Dear All
Last night a new record was set in the Breacon
and Radnorshire by-election, Boris Johnson holds the record of losing a seat in
circa a week. This fact is a titbit, but the real story for me is how the
Brexit Party can influence an election. Firstly, in the European Elections in
this area, the Brexit Party polled 35%. Last night they limped in with a measly
10.5% vote share, which begs the questions, where did the Brexit voters go and
why?
The Brexit Party is facing a learning
experience, EU elections aren’t like Westminster elections, and the lack of
policies, long campaigns and short campaigns and general campaigning is a
factor. Their contribution last night was to act as a stopper which cut Boris
Johnson’s Commons majority to one!
Not exactly their plan, but a by-product
nonetheless.
The Conservative incumbent went from 20,081
to 12,401 because Chris Davies was subject to a recall petition. A recall
petition due to his conviction for in March 2019, he pleaded guilty to two
counts of fraud concerning Parliamentary expenses. In what must seem bizarre,
his local Conservative Association picked him again. The National Party let
them, and as they say the rest is history.
A drop of 8,000 votes!
So, this isn’t a good night for the
Conservatives but the good news for them is that the Lib Dems in the shape of
Jane Dodds won having been the subject of a major campaign by her party to
elect her. If you remember my previous stuff on the how the political economy
works, you know the three key factors, money, people and resources. The Lib
Dems put a huge amount of human capital in to win this seat, which in a general
election will not be available.
One other bit of interesting news is the
Conservative plan seems to be to crush the Brexit Party as the imminent threat
to their election chances. The key date for everyone is still 31st
October 2019, if there is a no deal Brexit, then the Conservatives have
breathing space. If there isn’t no deal exit, the noose will be tightened
around Boris Johnson’s neck. No deal Brexit neturalises the Brexit Party,
anything else fans the flames.
The turn out last night was a healthy 59.7%
in the by-election so it was a keenly contested seat, Jane Dodds did what was
expected of her, her speech talking of Lib Dem revival was standard fare.
The Labour Party last night polled 5.3% of
the vote which translates to, 1680, they kept their deposit but the night was
really a disaster for them as well as the Conservatives. In 2017, the party in the general election
managed 7,335 votes, last night they should have done much better, but this
seat isn’t a target seat for them.
Ukip’s contribution was on par with the
Monster Raving Looney Party, however Ukip couldn’t beat them.
Looney beat them 334 to 242.
The Brexit party has sucked the life out of
Ukip and it is now seen as a shell.
In light of this defeat, you will not be
hearing calls for an early general election from the Conservatives, but you
will from Labour, which will be bravado; this result is a kick in the teeth for
them and their plans. This by-election isn’t a classic, a more interesting test
is the upcoming by-election in Sheffield Hallam which is the current former
Labour MP Jared O’Mara is about to resign. This seat is a genuine possibly three
way contest between Labour, Lib Dems and Conservatives unlike Breacon and
Radnorshire.
Finally, two major factors helped the Lib
Dems win, their relentless onslaught in the area swamping it with activists and
the deal which saw Plaid Cymru and the Green Party stand aside for Jane Dodds.
This made circa about just around 3,000 votes available to her which in normal
circumstances wouldn’t have been available. Last night we really didn’t get a
sense how the cards fall for a general election but we did see an anomaly and a
peek at Conservative thinking….. crush the Brexit Party at all costs.
Roll on Sheffield Hallam.
Yours sincerely
George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow
University
3 comments:
Get the feeling that if a general election is called, the Lib Dems just might beat Labour. Unless Labour get rid of Corbyn, they are screwed.
Is there a risk of the Lib Dems taking power and unanimously halting Brexit?
I can see more of this mutual support between parties. Anywhere there is a slim majority could be rich pickings for some. UKIP are most definitely dead. I would seriously love to see the Monster Raving mob win a seat. Be the most sensible politician ever elected.
Post a Comment