Is Brexit from EU gaining traction, Professor John Curtice says the British public is "seriously divided" over Europe, a leaked report suggested the number of economic migrants could be as high as 1.5 million, the EU is heading towards being unstable, dangerous and violent because a backlash is coming as far right anti migrant parties will rise and seize power

Dear All

I have always been a supporter of the European Union as far back as it was then known as the European Community.

It took the United Kingdom 10 years of effort to get into the European Union as we know it; our membership wasn’t easy because of Charles de Gaulle, the former French President. He didn’t want us to be part of the European project which in the main was run by a Franco/ German alliance.

As the EU grew, the reforms that needed to be done were patchy at best and mostly lacked political will. Everything was strung together around the founding principles which didn’t reflect the makeup of a developing entity which was to emerge.

David Cameron like many others wants a reformed EU; at present we are seeing the Conservative Government appearing to want reforms or more to the point opt-outs because they don’t like certain parts of what the United Kingdom are signed up to.

Their stance is this is protecting sovereignty.

The EU referendum is important, the United Kingdom although in Europe has struggled to be a part of Europe, mostly we go along but we are able to form our own opinions rather than just rubber stamp what comes down the pipe.

If you have watch and read about the migrant crisis of late, you will have seen a distinct change in European opinion, on the one hand you had Angela Merkel open the floodgates to economic migrants, only for Germany to realise the damage they have done and impose border controls.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel made a serious mistake.

German people like most Europeans are tolerant people; this tolerance has been tested; Merkel is now seeing the rise of the far right in Germany which is drawing in moderate Germans to their views.

As I blogged on, protests will turn to violent protests, then we will see attacks on economic migrants, and also attacks on politicians.

When I blogged that there would be attacks on politicians, some people might have thought that strange of me, but it was easy to see it coming, the Mayoral Candidate in Cologne was stabbed in Germany by a 58 years old man.

His reason was said to be because of economic migrants.

Although we won’t see a war in the convention sense, we will see a situation where internal terrorism may develop; this is the result of Merkel’s actions. The guy who stabbed the Mayoral Candidate in Cologne will be seen as a loner, but we can expect more politicians to be attacked.

To the young and those educated to degree level, Europe seems like a big adventure so they are likely in a referendum to back staying in the EU.

But those less well educated and with no prospects or hope, they are seeing what little they have being steady taken away from them as more and more migrants come into their country. Politicians tend to dispute because they are conveniently not there when the poorest in society see economic migrants gets things that they are denied by the State.

Even at Christian charities, the poor and homeless have a sense of resentment growing inside of them which politicians simply cannot dismiss as these people relate their actual experiences.

I have blogged on the possibility of civil war in Europe, a clash of cultures which don’t blend, when you see the riots in places like Spain and Italy, you have to ask how long can it be before violence on a wide scale happens?

Professor Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow at NatCen Social Research is looking at attitudes to Europe.

He said that research suggests more than two in three voters aged under 35 would prefer to remain in the EU, this is understandable, Europe has a lot to offer of the economically and socially mobile.

In the over 55’s only 45% which to stay in Europe, Conservative voters are split down the middle on how to vote, the Conservatives want to see the United Kingdom trade more with the rest of the world.

Professor Curtice said overall, the British public is "seriously divided" over Europe.

What could push a No vote higher is the migrant crisis and the economic impact on the less well off in society who are suffering under cuts, the more people they less chance they have of a job, getting a house, getting hospital treatment as queues get longer.

He added:

"The referendum is not only going to be a debate about the UK’s future relationship with the EU, but also seems set to expose a significant social division between those who feel they are likely to be winners in an international jobs market and those who do not. The outcome will thus tell us a lot about what kind of country we would prefer to be."

It is hard to continue to be a supporter of the European Union when real reform isn’t on the agenda, when sovereignty is diluted, when politicians simply don’t protect their own people and have stopped listening.

When the attack happened on Mayoral candidate Henriette Reker in Cologne, it was appalling, Germany has said it expects 800,000 asylum seekers this year, but a leaked report suggested the number could be as high as 1.5 million.

Once these people are given papers, there is nothing to stop them coming to the United Kingdom, and they won’t be moving into affluent areas, they will be moving into deprived working class communities up and down the country.

This maybe the tipping point for many people to say that European Union membership comes at too high a price.

I am pro-European Union but it is becoming harder to justify that stance, especially to those who will suffer most, the people who have been robbed of their future, and face being robbed by the politicians who aren’t affected economically or socially by the policies they enact.

There is a case for staying in and there is a case for leaving, and in two years, the case for leaving may unity all sections of society to bring in a majority vote for leaving.

That will be a sad end to the United Kingdom’s membership but it may be the only viable option.

Yours sincerely

George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University