The NeverEnding Story of Political Self Harm in Scottish Labour, why isn't Scottish Labour not treating every by-election as a priority, Clackmannanshire East, 195 people vote for Scottish Labour, does the party need better organisers, how does Anas Sarwar constitutional gaffe help Labour progress, and the Battle for Pollok, Scottish Conservatives Party select Dr. Craig Ross, 25 years in education teaching politics, Nicola Sturgeon's straw man, Humza Yousaf wouldn't like this Conservative selection, especially in a TV debate

Dear All

A couple of stories caught my eye over the weekend, one of them was the Ward by-election result in Clackmannanshire East. The population  according to online data which I found is said to be roughly 8,710, as Wards go, this isn't a big ward by any means. What is interesting about the result is there appears to be a straight sizeable swop from the Scottish Labour Party to the Scottish Conservatives. I would hazard a guess and say this is because the Scottish Labour Party is weak when it comes to defence of the United Kingdom. Too many mixed messages coming out which do the party no good at all and leave voters angry. The Conservatives polled 51% of the vote, up by 9.7%, the SNP came second with 32% and Scottish Labour came third on 8.1%, on a turnout of 35%.

In previous articles, I have highlighted that Scottish Labour which had a national vote share of 20% had further to fall if steps where not taken in re-organising how it campaigns. In politics, when parties get either a good or bad result, they will try and put an even more positive spin on it. No one wants to be seen as an abject loser politically. The parties could for example focus on how many votes they got, how much of the percentage share they got, or even if there was a rise in their percentage share. Everything said post result has one objective to make you think they are relevant and worth listening too.

From 20% of the vote, the Scottish Labour Party dropped to 8.1%, only 195 people out of roughly 8,710 eligible to vote thought Scottish Labour was worth their vote. Myself, when it comes to voting, I don't like to deal in spin, or gloss, because putting a brave face on it, isn't a viable long term strategy especially for a party in decline. The brutal truth of the Clackmannanshire East by-election is that the 195 people who voted Scottish Labour is 2.24 % of population of 8710 in the ward. let that number sink in, 2.24%. Given the role that council services play in our lives, that percentage is absolutely staggering, especially for a major UK party such as the Labour Party. I would say that Scottish Labour organisers should be at every by-election to either assist, run it or help out in any capacity the CLP deems fit.

Traditionally council by-elections have low turns, this one was 35%, but the news wasn't all bad, the Scottish Conservative candidate polled 1,226 votes, Denis Coyne 'walked it' as they say. In the bigger elections such as Holyrood and Westminster, voters will turn out in greater numbers, but equal status should be extended to council elections by the public. Sadly, the public view 'the council' as a lesser body despite the wide ranging powers they have in the lives of original people. Although there is much talk about 'grassroots' in Scottish Labour, there isn't enough credit given to the bulk of elected Labour members, the Councillors. Instead the press et all are all wrongly Holyrood fixated. Scottish Labour Councillors are the ones carrying the load for Scottish Labour, not the MSPs and not the sole Labour MP in Edinburgh.

Scottish Labour if you didn't know has a team of paid organisers, and it's about time that Scottish Labour HQ made better use of them, the route out of the party's difficulties is in part one of education. Scottish Labour need better trained activists. Education isn't the only issue plaguing the party, recently Labour MSP Anas Sarwar said as Scottish Labour’s new constitution spokesman that the party will oppose an independence referendum until at least 2026. When I read his statement, my first thought was WTF, this stands for 'What the Fuck', and WTF is right, what does that mean, does it mean after 2026, Scottish Labour may change its mind in relation to a Scottish referendum? Does Scottish Labour not grasp the rank stupidity of supporting indyref 2 and then saying they will campaign against it? How well did that work out for them during the Brexit referendum. I don't think they do grasp it, Scottish Labour is supposed to be a pro UK Party, the only thing which statements like this from Anas actually do is to alienate pro UK Labour voters in Scottish Labour, and make them vote for other parties.

Kezia Dugdale famously made the "mistake" of saying she could see a reason under certain circumstances for voting for Scottish independence. This act of self harm caused so much damage to the party, and her saying it was no small matter as future results at the next council election showed.

Where is Scottish Labour's commitment to the United Kingdom?

There was a vote in 2014, and the Scottish people voted decisively to remain part of the UK.

What we have here is the classic nonsense of trying to 'ride two horses at the same time', Scottish Labour has done this before and well just look where the party is now. People can argue over different opinions, but you cannot argue with a ballot box result. Clackmannanshire East is definitive for Scottish Labour, it's a failure to recognise that every election no matter how small is important to them now, just as a Holyrood by-election would be. Anas Sarwar said it is up to the people of Scotland to decide their future, but added that Labour will not support indyref 2 for the whole of the next Holyrood term.

This prompted a fellow Labour MSP Neil Findlay to ask:

"When did this become policy? Where was the debate? This is just making stuff up on the hoof."

Anas Sarwar's position is incoherent, if his goal is to wreck Scottish Labour's voter base in order to oust Richard Leonard as leader, this is the way to go. Anas was not picked by Richard Leonard when he became leader to be in the Scottish Shadow Cabinet, he was also stripped of his health brief. He recently joined the Shadow Cabinet again and was appointed Shadow Constitution minister. Was Richard Leonard's judgement right to appoint him to this post, well the simple answer is no. If anything, Leonard should have reappointed him back to shadow health sec. The Scottish Labour leader said:

"I am delighted to welcome back my friend Anas Sarwar to the Shadow Cabinet".

Given how bitter the leadership contest was in 2017, how much stock do you put in Richard Leonard saying Anas is his 'friend', especially after he previously fired him and sent him to the back benches?

Leonard added:

"In his new role as Shadow Constitution minister. Anas will be part of a forward looking and united Scottish Labour frontbench at Holyrood, which will hold Nicola Sturgeon's government to account over its failures in handling the Covid pandemic and promote Scottish Labour's transformative programme ahead of next year's election."

Labour's transformative programme?

This must be a secret because nothing I have received from the party during this entire year hints at any transformative programme. I know nothing of, who is running, when it is happening, what the content is, who is going to deliver it locally or online, and when it starts. It seems Scottish Labour leaders fall into a trap of saying they are going to 'fix' Scottish Labour then fail to do so. Jim Murphy famously said he had 'fixed' Scottish Labour then promptly lost to the SNP who won 56 Westminster seats in the 2015 election. I still remember my post 12 weeks out from that election day called, 'fucking it all up', and in the aftermath of just a single Labour MP being elected in Scotland, the title of that post was spot on.   

Everyone knows the right wing of Scottish Labour want Leonard out, they think they can experience a return to the glory days of Blairism. The problem is, Blairism worked because people were ignorant of what Blair was all about, and his lies, the people aren't going to be tricked again. New Labour is dead to the people of Scotland, but the right wing of the party lives in denial, New Labour in Scotland created 'Anti Labour' among people who were traditional core Labour voters. The people want political leaders to stand by them in times of need, Blairism offers elected people as ineffective 'line managers'. The SNP was ideally placed to be the vessel for the Scottish people's protest vote, and over time the protest vote has found no reason to return to the Labour fold. Scottish Labour didn't put its house in order, so people left it to collapse, its historical fact.

The other story which caught my attention was someone being selected as candidate for the Scottish Conservatives, someone smart. Dr Craig Ross has been selected to run as the Scottish Conservative Candidate for Pollok. I have known Craig Ross since my early days at Glasgow University when he studied politics. If Craig gets into a political debate with Humza Yousaf, he will wipe the floor with him easily. Craig was a politics lecturer and we had so many chats on politics, he is quick, knowledgeable and can think on his feet, if elected, I could see him being appointed as Minister of Education if Douglas Ross becomes FM. One of the things which he imparted to me early on when we talked about education was that the core skill to teach young people was how to analyse. He explained by teaching this skill at school, students would become better students with a deeper understanding of the subjects they were learning. By having the skill to analyse a person could break down a subject and therefore learn at a faster rate.

There is of course a big hurdle in front of him, 2016, the Conservative candidate Thomas Haddow was able to get 2563 votes. The SNP won the seat with 15,316 votes, so Craig Ross certainly has a mountain to climb in Pollok. The Scottish Labour vote in 2016 under Johann Lamont was 8,834, a drop of 15.9% from the previous election, this is because she didn't work the area in the long campaign. Another handicap was also the majority of membership of Pollok CLP wouldn't come out and work for her. Her campaign surprised me in that it was very badly run and organised. I had to ask for campaigning meetings to take place so people could have the feeling of being involved, and be part of the process. This is something that her campaign manager should have done but didn't, he ditched the campaign early to chase an employment opportunity. If I hadn't done the Govan part of the Glasgow Pollok Constituency myself on her behalf, no one would have. I personally was surprised that someone who had such a high profile in Scottish Labour couldn't get people to help her out regularly through-out her campaign. I did 31 days of double shift campaigning for her. In Govan alone, I did 15 days by myself and was told no one was available to help out. In fact, if I had another 5 campaigning days, I would have made it down to Govan Cross and nearly would done the entire area.

As far as I am aware, no candidate has been selected to stand in Pollok for Scottish Labour just yet, there has been no hustings held, no information of any kind to members that anyone has put themselves forward. If Johann Lamont stands as the candidate, I will not be doing her campaign, back in 2016, she made me a promise then reneged on it. I put a lot of stock in trust, if a person doesn't hold up their commitment by accident or misfortune, I don't hold bias against them. I demonstrated goodwill to Lamont in campaigning for her, she effectively spat in my face. Well, lesson learned about Johann Lamont and her integrity, to be clear since 2016, Johann Lamont has never apologised for her conduct towards me. On election night 2016, she was shocked to see me in counting hall, five months earlier, I had arranged to have an alternative plan to get a ticket to the count. That said I wanted to give Johann Lamont every benefit of the doubt to prove me wrong, but she acted as I predicted.     

So, what about Dr Craig Ross, I found a link to a video he made, it gives you a sense of the depth he will bring to the Scottish Conservatives. I think when you listen to him, you will readily understand that he has a sense of where Scotland is politically and what is needed to basically drag us back out of the mud. He has a depth which many of our political class lack, and 25 years of teaching politics makes him well suited and well read to speak on a wide range of issues.

https://twitter.com/Craig4P/status/1330177466120491011

In a debate between Dr Craig Ross and Humza Yousaf, you will see how out of his depth Humza really is, Humza isn't someone who can talk about issues of substance. We can only hope that this encounter is on TV, you can then at least enjoy it with the rest of the family. Politically, Humza Yousaf is a man of straw, his use to the SNP is limited, he is tied firmly to Sturgeon's apron strings. He operates in a very limited narrative, ask him questions and you will soon see how shallow he is on policy. I have no idea who Scottish Labour will have as a candidate in Pollok but they will be faced with a three way fight for the seat, and not an easy ride. On one side the SNP dominate with numbers on the ground, on the other side the Scottish Conservatives have a formidable candidate in Dr. Craig Ross who has lived and breathed politics most of his life, and can fight his corner. In the middle will be the Scottish Labour candidate who won't be able to equal the numbers of the SNP or the intellect of  Dr. Craig Ross. On an operational level, the Scottish Labour candidate will have to cope with a CLP which has effectively crashed in terms of activism. I know all this because I spelt out the changes which need to happen to Pollok CLP prior to covid closing everything down. One of the changes which I said need to happen was the outright rejection of any candidate who is also a list candidate.

Finally, it could be a very lively campaign in Glasgow Pollok in 2021.

Yours sincerely

George Laird                                                                                                                        The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University