Dear All
Labour has won three by-elections, retaining Commons seats
in Croydon North, Middlesbrough and Rotherham .
You could say that the story is not the win by the increased
share of the vote in all three seats.
The majority was down in Rotherham ;
however the previous MP had quit over expenses claims.
For me the other interesting story was the rise of UK
Independence Party coming second in Middlesbrough and Rotherham ,
and finished third in Croydon North.
Although UKIP has been around, the real big breakthrough has
quite happened yet, by their star is on the rise.
And that is a worry for the Conservatives in England .
The real bad news of epic proportions is the Lib Dems, in Rotherham ; they fell from third place to eighth, behind
the BNP, Respect and the English Democrats. The party got less than 5% of the vote,
losing its deposit, in two out of the three contests.
It seems that not only hasn’t the public forgiven Clegg, it
is still of a mind to punish the entire party. Clegg is getting in the neck for
being the Conservative Party’s human sandbag.
The Conservatives saw their vote drop in each of the seats,
coming fifth in Rotherham and fourth in Middlesbrough, this they will put down
to the protest vote and try to shrug off. But it would be foolhardy to simply
dismiss this; their austerity programme isn’t winning friends.
The lib Dems are looking at a massive collapse in next
election, coalition possible?
They might not be able if Labour hoover up their seats in England .
UKIP leader Nigel Farage, who attended the count in
Rotherham, called the result across all three seats "UKIP's most
impressive result in Westminster
elections so far".
And he has reason to be upbeat, UKIP has been going well,
some people have jumped ship from the Conservative Party and there is a vocal
euro sceptic group in the background of Cameron’s own party, decidedly unhappy
and biding their time.
Nigel Farage said:
"The political establishment is just going to have to
wake up to the fact that UKIP is here and here to stay as a significant and
rising mainstream part of British politics."
Labour leader Ed Miliband welcomed the results as an
endorsement of "One Nation Labour", the slogan he is expected to
fight the general election under.
However, it isn’t all plain sailing just yet as he
acknowledged that his party still had work to do to win back the trust of
voters.
Miliband said:
"Voters in Croydon, Rotherham and Middlesbrough
have put their faith in a One Nation Labour Party standing up for young people
trying to find work and standing up for people whose living standards are being
squeezed."
Or it could be that the voters in large numbers thought that
there was no viable alternative.
Business Secretary Vince Cable tried to put a brave face on
by saying the government was unpopular, but was dealing with a difficult
economic situation. It is actually more than that; the Lib Dems are minor
members and taking a disproportionate hit than the Conservatives. It is
patently more than a difficult economic situation.
To give it a name, people who voted Lib Dem feel betrayed.
All the Labour Party won all three seats, the real story is
UKIP, they can feel a sense of achievement, but it should be remembered that in
some respect it is on the back of others unpopularity. They need to transfer
the protest vote into a core vote, then we can see a clearer picture but hats
off, they are travelling along in the right direction but the real game changer
hasn’t happened yet.
Where that will come from and when is anyone’s guess but the
austerity programme and events in Europe regarding riots may make people think
about whether the traditional vote to a mainstream party serves them anymore.
Yours sincerely
George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University