The Startling Lack of Ambition of Anas Sarwar, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar claims that only Labour has momentum in the 2021 Holyrood election but the reality is that the privately educated middle class millionaire refuses to define progress, refuses to answer if he will be the official opposition, refuses to answer if he will win more seats, more votes, bigger voter share, the only progress so far by Anas Sarwar in this election is admitting Scottish Labour is in decline, the second battle bus for list votes was the wrong strategy, how does publicly admitting you cannot win Scottish constituencies help the Labour Party in 2024 Westminster election?

Dear All

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar did a BBC interview in which he said he couldn't turn around 20 years of Scottish Labour decline in 6 weeks. As statements go, this is accurate, however he and others may think that the problem is the Scottish voters not voting for them. In the 20 years of decline, the Scottish Labour took for granted the votes of the people, this translated into several things, bad policies, failing to oppose bad policies inflicted on Scotland by a UK Labour Government, and allowing careerist minded people to be candidates, then we got stuck with Cllrs, MSPs, and MPs who didn't serve their constituents. You might say where is the proof of this? Well, I would direct you to the London Labour cull of 2012, were 20 Labour Councillors in Glasgow were barred from standing, I would direct you to the generational falling votes in both Westminster and Holyrood elections because of lack of representation, when it came to dealing with people's complaints or standing up for local issues. When I did the 2016 Holyrood election campaign in Govan which forms part of the Pollok Constituency for Holyrood, people were angry. They were angry that former Labour MSP Johann Lamont wouldn't back them against a Labour Council plan to impose metering around their area caused by the traffic around the Queen Elizabeth University Hospital. Lamont went onto lose in 2016 but it had taken 17 years for the straw to break the camel's back when it came to good will being extended. Myself, I did Govan alone, this was because hardly anyone was willing to work for her, partly due to the dysfunctional nature of the Pollok CLP and her failing to show any sort of leadership as the Pollok MSP.

Earlier this year, I did two months of unpaid work for the Scottish Labour Party as a campaigner for a candidate to get selected high onto the Labour Party's Glasgow list, and as procedures secretary for Pollok CLP. I had wanted to step back from campaigning because I wanted to do personal things, but circumstances played against me. In fact, I expressed an interest in missing out the Holyrood campaign because I wanted all the things which I kept shelving due to politics to start in a meaningful way. As someone not in a Labour Party faction, neither in what some people recognise as Blairite or Corbynite wings of the party, I wasn't fussed about Holyrood 2021. That said, I was contacted to do the campaign, and against my better judgment, and to show good will, yet again to the party, I decided to do the campaign. So, I said to the Labour election agent, I would do Govan, then work in Craigton, effectively finish Ward 5 and 6 which sat in the Pollok Constituency, then move into Ward 4. I had a plan of how I would tackle it. On day two of Holyrood campaigning, a person in the team I was leading decided to have running arguments with me in front of the rest of the team. Apparently he didn't like the fact that I was giving orders to a Labour Councillor concerning the route I wanted him to take. The reason given to me was that the Councillor "knows the area", well, the question wasn't whether the Cllr knows the area but whether he can do an assigned route so that it works in with the rest of the work that the team was doing.

The final part of this little story after that day, was I took the Easter Holiday off, two days, I generally don't like to work Sundays, and I don't like to work on religious Holidays. So, when I returned to campaigning on the Tuesday to the pick-up spot at 9 am. I found no one there to pick me up for campaigning. Having waited 15 minutes in the cold, and checking my phone, no one had texted or called. Later on I got the chance to check my email, no one had emailed me out of courtesy to explain what was going on. Given that, I came to the conclusion that I wasn't welcome on the Pollok Labour campaign, so I did what anyone else would do, I found something better to do with my time. Since, they haven't been in contact, I can only assume those running the campaign found out and are too embarrassed to ask me back or they have no problem with what happened. Either way, I am not sufficiently interested to care, I have put that campaign behind, but any requests for help will be viewed in an entirely different fashion in future.

If you have looked at polling over time, you will see that Anas Sarwar as leader of Scottish Labour has made no real difference, however, he claims, his party is the only one with momentum going into the final week of the election. If you look at polling, you will see that his claim is so spurious, it could literally be said by any of the parties, including the SNP who have never lost their lead in this entire campaign. Just in case you forget, when there is a 'short campaign', parties polling does generate interest. In the case of Scottish Labour, it isn't because of Anas Sarwar is leader, it is because there is an election going on. Sarwar having made his success claim is refused to say how he would measure success, so this begs the question, why? He is waiting for the results to come in, then he and his advisors will pick something out and use that as evidence. The only real story of this election that has any interest is what will happen with Alba led by Alex Salmond. If Alex Salmond gets back into Holyrood with a small grouping, he will effectively be the opposition to Sturgeon. Salmond back in the Chamber of Holyrood will be a thorn in Nicola Sturgeon's side, a reminder that the SNP tried to stitch up an innocent man and failed.

In this election for the Scottish Labour, the focus after Anas Sarwar flung in the towel via the BBC, is the list vote. The Scottish Labour leader today has launched a second battle bus. Having failed to move polling in any meaningful way, and you can't do that without fixing Scottish Labour, the Sarwar plan is to use the same peach colour on his battle bus as the regional ballot paper. This is Sarwar's last stand in a last-ditch appeal for list votes and hope he has done enough to get more list seats than the Scottish Conservatives. Sarwar's "victory" in this election isn't he wants to be First Minister (a bridge too far), he wants to be the leader of the opposition, leapfrog over the Scottish Conservatives, and it is even money on the latest polling, both Labour and the Conservatives sit on 23% of the vote share. If you think back to 2016, Scottish Labour won 21 of its 24 MSPs on the discredited regional list system holding just three constituencies. Hopefully Jackie Baillie with her strong representation skills can hold Dumbarton, the SNP candidate is a carpetbagger Toni Giugliano.

In the final week, Sarwar is doing a tour of the country to drum up the list vote, which begs the question, why isn't he working night and day in Glasgow Southside? One of the myths I read on the internet is that Anas Sarwar has the "Muslim" vote in Glasgow Southside. I find this a strange claim because if he had, he wouldn't have been dumped as an MP in the same area by the utterly bereft of talent and cringe worthy 'rape clause' Alison Thewliss. Although people talk about squaring a circle, when you look at evidence of Sarwar's supposed popularity, you have to wonder where this nonsense comes from. In 2015, Alison Thewliss, a dud, polled 20,658 votes, compared to Anas Sarwar getting 12,996. When a new Labour candidate fought the 2017 snap election for Westminster, Faten Hameed, she polled 13,829, she has now joined the Scottish Conservatives. Anas Sarwar's influence in this election isn't nationwide, he is a Glasgow phenomenon, and London Labour is going to find that out.

Anyway, in spinning his chances, Sarwar said:

“It’s clear that the momentum is with us in this election campaign. You can see that we are the ones rising in the polls and our message is cutting through to the public around not going back to the old arguments.”

After 5 weeks of campaigning, private educated middle class millionaire Anas Sarwar is still using the same lines, of course if a story is worth telling, it is worth telling well, but does a story based on lack of substance really appeal. In this election, Anas Sawar will be remembered not for winning it and becoming First Minister but for saying 'grow up' to Douglas Ross. He will be remembered for not forming a coalition and standing down candidates to boost his party's chances. Anas Sarwar is the kind of leader who waited so long to become one that when he finally got it, he found he couldn't lead. In fact, his leadership contest was rushed through by the Labour Party so that any potential real leader couldn't be considered. That Scottish Labour leadership contest which will mostly be forgotten was an actual watershed moment. It was the reinforcement of a return to the failure of the right wing which was the sole cause of Scottish Labour decline over the last 20 plus years. In the post aftermath of losing, don't expect Anas Sarwar to reform the Scottish Labour Party, don't expect a review, just expect him and the other list system 'hostages' to carry on business as usual at Holyrood.

And before I forget, Anas Sarwar wouldn't be putting into effective a National Recovery Plan!

In the battle of second place, however, Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross this week predicted his party would hold on to second place at Holyrood, and he says that he and his party will remain the principal opposition. The Scottish Conservatives' campaign has been a lacklustre affair, I think in part it was because of covid, but more to do with the fact that Douglas Ross wasn't able to commit to give up his football duties as a linesman or referee. Jackson Carlaw was forced out for someone who wouldn't commit to Holyrood. The fact Douglas Ross wouldn't give up Westminster speaks volumes if elected, in my opinion, Jackson Carlaw should have led this campaign instead of Ruth Davidson as Douglas Ross' proxy. Ruth Davidson is off to be a peer, but I suspect she is lined up for a Scotland Office job, so she doesn't lose out financially. We will wait for that horse to come in down the line.

In not wanting to commit as well, and this seems to be a theme emerging from list politicians, Sarwar predicted Labour support to carry on rising. Is that based on the natural reaction that during a short campaign support for a party rises? What interests me, is whether people in places like Glasgow will click that their list vote going to Alba could generate an MSP or if enough numbers jump onboard even two. This year's loser in Glasgow is increasingly likely looking to be the second Conservative list seat. Anyway, it should be noted that the Scottish Conservatives, need to do long campaigning in constituencies to build up their vote, waving a Union Jack flag isn't enough anymore. I am not surprised that Sarwar wouldn't commit to saying that if Labour would come second, that would make him a hostage to fortune.

He said:

“We are making substantive progress and I want us to continue that progress over the next week and get the best result we can to demonstrate progress. I think even our biggest critics accept that we are making progress. I think you can see the way the campaign is going, the way the message is cutting through, that we are making progress. And so, what would, what would just remind people of is where we were eight weeks ago. Eight weeks ago we were at 14% in the polls, the Greens were saying that we were going to be pushed into fourth place, and the debate was whether Labour would get 15 MSPs or not, and even ask a question at FMQs. So we are making progress, and I want that progress to continue, but the next week is really crucial. I want to persuade as many people as possible over the course of the next week to vote Labour, to use their second vote in particular for Labour, and let's get the best result we can.”

He added:

“The momentum is with us. Our vote is increasing both in the constituency and on the list. Their vote is coming down. Every other political party’s vote is coming down. Our vote is going up in the constituency and is going up, and I think over the next week we can carry on that momentum and pull off some surprises on 6th May.”

Launched the new Scottish Labour bus, it reads on the side:

“Use your second vote for Anas Sarwar’s Labour” with a picture of a ballot paper with a vote for Scottish Labour. 

He said:

“We have one week to go. One week to ensure that the people of Scotland get a parliament focused on the national recovery, not the old arguments. We simply can’t come through the collective trauma of Covid and go back to the old arguments. While the Tories are playing political games, my only priority is delivering our national recovery from Covid. We have had 14 years of SNP broken promises and failure, we can’t afford to have a government or a parliament that takes its eye off the ball from the recovery. That’s why a vote for Labour matters. For the next six days, I will be travelling the length and breadth of Scotland, taking Labour’s message of hope and unity to every community and saying that we can choose to focus on what unites us not what divides us.”

Finally, this year, I spent two months working unpaid effectively for Scottish Labour. During that time, I was subject to a vile nasty vicious smear campaign accusing me of being a racist, and breaking the law on data protection. Despite this, and acting in good faith, I signed to do the Pollok CLP campaign, on that campaign, I was publicly abused by someone who signed up as a supporter for Anas Sarwar for leader page on Facebook. In his BBC interview, Anas Sarwar said he wanted to give the people of Scotland, the Labour Party they deserved, I think that Scottish Labour need to go take a real hard look at themselves. On his second battle bus, the peach one, he declares vote for Anas Sarwar’s Labour, I am familiar with the concept act like a winner even although you are going to lose, but to act like a loser prior to the ballot is a new one on me. There should have been two red Labour buses to reinforce the only message that Scottish Labour's candidates are standing to win constituencies, not effectively admitting they can't win any.  

Yours sincerely 

George Laird                                                                                                                                The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University