prime Minister, he has the kind of weight that Anas
Sarwar doesn't have. However the problem with Gordon Brown isn't his previous
baggage, it is the fact he is pushing an agenda. That agenda is federalism.
Federalism doesn't solve the problem of defeating the SNP, it is a route that
weakens the UK, and plays into the hands of the SNP. The SNP take any devolved
powers, even if they don't use them properly. It isn't the constitution that
doesn't make people vote for Scottish Labour, it is the people they have
adopted as candidates that doesn't make people vote Scottish Labour. Ever
constitutional disaster can be laid at the door of the Labour Party. They made
a massive mistake with devolution, then and now they think they can fix their
mistakes with federalism. They are like the guy who hammers in a nail into the
floor, bursts a pipe, and then think wrapping rubber hose round it and
tightening it off solves the problem. The real change to our current problems
is changing Holyrood, curtailing the SNP activities, and holding them
accountable for their spending, just in the same way that the SNP do with councils.
Recently,
Prince William met with Gordon Brown to discuss independence, the meeting
was held in secret it was alleged, and contents of the meeting weren't made
public. The information available is that they discussed independence. At the
same time, Gordon Brown has re-launched his Our Scottish Future think tank as a
pro-Union campaign movement. I suppose the obvious question is this a proposed
vehicle of a new Better Together MK2. One thing which we should all never
forget, the opposition parties in Scotland have been utterly dreadful, both
inside and outside of parliament. The people who have been doing the real
fighting against the SNP Government have been groups and bloggers, groups like
Scotland Matters and The Majority, Scotland in Union, and a host of other
groups on Facebook. In fact, if you pop along to the Our Scottish Future
website, you can see them borrow a phrase used extensively by George Galloway during the Holyrood
election, “Open the Books”. Although this phrase is trendy, it is also
the route to take down and curtail the activities of the SNP Government. It
seems £2.7 BN of UK funding has gone missing, well technically the money isn't
missing, it appears it has been held back. Any extra money from Westminster
must be 'ring fenced' for the purposes it was allocated for, this measure has
to be a 'triple lock' so the SNP can't siphon it off for their pet projects.
I
suppose in some ways the meet of Prince William and Gordon Brown may look odd, after
all, in the seven years since 2014, Gordon Brown didn't hang around Scotland,
he didn't even fix the Labour Party in Scotland. But, here he is as a possible
leader, and we are all expected to follow him? The nub is, if he gets
appointed, either self or by others, does that mean he will bring his
federalism baggage with him? Also, federalism is a Labour Party 'baby', along
with the Lib Dems, and looking at the 'board' of Our Scottish
Future, this bares that out, one of the people on the board is Ming Campbell.
Also sitting there on it is former MSP Jenny Marra, which kinda flags up that
Our Scottish Future is just another vehicle used by the right wing of the
Labour Party, much in the same way as the Fabians and Progress. All these wee
groups however have one thing in common, nothing to do with the Scottish
people. Ultimately, they are part of the same discredited philosophy which sees
people as to be 'managed' but not represented. The right wing of the Labour
Party wiped out the party in Scotland because they wouldn't represent people. I
am sure everyone knows of someone who sought help from their elected Labour
representative and didn't get it. The return of the right wing controlling
Scottish Labour isn't a return to the golden days of Blairism, it is a clock
which will run backwards, the same as support will for the party. Scottish
Labour needs to become a centrist party, the two extremes pulling at it, helped
its decline.
One
person who thinks that there is a benefit protesting the meeting of Prince
William and Gordon Brown is Alex Salmond. Oh, just to be clear,
Salmond and Brown are both privy
councillors so pop along and see who's who, some of the names may
surprise you. The role of the privy councillor is to provide advice and views,
so in effect, William's meeting with Brown, even on independence concerns isn't
a big deal. It was fluffed up due to the lack of formal publicity beforehand
which led to the secrecy tag being flung about. Salmond has accused Prince
William of "poor judgment", but equally the same charge could be said
of Salmond, the difference is the "poor judgment" of Salmond could
actually be made to stick. Although the public position of Royal Family is said
to be neutral, personally I think in private that they have already picked
their side. On the constitutional debate, the Royal Family stand with the
people of Scotland, the majority, the people who wish to stay part of the
United Kingdom. I suspect if anyone is doing anything dodgy then it is Salmond
using Prince William for publicity for him and his party for the upcoming 2022
council elections. The Alba Party is keen to be seen as the alternative to the
SNP, and it is only a matter of time before they start to cut into the SNP
vote. A lot of people thought Sturgeon will bring forward indyref 2, but she
won't. Nicola Sturgeon wouldn't be bring forward any illegal referendums
either, not after the Spanish experience, and just an update, the appeal court
in Spain didn't show mercy to the plotters. Jail time in Spain could equally
apply to Scotland if an illegal indyref 2 was held, and it would be jail for Sturgeon,
by the book, and special prosecutors. In defence of the meeting, Kensington
Palace confirmed Prince William had been listening to views on independence
from different communities.
In
a new video to Alba members, Salmond said:
“What
on earth Prince William thought he was doing having a confab with Gordon Brown,
just as Gordon set up his last campaign for the Union... We’d be foolish indeed
not to read the tea leaves in this sort of thing. In the run up to 2014,
largely because I saw the argument for continuity of social institutions in
these islands, we were extremely keen to keep the monarchy, the head of state,
out of politics. I think the Queen has done a marvellous job and a
lifetime of service. We should have no hesitation about seeing in that meeting
with Gordon Brown what seems to be the preparations for doing what is
absolutely extraordinary, which is to have a constitutional monarchy looking at
and directly discussing aspects of the constitutional debate which should of course
be left to the people. It would be enormously wise of the Royal Family to
follow what has been the Queen’s example over her long reign, as to keep the
monarchy over and above politics.It does seem extraordinarily foolish to have a
situation where it can even be said that the monarchy, the future head of
state, is involved in the Scottish constitutional debate.”
Well,
if tea leaves is the basis of knowledge, the good stuff, the 'Tetley' is that
Prime Minister Boris Johnson isn't going to grant a second independence
referendum under his watch. It is highly likely that that Boris will be PM for
at least a decade. Gordon Brown's Our Scottish Future will probably be working
on federalism plans and modelling, because indyref 2 isn't being granted. One
thing Boris and his advisors probably know is the pro UK parties in Scotland
haven't got the manpower and human resources to mount a campaign. The collapse
of Scottish Labour isn't just about seats in Holyrood, it is also about the
collapse of the party's activist base. Just as a war is won by experienced and
season troops, the Labour Party in Scotland is hollowed out, the Lib Dems are
effectively a party in name only, and the Scottish Conservatives need to do a
major recruitment drive. Did you notice, that during the Holyrood election in
Glasgow, the same faces in different parts of the city, I did. In Glasgow, some
people were just literally paper candidates for the Scottish Conservatives. The
SNP 'work' areas hard, the pro UK parties don't do enough, that is the bottom
line.
Anyway,
Salmond added:
“Back
in 2014 David Cameron made a last ditch desperate and failed attempt to drag
the Queen into politics. The Brown meeting shows poor judgment on both sides
but the same degree of unscrupulous unionist desperation. The independence team
should take note. It is quite clear that the forces of the union, David
Cameron previously, and now Gordon Brown, have no compunction in getting
themselves ready and set for what is coming in the next referendum campaign.
However, the Scottish Parliament elections have left them in a state of
disarray. That is why the case for Scottish independence must be progressed now
as a matter of urgency. The Tories at Westminster are surprised that they are
not already facing a renewed constitutional challenge and are wondering what on
earth is going on. It would be infinitely better for the independence side to
seize the moment and strike when the iron is hot to progress the constitutional
issue. ”
You
see, Salmond pinpoints it, when he says, "the Scottish Parliament
elections have left them (pro UK) in a state of disarray", basically what
he means is the party organisations are dire, they don't have competent people,
and the activism base has gone. I suppose you could add the desire to do the
hard graft needed for building an activist base is also not there. Salmond's
plan is simple, he wants SNP members to straight transfer over to his Alba
Party, to do this, he needs oxygen via the press. As he condemns the Prince
William/ Gordn Brown meeting, he also highlights that Alba will reschedule its
first annual conference because of a higher than expected attendance to a
bigger venue. Although Alba only polled 1.7%, you should note that they entered
the Holyrood race too late, something which they realised later. As they start
building their brand, they have announced a series of “interim” appointments
pending conference. Chris McEleny as Alba general secretary, Lynne Anderson and
Caroline McAllister will coordinate the 13-strong Alba councillor group, and
former MP Corri Wilson will be membership convener.
Mr
McEleny said:
“Alba
is Scotland’s newest and fastest growing political party. Our membership
numbers are rising week on week since the Scots Parliament elections. Alba can
make a valuable contribution to the independence case, particularly in ensuring
it is put forward with immediacy, strength and determination. We are all
excited about the prospect of building a new party which will abide by our
aspiration of living in the early days of a better nation.”
It
would be a mistake for pro UK people to dismiss Alba as a protest or pressure
group, as time marches on, people will drift away from the SNP into their
party. Alba has a game plan, they want the 'women's vote', and they will be
working hard to get it. Once the SNP rams home their lgbt agenda on the Gender
Reform Act with the help of the Scottish Greens, give it time and there will be
a backlash. You see at some point, men will be stripping off in women's
personal spaces, stark naked. There will be incidents which make the press, and
presumably the courts, and once enough angry women get together, you can expect
a long running campaign, Alba will be there to position themselves as women's
rights champions. It is pretty obvious that Salmond wants vote caches, just as
he targeted the Muslim vote, he will target the women's vote. It was clear when
he placed women centre stage of his party.
Finally, in life, things happen, the Prince William meeting with Gordon Brown isn't significant, the reason is simple, Prime Minister Gordon Brown and his 80 seat majority. What is happening in England politically is more interesting as the result of the Hartlepool election showed. The Labour Party is in trouble, I suppose that is reflected in their choice of candidate in the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election. The election is a major test for Keir Starmer's right wing leadership, although there is talk about a contest against him, if he loses Batley, his leadership may face a left wing challenge. Labour held the seat until Traci Brabin stepped down as an MP after winning the election to be Mayor. The Labour candidate is Kim Leadbeater, she is the sister of murdered former MP Jo Cox, this is prompted some people to say that Labour is going for the sympathy vote. In the 2016 EU referendum, Batley and Spen voted 60% in favour of Brexit, so unless Leadbeater is an ardent Brexitter, her chances are severely diminished. The Hartlepool by-election was a watershed moment in UK politics, as it flag up more working class people were willing to vote Conservative than vote for the Labour Party. I will be taking a two month break off blogging, back in August, I need a rest, I need to get some personal issues done, and I need to study. Enjoy the summer, the good weather has arrived at last, and we all could use a holiday.
Yours sincerely
George Laird The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University