Dear All
Polling isn't about judging public opinion, polling is about influencing it, have you ever wondered by the SNP and their allies keep routinely holding and getting polls done for them. The reason is to create in the minds of the public, that the SNP has the support of the majority of the people of Scotland. They don't, but what is more accurate is that in past elections, they have the majority of the people who came out to vote. The SNP as I have blogged on has a better operation for getting people to be activists for them and secondly, getting people out to vote for them. In contrast, Scottish Labour and Scottish Conservatives cannot match their man power at election time, and nor can they match the SNP activities during the long campaign.
Basically, and covid highlights this rather well, the SNP because they control the government are effectively the only ones doing the talking to the people of Scotland. No one else gets quite the same coverage on the digital media or in the press. One trick which the SNP use to dominate the news agenda is putting out bogus stories, they do this by making an MP or MSP make a fool of themselves, then Nicola Sturgeon steps in to give her reply. In some respects this reminds me of volleyball where you have the setup laid up for the goal scorer. The press help comply with this media manipulation because it is in their interests and suits their bias. This link is a source for my contention about manipulation, please read it.
"An attempt can be made to use polls to influence rather than to reflect public opinion. Polls can be manipulated to give a false picture of public opinion. Moreover, there is evidence that since polls are believed to be reliable and useful, the public could be misled by unreliable surveys".
By using and the constant reporting of polls, the SNP are trying to create a 'bandwagon' effect, they have been doing this for quite some time, and they know what they are doing it for. They are trying to rig an election in their favour, this is an ongoing attempt to suppress the votes for other political parties. We will see more manipulation because the election campaign for Holyrood 2021 has already begun, it started a long time ago, when Angus Robertson's crappy little organisation got started. It is highly likely that the SNP will win the election in 2021 because they have effectively cornered the media's output. And as political campaigning on the ground is effective nil at present, pro UK parties are losing the 'digital war'. In order to manipulate the outcome of a poll, sometimes conflating other issues directs people to give an answer which if a different set of questions were used would change the results. If you poll on the Holyrood election and then talk about a divisive issue you will get skewered results, and when you add in the climate we live in under the SNP, people don't want to be open. I don't see any value in any polling leading up to Holyrood 2021, it's a distorted picture.
The support for independence at 56% is based on a political landscape where the SNP are the only ones who are talking, all others receive limited coverage, and as we know, the SNP manipulated the truth. In a recent car crash interview, Nicola Sturgeon was effectively branded a liar, because the information being told to Scots isn't the truth. The best line which holds water with many Scots must be:
“There’s a gap between how you present yourself, which you do very well, and what is actually going on in Scotland.”
Not only are we being lied too, but more than that, the truth is being suppressed, everything is being done to create a false image that Scotland is always doing better than England, that the SNP are doing better than the Conservatives, and that Nicola Sturgeon is a better leader than Boris Johnson. Boris Johnson runs a country, Nicola Sturgeon runs devolved services, she doesn't run a country. The Ipsos MORI/STV poll found more than twice as many people say they will vote for the SNP as for the Scottish Conservatives, this is easily explained, in a area the Conservatives tend to campaign in places where they would assume their vote is. In my area of Craigton, this meant houses, back and front doors, so a lot of potential voters that they should be speaking too, don't get a face to face, or an extra leaflet through the door. SNP campaigning is based on a scatter gun approach of the whole area, combined with targeted appeals where they know people vote SNP. If the polling was to hold up on election, 55% of voters would back the SNP in the constituency vote in May, with 22% backing the Conservatives and 14% planning to vote Labour. The polling also stated that 46% plan to back the SNP in the regional vote, with 22% backing the Tories and 16% Labour. This I would suggest would represent a continuation of what I call 'Stockholm Syndrome' in Scotland which I alluded to in a previous blog.
The polling is being manipulated because the results show the SNP is more trusted by the public than either the Scottish Conservatives or Scottish Labour. Given the failures in health, education, law and the Alex Salmond Affair, and the fact we know that the SNP are devious liars, the canny Scot still isn't canny it seems. For your entertainment make sure you listen to the full Andrew Marr interview of Nicola Sturgeon and really tune into what he is saying:
“There’s a gap between how you present yourself, which you do very well, and what is actually going on in Scotland.”
There is a reason for the skewered results, it's the failure of political parties to moblise, yesterday's post, I highlighted how Scottish Labour is broken. Today, I read a story which to me basically shows the mindset of the thinking in the party. I have blogged on this before, the recycling of failed candidates who have been rejected by the voters.
So, what are Katy Clark's chances, well as you know, I have talked about 'viable seats' is Cunningham North such a seat for Scottish Labour? The answer is no, it's no because of the previous voting trends, and it's no because Katy Clark is a parachuted candidate. She hasn't got a name which the people will rally round. If you take into account other problems as I have previously mentioned, Ms. Clark is however a strong contender for third place and that's because the Lib Dems are so awfully bad, they can't crack a 1,000 votes now. Given that campaigning has effectively ceased, Katy Clark will have to do a cold start in campaigning terms, alongside an SNP machine which is still running. Of course the cold start in campaigning terms doesn't just apply to Clark's campaign, its right across the board for the party.
SNP depute leader Keith Brown or as I prefer to call him, 'the man who can't walk and chew gum' said:
"People in Scotland have the right to decide their own future rather than being under the control of Westminster governments, led by the likes of Boris Johnson, that they don’t vote for. The Covid-19 pandemic has been the greatest public health crisis of our lifetime - but we can see a light at the end of the tunnel, and this SNP Government will continue working hard to rebuild and recover from the crisis. As we rebuild from this pandemic, it should be Scottish Governments, elected by the people of Scotland and with the priorities and interests of Scotland at heart who lead our recovery - not Westminster governments, led by the likes of Boris Johnson. The SNP is taking absolutely nothing for granted and we will be working hard for every single vote ahead of next year's election as we protect our NHS and jobs in the face of the Tories’ disastrous hard Brexit. But it is clearer than ever that Scotland’s future lies as an independent country. The pressure on Boris Johnson to respect the democratic rights of voters in Scotland is now immense - no politician can stand in the way of democracy."
When I read this drivel, my first thought is Brown appears to have a screw loose, anti Boris, anti Tory rhetoric, delusions that the SNP is saving Scotland, nonsense that the SNP have Scotland's best interests at heart, nonsense about Brexit and more drivel about democratic rights when the SNP refuse to respect the democratic vote of the people. The SNP will not be rebuilding the Scottish economy post covid. The SNP don't create jobs, of course someone will say 'jobs for the boys', granted they do that, but building an economy, creating jobs, that is out with their competence. How many businesses have they tried to save that then went bust? How many taskforces did they setup who failed? The SNP are only masters of gesture politics, they are masters of manipulation of the truth, they are con men and women. They have taken away the future for working class kids, failed to create jobs, failed to create a better society, destroyed our country and wrecked havoc with because they control the levers of government in Scotland.
Finally, I would suggest you watch the youtube video of the exchange between Andrew Marr and Nicola Sturgeon, for Sturgeon the shine has gone, in her party, the wolves at the door are now finally inside. Salmond's allies got in at the SNP NEC election, and in getting in, key Sturgeon allies like Woke General Alyn Smith and the odious Rhiannon Spear were kicked off the NEC. In the aftermath of his NEC defeat, SNP MP Alyn Smith opted to be the lesser man. You would think that covid would have impressed upon him the importance of not letting the mask slip. Sadly for him, time waits for no man, and in the spirit of schadenfreude (well it's near xmas), he blew up again, I found it especially funny that he calls himself a team player, as do some others.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-team-player/
I would urge you to read this post and the comments because, there is a certain humour in Alyn Smith's outrage, the post defeat analysis, and comments of the 'bastard got what is coming to him'. The Cherry on the cake, is that SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has as yet not been able to bring herself to congratulate the newly-elected SNP NEC, apparently her enemy Salmond ally, Joanna Cherry climbing the party ladder may have upset her. Salmond's coming home, just make sure you're gone Nicola before he arrives!
Yours sincerely
George Laird The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University
3 comments:
The quicker the SNP are booted out of power the better. With the recent NEC election in the party, there appears to be a determined effort to remove Sturgeon.
If you check Twitter and other social media platforms, along with articles written by prominent SNP politicians, I think there may be an attempt to bring Salmond back into the party. However that is probably a risky proposition, and there is no guarantee that he would want to do this.
The more vocal pro-indy people are screaming for the SNP to stand on a single policy of a referendum next May. I hope they do, as it would give their opponents more ammunition than they could dream of.
For all this talk about an referendum, there has not been a single article on what Scotland does if a Yes vote is the result. Nothing. There is no guarantee about EU membership, and that is what they know the need to get the financial support. But that is ironic, given that the EU will impose strict rules on fiscal policy - look to Hungary and Greece.
While we have issues at Westminster, they are nothing to what we will get if the SNP ever get their way. The world economy is fucked, so why on earth do they think we will suddenly become rich?
Un-friggin-believable. The SNP thriving of the uselessness of the other parties and holding the country hostage with their anti-english hatred and divisiveness while whining about when the Conservatives (allegedly) do it. All because that pinhead Blair decided to kiss up to them and offer devolution for nothing. Fuck's sake.
Hi George. Great article. It generally amazes me how ill informed the average voter is when it comes to the political situation in Scotland. I speak to many people every week and I cannot understand why they blindly vote snp. Its about time the unionist parties wake up and take the fight to the snp. I always enjoy reading your blog. Harvey
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