The Race to Finish or The Race to have the Last Laugh, Holyrood election polling shows SNP on course for a majority, Scottish Labour on course for a mega disaster, and a mystery, why is there 10% missing off the SNP regional vote, could be that the public don't want to tell polling companies even in private that they may be voting for Alex Salmond's Alba Party, is the dullest election in Holyrood history about to surprise voters and pundits?

Dear All

It's been a rather dull Holyrood election, the manifestos have been poor, there hasn't been any big ideas to change Scotland. In many ways it is like a cheap TV game show, there has been a vast amount of 'prizes' being offered in the shape of election bribes to make you tune and vote. If you have followed the polling through-out this election, the impact of pro UK party leaders has been as minimal as their manifestos. Elections are about winners and losers, the biggest losers, but not on the ballot paper are the people of Scotland. Despite things being so bad, so bad that any sane person would throw the SNP out, the pro UK parties cannot progress forward. According to a recent seat projection, in what Scottish Labour describes as Anas Sarwar's Labour, the party is expected to have 18 seats. Whether they have 18 or 25 seats or 35 seats, it doesn't matter, Scottish Labour will not be forming the next Scottish Government, and increasing is looking likely to retain their 3rd party of Holyrood status. If I was in London Labour, I would imagine that there would be conversations about whether leaving Scottish Labour to their own devices as a campaigning unit is viable. In order to win Westminster 2024, the UK Labour Party need to win seats in Scotland, and to be honest, without fundamental change to personnel, and staff, this isn't going to happen.

According to the latest polling, we could see a situation where the make-up of the parliament is Scottish Labour with 18 seats. Scottish Greens with 10, SNP with 66, Alba hitting possibly a fat zero, Lib Dems with 7, and Scottish Conservatives retaining their second spot at Holyrood on 28 seats. I suppose what is odd about this polling is that the Scottish Greens and Lib Dems haven't done anything to warrant an increase in seats. Arguably, the Scottish Greens should be if anything going downwards. Did Willie Rennie in a karate suit really pick up votes for the Lib Dems, or championing trans rights over women's rights really do it for Patrick Harvie? This is an awful election, you see instead of real policies for change, the public have been bombarded with messages appealing to their own greed. In the polling, it also revealed that those polled preferred Anas Sarwar as opposition leader rather than Douglas Ross of the Scottish Conservatives, this is due to the dire nature of Douglas Ross, firstly as a communicator, a leader, and someone who will only "commit" to Holyrood fully if he becomes First Minister. What also tanked him will of course be his shameless commitment to stay on at Westminster as well as football gig. In the Sunday Times poll which has came out at the same time as Panel base, the Scottish Conservatives are holding steady at 22% in the regional vote. Anas Sarwar's Labour is going downwards according to the Sunday Times poll at 16%. You may remember what a 'big deal Anas Sarwar made of taking over the party at 14% overall. In this election, which he threw the towel in early on the BBC, a mistake, he compounded it by the launch of his peach bus regional vote strategy. Anas has two buses, and Nicola Sturgeon has two buses, Sturgeon's buses say 'both votes SNP', which Anas sent a defeatist mixed message. For example, you can't say back a Labour national recovery plan and a better opposition, because anyone who knows anything of politics knows that unless you are the government, you can't put Labour's national recovery plan into effect.  

Did anyone proof read this and understand what was being said, or did they shut their mouth and let this sail through without comment?  

One thing which interests me is the SNP polling constituency vs regional, there is a wide gap. The gap is about 10 points, so why is it so long, I struggle with the idea that SNP voters are going to give their second vote to the Scottish Greens. Surely a more reasonable explanation is that the people who vote SNP in the constituency maybe keeping quiet about supporting Alba. The Alba Party is on 4%, however the long running smear campaign against Alex Salmond may make people reluctant to declare that they will back Alba, even to polling companies. The press has been pretty partisan against Alba, they like the SNP don't want to see a second independence party emerge in Scotland. The Scottish Greens aren't an independence, in fact, it has been allegedly reported that Patrick Harvie doesn't even support independence. I see Harvie, like Tommy Sheridan using indy as a vehicle for their own personal progression. I suppose in some ways, being indy minded is like a shield to protect them from some of the less desirable elements of the indy supporters bandwagon.  

One thing about polling is that it is not exact however it can point to a trend, but even within a trend there is a margin of error in polling. The true test is of course this Thursday when you cast your votes. By that time, you will have considered all your options, and cast your ballot, there is of course a case for tactical voting. The problem of tactical voting is that pro UK parties operate in the bubble of 'it's ma ball', they don't play well with others even if it is to the advantage of the country. The political landscape is pro UK vs SNP, Scottish Labour regardless of leader will not engage with tactical voting unless it is backing votes for themselves. Scottish Conservatives who made a fig leaf gesture did so, too late, I suspect that their leadership's heart wasn't in it. But tactical voting in a Holyrood election only makes sense but the problem is, how do you get 'little people' to recognise the value of it? Tactical voting is a measure which should be considered to beat the SNP. If the SNP were removed from Holyrood, it would help Scottish politics right itself, so that focus could be on rebuilding the services the SNP destroyed by neglect and political vandalism. Oh, before I forget, someone mentioned a billion pounds in UK funding is missing, now there is a case to take up.

In this election, I have effectively stood back because of two incidents, one was the smear job when I campaigned for a Labour candidate for the list. The second was the personal abuse that came my way trying to help turn round Pollok CLP when I led a team in Govan. Although I was willing to let the abuse slide, the act getting stood up in the street post abuse was really the final straw for me in the Labour 2021 campaign. As the campaign draws to a close, a former Labour government minister has lent his support to Alex Salmond's Alba Party. Les Huckfield, a former Labour MP and junior industry minister, announced his support today, if you haven't heard of this guy, don't worry, me neither. This guy stays in Perthshire, and judging by his bio, him backing Salmond could be based on friendship when both did a stint at the House of Commons. This guy  Huckfield left the Labour party in protest over the Iraq war, having served in Prime Minister James Callaghan's government. Apparently, he wasn't a fan of Tony Blair or the New Labour project. He says that Scottish independence was the only way Scots could ensure they can guide the Covid recovery, instead of being "handcuffed" to Westminster. That begs the question, why given the complete mess that Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP have made of government does he think the SNP can do a better job? The SNP is a government which is noted by disaster after disaster, and not just in concepts but also in financial matters. The SNP is like a huge blackhole sucking down public money with no return.

In 2014, Huckfield announced he was supporting independence, urging the electorate to vote 'Yes' in the referendum. I never knew which means his story must have been so irrelevant that it got lost in the tsunami of dross pumped out by the SNP. One thing that Huckfield gets wrong is his opinion that electing a “supermajority” for independence in the Scottish Parliament would put “immense pressure” on the Boris Johnson’s UK Government. The SNP will win the election, they might even get their majority, but we should remember that the result really isn't the will of the Scottish people but more a rejection of the weak leadership of opposition politicians and their woke agendas. It is a recognition by the public that they aren't willing to forgive the pro UK parties no matter how bad the SNP are. Scottish politics is an idiot's playground with identity politics and woke agendas, where parties fight for the right of men to wear a dress and enter a women's personal spaces. Ironically Huckfield says when he came to Scotland in 2004,it "became apparent that this is a country with a veritable passion for social justice". Where is the social just in a man pulling out his knob in a women's changing room just because he says he self ids as a woman? It might take a while, but eventually there will be a woman's backlash to the trans problem. What you have to do is wait, for the seed to germinate and then to grow, at some point there will be a tipping point. This is why there is a market for new parties to emerge in Scotland, of course any new party putting women's rights first will be immediately attacked by the press and the established parties.

Huckfield said: 

"The past few years, particularly the manner in which the UK Government ignored the Scottish Government during Brexit, have reinforced my belief that Scotland must be independent to ensure that we can build a socially just nation that recovers from the Coronavirus to create a fairer country. Successive UK Governments have ignored successive mandates of the Scottish Government to hold a second independence referendum. It will be much harder for a Tory UK Prime Minister to ignore a parliament made up of a Supermajority that supports independence. On Thursday I will be giving my list vote to Alba to bring much needed urgency to the progression of Scotland’s independence."

Alex Salmond said:

"Alba is rising and our message is hitting home to independence supporters across Scotland. On Thursday we have the opportunity to elect a Supermajority majority for independence. If we do so then Alba MSPs will bring forward a motion to Parliament instructing the Scottish Government to commence immediate independence negotiations with the UK Government. That way we can ensure that Scotland’s recovery is in Scotland’s hands."

Well, sitting at 4% isn't enough for Alex Salmond's party, he needs to eat into that SNP regional vote, he needs 6% to get an MSP from every region. Maybe that missing 10% of the SNP regional vote maybe the key to his success. If he ended up back in Holyrood, that would be a story, because you can paint his picture easily. Sturgeon bottles indy, Salmond then goes full tilt for the council elections in 2022, and then fields FPTP candidates for Westminster 2024. Is Alex Salmond going to be the big story of Holyrood 2021, one thing for sure, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar sitting on 16% on the regional vote wouldn't, unless the left starts briefing against him. Myself, I suppose I will vote on Thursday because I believe in upholding democracy, and think that everyone should vote. I believe that voting should be compulsory, voting should require ID, and that postal voting should be only allowed for medical reasons or if a voter is out of the country. One thing which I think would be a genuine tragedy would be if Jackie Baillie lost her seat in Dumbarton. As to my bit in the 2021 election, I helped get Paul Sweeney into 3rd place on the Labour list for Glasgow, it looks like he is going to Holyrood, so I got my candidate 'in', and as such, I am stepping back confident that I genuinely secured a win.

Yours sincerely 

George Laird                                                                                                                                The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University