Re-drawing the Map of Ukraine; Is Russian President Valdimir Putin about to commit Russia to an invasion of the Ukraine, at a time when the West is so politically weak and divided, when the US isn't willing to fight on the ground, when senior Nato allies such as Germany and France don't want to upset the Russians, there appears to be an open invitation for Russia to scoop up a large part of Ukrainian territory, this eerily harks back to the annexing of the Czech republic in 1938

In Geopolitics, countries make ridiculous demands and after a series of talks, things are compromised and peace returns, they say the best type of compromise is the deal that no one is happy with. Bearing this in mind, are Russian forces getting ready for war in Ukraine? The Russians have already blundered into and occupied the Crimea, a key critical area in the region. In the minds of the Russians, they basically see all of Ukraine as part of Greater Russia. We have seen from photos that the Russians are bring up troops and massing on the Ukrainian border, they didn't just turn up, they were ordered to be there. They could be there for many reason, such as training, or they could be there as pawns for the political game, or finally they could be massing for invasion. In real terms, if invasion is likely, the West led by the US will not back Ukraine via the acid test, boots on the ground. Although the West will supply military aid, and attempt to pressure the Russians, I think everyone knows that GI Joe Biden has a limit of 'helping' an supposed ally. Also when you look at where the economic power lies, you can see that Russian and China are the major economic players in the Ukraine. 

The Russian grievance is well known, Russia wants the West to promise that Ukraine will not join its Nato defensive alliance. In fact if you look at the picture above, you can see what the real issue between Russia and the West is, the Russians want a large buffer zone, friendly to them yes, but also neutral. The West wants to build a missile ring around Russian much in the same way that they wish to do against China. Russia ideally wants a return to a position of 1997 where many former satellites weren't in Nato, and not part of the EU. Having Ukraine join the Nato alliance is like having armed people standing on your lawn and threatening you. The issue is security in the eyes of the Russians, they feel insecure and who can blame them, the West as we have seen in smaller countries in the Middle East has a first strike policy, usually there is a period of propaganda prior to any military action for the public to be onboard and sign off in theory to any military action. But what about Ukraine, will the people of the West sign off on a military adventure in the East? I very much doubt that there is an appetite to get behind GI Joe Biden, even the French and Germans aren't backing him as they have declared they want their own voice at any talks. One thing looks clear, just as the West stood idly back and sold out the Czechs, it would seem that history maybe about to repeat itself. The West isn't going to attempt or support Ukraine in retaking Crimea beyond a certain point. 

What the Russians want, they can't have, as I mentioned above, no reset of the 1997 Nato boundaries, and although the two sides are "negotiating", that is not going to happen. Those post 1997 who hitched their star to Nato such as Poland, Hungary and Romania are not willing to return to the old Russian Empire. The further West you go, the less appetite the others are as well, both societal and politically. Further north, places like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were also not friends of the Russians. Russian post second world war did incredible harm in these places under the soviet system. The Cold War may have ended in 1989, with the fall of the Berlin war, but even today, the Russian presence in some countries isn't welcome. And let's face, the soviet regime was brutal. Although the Germans and their then allies, killed many Russians during WW2, it is something which didn't 'top' the murders and harm which flourished under people like Stalin. Stalin was a brutal dictator, he is the classic thug who rose to be a leader in the Soviet Union, WW2 gave him the power of life and death. The purges of the red army in the late 1930's were done so Stalin could secure his position, he literally beheaded the army of it best and most senior commanders. That period of Russia was part of its darkest hours. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Purge 

If the Russians do invade Ukraine, they face a few problems, clearly they roll into recognised Nato countries, such a thing would be too much for even Putin, but redrawing the boundaries of the Ukraine wouldn't be. Putin is smart enough to know there is a limit on how far he can roll westwards without triggering nuclear war, and the Russians don't want that scenario. They want Crimea, lock, stock and barrel, an presumably anything else which is up for grabs. In looking at this, the West should remember that their concern of jeopardising Europe's entire security structure, started with their policy decisions. Top me, I think the endgame for Russia if there is an invasion is that they incorporate the Crimea into Russia, the area is known for having many Russians who live there, and one of the main languages is indeed Russian. There are many deep social and cultural ties with Russia which cannot be ignored. There is a great video on youtube to watch which explains better the issue and the players, it also touches on the problem of American foreign policy, the Americans are bad at it. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 

This video is worth watching all the way to the end. The title is blunt and direct, 'why is Ukraine the West's Fault, featuring John Mearsheimer. I have watched this and at over 74 minutes, it is a frank and steady piece of work laying out the problems. John Mearsheimer has rightly been described as the most influential realist of his generation. In other words, he looks at the problem, he cuts to the heart of the issue and blows away the smoke and mirrors created by politicians. I am sure that many of his ideas would ring true to you. So, to get a sense of the man himself, best to visit wiki for a snapshot of his bio. If a war between Russia and Ukraine does kick off, you may find him appearing on TV constantly for in-depth analysis. Nato's secretary general warns there is real risk of conflict, and President Biden says his "guess" is that Russia will move in. The US says it knows of Russian plans to boost its forces near Ukraine "on very short notice". One interesting thing which is of note is that Russian troops and tanks have headed to Belarus for exercises. If you factor in that the Russians hold Crimea, you could imagine that if the Russians invade, they could do so from Crimea, Belarus and Russia, that way they could effectively cut the country in half. If you get a map you could see this more clearly. 

Finally, the Russian's armed forces chief Valery Gerasimov has denounced reports of an impending invasion as a lie. This might be true or it could be a stalling tactic while the Russians wait till spring. One of the drawbacks which hampered the Germans in WW2 invading Russia was that they wait till high summer before invading due to supply problems. I guess many will be wondering if the Russians have increased military arms provision, fuel, food and medical supplies for its forces over the recent months. Although economic warfare is a thing these days, a Russia/ Ukraine scrap will be rather traditional, old school warfare. It will be tanks, planes and infantry divisions conquering land. Another fly in the ointment is that if the Russians do go into Ukraine, it could also see the Chinese move on Taiwan. The West doesn't have the resources to fight two conflicts with reluctant 'allies' such as German and France who depend on Russian gas. Already we have seen the Germans veto UK military support flying across their airspace so as not to upset the Russians. As John Mearsheimer points out starkly, the West doesn't consider the Ukraine as being part of their strategic interests. Some allies are less important than others it seems, which to me seems to go against the ethos of why Nato was created in the first place.