Dear All
Think back to David Cameron as Prime
Minister, he goes to Brussels to attempt to get 5 concessions which he hoped
would make the British people vote to stay in the EU. Do you remember this, it
was significant. The EU said no to everything, which made the former PM then
attempt to move the goalposts to something else. The new goalposts also got knocked back which
proved the whole EU adventure was to be a disaster. The EU had it in mind to punish
the UK as much as possible and publicly humiliated it. The reason is simple, punish the UK and put
fear into other member states that they will get likewise if they decide to
leave.
The EU miscalculated the mood of the British people which as we know resulted
in a vote to leave.
Boris Johnson as the new PM faces a hard
task to leave the EU, external enemies abroad, political enemies at home, and
even within his own party. The EU referendum did flag up one significant thing,
the myth of representation. How many years have you voted for a party under the
banner that you believe that they represented you and you believed that when
they gave their word it has weight? Now, we find out that far from representing
the people, there are some people in British politics who align with foreign
powers over the people.
Boris Johnson will this week undertake his
first foreign trip as Prime Minister to deliver an ultimatum to Germany’s
Angela Merkel and France’s Emmanuel Macron: scrap the Irish backstop or see
Britain leave the EU without a deal on October 31.
If David Cameron failed, then the odds of
success by Boris Johnson remain highly dubious, since the 2016 vote, the EU kindest
hasn’t changed, it has hardened; no deal but their deal is their mantra. I have
always thought that hard Brexit is the only viable option that makes sense, why
waste time trying to changed closed minds.
The clock is ticking towards the 31st
October; that is the date we are supposed to leave, we should prepare for WTO
rules and get on with it. Boris Johnson, if he fudges this will become a man
with few allies, Brexiteers will not understand, and the only winner
politically will be the Brexit Party. The Brexit Party maybe selecting
Westminster candidates, but if there is a no deal Brexit, they lose a lot of
their political meaning. Whether they then fold as a party is a matter for
Nigel Farage, however, I suspect that they will end up hanging around at least
until after the 2022 General Election for Westminster.
Boris is off to the G7 summit, a gathering
of world leaders, but the man he is keen to talk to is Donald Trump, the US
President, see him is a priority, interestingly he is seeing Merkel in Berlin
before meeting French President Macron in the capital of France, Paris, the
French much like the Germans are unwilling to compromise. No 10 expects there
would be "very little discussion" of Brexit during the two
foreign visits but other topics would be discussed.
Everyone knows where everyone stands.
The German Government apparently now
accepts that there is a “high probability” the UK will leave the EU without a
deal and that it is fully prepared for such a scenario. They might say it, but
I don’t believe it, and you add into the mix a possible German recession, you
will see a bit of internal German problems pop up. Germans aren’t going to like
having to pay more into the EU especially when they are suffering. Such a
scenario is only going to fuel the right with parties like AfD set to gain
support. Merkel is on her way out, she is running down the clock until she
leaves after her term, but she leaves office having made Europe weak, divided
and with considerable social issues.
For now, both sides, the UK and the EU27,
are digging in, who will blink first, well Boris can’t. The money tap is about
to be turned off from the UK. When that happen Whitehall insiders believe that
Brussels will blink when it realises that MPs will be unable to stop a no-deal
Brexit. After the recess for the annual party conferences there will be less
than four weeks to go before Brexit Day. Although Harold Wilson as former
Labour PM said a week is a long time in politics, the 4 weeks to Brexit Day
will pass quickly. There may be some drama prior to the date with a no
confidence vote in the Government but that is expected to fail.
The numbers don’t stack up in favour of the
Jeremy Corbyn plan, or indeed any remainer plan.
If the EU does blink, the key date is 17th
October, at a European Council meeting, last change before the end. I think we
could see them budge but attempt to use that as a time mechanism to give the
impression of talks. This would be the tactic to encourage rebel MPs to mount
another challenge against the UK Government as an attempt to wear the British
people down. Boris Johnson must calculate whether any extension is worth the
trouble, because extension doesn’t necessarily mean progress, there is no point
in going on with a running extension, it only benefits the EU.
Finally, 31st October is Hallowe’en,
a time where some people end up getting a fright, Boris Johnson needs to decide
where he is going out with a ‘trick or treat’ scenario. If he is seen not to
deliver a treat with hard Brexit, then the trick may be how he can stop a
general election. The People Vs Politicians may throw up some unexpected surprises,
and The Brexit Party at least down south may be in a place to be a power broker
with seats, but they need an emotional vote by the British people to get those seats
needed. The next Westminster election could be quite an angry affair.
Yours sincerely
George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow
University
1 comment:
They've turned him down, looks like this is it, George!
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