Monday, November 25, 2019

The Human Factor; First Scottish election poll predicts electoral wipeout for Labour in Scotland, polling says only one seat, data and analysis are good indicators, but one thing you cannot rule out of the mix is the emotional element swimming about in the back of people’s minds, so watch Glasgow North East and Glasgow East for Labour wins



















Dear All

I said it before, and I will say it again, the Labour Party needs to change its policy on Brexit, if proof was needed, the continual polls show that the Conservative Party are clearly in the lead by a substantial margin with their policy. So, for the cheap seats, the Labour Party needs to be pro Brexit, without this, there can be no level playing field. From a Scottish perspective, the first Scottish opinion poll is proving more than disappointing to Scottish Labour. If this polling holds up, the data suggests the party stands to lose all but one of its seats in Scotland. Although personally, I think there is an area of margin within this result. In Glasgow, there are many marginal seats, and to say that of the seven seats held by Labour in Scotland, only Edinburgh South's incumbent Ian Murray would return to the House of Commons doesn’t paint the full picture.

I would also expect Labour incumbent Paul Sweeney to hold Glasgow North East.

I also expect Scottish Labour would possibly be in a good position to secure a second seat at Glasgow East. Why Glasgow East, well, the SNP Candidate David Linden in securing more TV exposure just comes across as weak, brainwashed and clueless.

Andrew Neil of the BBC literally destroyed David Linden on policy and substance.


Why do people think they can walk into an interview with Andrew Neil and just waffle? The youtube clip is a rather painful lesson on the dangers of being unprepared and facing an expert interviewer. If you don’t know your subject, don’t cross into unknown territory and expect safe passage. David Linden wanted to up his profile, and he did, he came across as clueless, rather than garnering votes, I think his appearance harmed his chances of holding onto the seat. He could be one of the minor SNP scalps to fall on the 12th December.

I think, there is a better than average chance of two seats in Glasgow being won by Scottish Labour, not reflected in the polls nor at the bookies.

Data and analysis are good indicators, but one thing you cannot rule out of the mix is the emotional element swimming about in the back of people’s minds. The Panelbase study for the Sunday Times predicting a wipeout for Scottish Labour is nothing new. Prior to winning his seat in 2017, Labour candidate Paul Sweeney was 16/1 at the bookies, he was at the start of that campaign thinking a good night was to cut into the SNP majority, but I knew different.

Glasgow North East of all the seats in Glasgow; was the only seat in Glasgow I said would fall in 2017.

George Laird right again.

This election is more complex than the 2017 variety, but you can look beyond analysis towards the human factor or ‘feel’ you get from canvassing, general chatting and more importantly listening. Politicians love to talk, but if you don’t listen to your audience, you are missing the wider picture. Strathclyde University Professor Sir John Curtice says, the SNP are on course for another electoral win in Scotland, his opinion is that they will see their seats rise from 35 to 41. This is still a decent result but nowhere near the 2015 result of 56 MPs. The dam was broken by Conservatives and Labour in 2017, but the ability to capitalise or develop the brand over the last two and half years hasn’t fully exploited.
The pitch by both Labour and Conservative should be that they can deliver want the SNP cannot from Westminster, this is a strength the SNP don’t have, and will never have, the SNP cannot shape Scotland, only the parties of the Union can do this.

So, why aren’t they doing this?

Because no one is thinking this, that’s why.

Panelbase puts the SNP on 40%, the Conservatives on 28%, Labour on 20%, and the Liberal Democrats on 11%. It is easy to notice a bounce in the step of the Scottish Conservatives, and 28% must bhoy them up no end, but Scottish Labour on 20% must set heads scratching.

After all, their manifesto has a lot of appeal to it.


One million Scots voted for Brexit, and they had the whole Scottish establishment ranged against them, their voices have been ignored. They will be keen to vote for a party that can win a seat, and deliver Brexit. The Brexit Party chances in Scotland are in my opinion … nil. Yes, Brexit Party candidates are standing but they don’t have enough people to mount a Westminster campaign, and importantly, they will have no ‘long campaigning’ behind them in communities. Their votes per seat will probably average out in line with what Ukip would get on a good night.

If you look at this election, the SNP is running the same campaign against Scottish Labour that it did in 2015 and 2017, convincing Labour voters that they will work with Jeremy Corbyn to put a Labour Government in. But the fly in the ointment is that a Labour government must give them what they want when they want it. Basically a blackmail-esque type of arrangement, and not even subtle about it!  The trick, or ploy however isn’t about putting a Labour govt in but merely a device to shut Labour out of Scottish seats.

The Scottish Labour Party hasn’t ever addressed this SNP trick of them hijacking traditional Labour voters, but they need to. Scottish Labour needs to go backwards, backwards to the days of John Smith, not just for inspiration but also for faith. The lessons of 2015 and 2017 haven’t been learned, and if you can’t learn from the past, your chances of having a future are diminished.

If you want more painful reading on Labour’s plight, then I suggest this article.


The Conservatives are on track to win the general election with 349 MPs, how many of them from Scotland are reckoned to be about 12, down one from 2017.

Finally, is it too late for the Labour Party to alter course on Brexit? Without a level playing field, the chances of a Labour govt seem remote. A landslide by the Conservatives will be a sore lesson for the Labour Party to learn about Brexit. Especially if they are sitting in Westminster with a predicted 213 seats, and only one MP in Scotland. Personally, I think we are looking at more than one Labour MP in Scotland, I don't have feel of SNP return to the heyday of 2015. I am thinking that two Labour MPs will emerge from Glasgow, Glasgow North East and Glasgow East on the night of the count. 

They will have to work their socks off for the win, but it is doable.

Yours sincerely

George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University

4 comments:

  1. I reckon that the elephant in the room is Brexit. Labour have not woken up to get their arse into gear to win back their Scottish voters, the Tories are making some slow gains on the SNP but not quick enough so far, possibly same reason as Labour, and the Brexit party are just a protest vote one-issue party. If Labour did a quick U-Turn on Brexit they might stand a chance, but I doubt it's going to happen.

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  2. Watched Blackford intw on BBC usual swarmy bullshit as usual. SNP are hoping for a Labour government but I can't see this. Labour need to rid themselves of Corbyn sharpish if they have any hope of power.

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  3. Agreed that Labour and Conservatives have failed to exploit the 2017 pushback and that they should play up the power of Westminster.

    Wrt Conservatives, their problem is the only thing they conserve is opposition policy. As Robert Dabney wrote over a century ago:
    [C]onservatism is merely the shadow that follows Radicalism as it moves forward towards perdition. It remains behind it, but never retards it, and always advances near its leader. … It is worthless because it is the conservatism of expediency only, and not of sturdy principle.

    The devolution model, as I’ve written here before(*), was the wrong model and has manifestly failed in its stated aims of settling nationalist aspirations and decentralising power, instead promoting petty-nationalism and division across our Kingdom (note calls for English, Cornish, Yorkshire and Wessex devolution/separation) and only ‘off-centralising’ power (quasi-national police, fire service, etc). There is nothing Holyrood can do that cannot be done far more effectively either at the local, community level or by Westminster—Hr is an expensive and entirely unnecessary layer of government. (E.g. fishing. Let Orkneys, Lerwick, Fraserburgh, etc. run their own affairs as far as practicable as they used to; matters outwith their competence (negotiating treaties defining fishing grounds, despatching RN vessels to protect our fishing grounds, etc.) can be brought to the attention of Westminster, whose proper preserve those powers are. Hr is too remote, geographically and metaphorically, from the fishing industry to run it competently, and it does not have the powers to protect or negotiate fishing grounds.)

    Yet the Conservatives will utter not one word against it.

    Tim Luckhurst argued all the way back in 2001: ‘Even in the celebratory mist that greeted its creation, a good quarter of Scots remained bitterly opposed to the Scottish parliament: 614,400 voted no to any kind of devolution. The Tories can only dream about that level of support. But that was then and much has changed. … No, there is no majority for abolition but there is a growing minority which would rush to vote for a party which said “Enough. We told you it would be a disaster and it is a disaster. We promise to repeal the Scotland Act.”’ (Luckhurst, T. (2001) Turn again, Scottish Tories.” Spectator, 286(8997), 16–17.)

    18 years later, who knows if there is a ‘majority for abolition’? No-one deigns to ask us; but there is increasing discontent with the SNP’s antics and Hr’s failures, and 2017 was the first time since 1992 Conservatives beat that figure of 614,400.

    Yet the Conservatives make little effort to build on their 2017 result, and their attitude to the SNP and Hr is reminiscent of an elephant terrified of a mouse.

    (* Although I was wrong in stating ‘not even the Swiss allow their cantons to run their own police forces’—they do.)

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  4. Labours manifesto is good. It’s a shame labours core vote has lost faith and doesn't trust them. Who can blame them? Anyone remember the joy when Labour won in 1997 and what did we get. More Thatcherism. Policies so awful that even Mrs Thatcher wouldn't contemplate. It was Labour that introduced benefit sanctions, welfare to work, atos and food banks. As a socialist I’m voting Tory. Never again will I be conned by fake socialist and fake trade unionist.

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