Plots, Plans and Secret Meetings, Team Boris and Team Farage contemplating the Brexit future, Nigel Farage says election pact with Boris Johnson could deliver ‘massive majority’, deliver Brexit and shut Jeremy Corbyn out of Number 10, is there a possible early General Election being planned?

Dear All

The race for Number 10 Downing Street has begun, however like Wimbledon tennis championships, prior to that main event, there is a primer. In the case of politics, the primer for who will be resident in Number 10 depends on what happens with Brexit. There is a little matter of who will be next leader of the Conservatives to be decided, between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. In reality if you look at this contest, it was always going to boil down between these people.

A clear cut contest between, Brexit and Remain, between, establishment and anti-establishment!

What is needed is a Brexit Prime Minister who is willing to walk away without a deal from the EU.

This little gem caught my eye which to me casts doubt on whether the UK will leave the EU on the new deadline of 31^st October. Nigel Farage is said to have had a secret meeting with the Conservatives in an exclusive Mayfair club. The talks are said to concern a secret pact to keep Labour out of No. 10.

Now, given the next election isn’t until 2022, you can see why such a meeting would raise eyebrows. If Brexit is delivered on 31^st October 2019, in three months, the Brexit Party wouldn’t have a reason for existing. This meeting of Nigel Farage with pro-Boris MP Priti Patel also flags up the possible notion that an early General Election is being considered by the Boris camp.

Given what happened in the European Election to the Conservative vote, you would think that anyone who becomes Prime Minister would wish to run the clock down on their premiership to the 2022 election.

If you ask why, the main reason is to build some momentum around their brand, preferably with a record of success, particularly relating to Brexit. Of course the European Election was a disaster as well for the Labour Party but they had other issues plaguing them such as the ‘civil war’ between the left and right for control of the party.

One thing to look at seriously is that electoral strategists for both Johnson and Farage are working out how to maximise support for Brexit in a General Election. If you look at the last by-election, it is true the Brexit party done well. We should also remember the by-elections are ‘specials’ in that people from all over the country would come to it to volunteer. In a General Election, the Brexit Party would be at a major disadvantage in a first past the post fight. Firstly, they really don’t have the ground operation in place; neither do they have enough people on the ground or behind the scenes.

The European Election was fought in part with people who previously were in other parties, and in one case, was in another party.

The Brexit Party also don’t know where exactly their vote is in an area as they don’t have a database of voters’ information. They also don’t have the time to construct one or the people to do the legwork to make sure their data is up to date. Add to the list, they don’t have the structures in place to run a traditional constituency campaign for Westminster. They don’t have local knowledge and they don’t have enough experienced activists who know how to cover an area quickly and in the most logical manner.

There is to be another by-election down south which may or may not shed some more light on how the Brexit Party operates. The lack of ‘long campaigns’ by the Brexit Party however is a major problem, because ‘long’ campaigns are where you build up your support. If you throw in lack of policies, you will see that Nigel Farage who climbed a mountain in the European Elections, was really in the foothills, the real mountain is climbing Westminster. Social media will take you so far, rallies will take you so far but the blood and guts of doorstep campaigning and stalls are needed; people need to see you out and about in their area for you to be seen as viable.

And you have to be seen as viable.

One of the dangers of having a pact as seen in the Cameron/Clegg arrangement of 2010 is that one side ends up losing support badly. The Lib Dems under Nick Clegg basically were turned on by the public in a most spectacularly way. This is something which must have dawned on Nigel Farage, is it likely that there could be a Conservative/ Brexit Party coalition if there was a hung parliament in 2022? Well it is possible, but the Brexit Party support relies heavily and exclusively on the fact there is no Brexit. What would their support be if they attained their goal of ‘hard Brexit’? Would their support drop, highly likely as politics would return to normality, but the question is what level of support would that be in a post Brexit UK?

A mechanism for a pact apparently centred on discussions on a deal under which MPs in an administration formed by Johnson would agree to stand aside in certain seats in favour of Farage’s party. The idea would be to avoid splitting the pro-Brexit vote. In Scotland, the Brexit Party managed to get 18% of the vote share in the European elections, this put the party second in polling. The problem in Scotland is different, you have to factor in the SNP and as polls show, they appear set to retake seats they previously lost in 2017. If the same vote share held for the 2021 Holyrood election, there would be a Brexit Party list MSPs, but no FPTP seats. So, would the Brexit Party in Scotland fight the Scottish Election of 2021 for Holyrood or would they bypass it altogether if they think they would lose momentum for 2022 Westminster? Or is another scenario that they only put people up on the list system only, if they get anyone then they milk it for all its worth.

Decisions, decisions, decisions!

When you look at the Labour Party, the ‘civil war’ between the left and right hasn’t gone well, toss in Brexit and a few other factors and you can see major hurdles in Jeremy Corbyn’s task to form the next Labour Government. One of the tacks in his shoe is people such as David Miliband who wants to block Brexit. Miliband has come out full-heartedly for a second referendum, saying the public must be given a chance to change their minds. Like what happened to the Irish, Miliband wants to cheat the people of the UK out of the 2016 EU referendum result. His hope is to try to get a win and thereby remove the pressure and blame off the political elite who keep stalling the process. Some people like Caroline Flint, who represents Leave-backing Don Valley, have warned that the party risked losing 40 MPs to the Brexit Party and Conservatives if it failed to honour the result from 2016. Isn’t amaziong how concerned some people are about democracy when they stand being ejected from Parliament by the people? If you are a Labour MP in the North of England or Scotland, you have your work cut out to stay in public office.

One time David Miliband was seen as the possible ‘saviour’ of the Labour Party, now, he is like someone wanting to toss Jeremy Corbyn an anvil in the deep end of a swimming pool.

A second referendum is political poison to the Labour Party, having wrongly sat on the fence which caused a drop in support; they now back the wrong option of a second referendum. In Scotland, Labour leader Richard Leonard climbed on board with this option after the European Election which saw the party plunge to 9.5% of the vote and no MEPs.

Anyone think David Miliband is a ‘saviour in waiting’ of the Labour Party?

Labour MP Caroline Flint is right to warn the party risks losing dozens of MPs and she vows to back No Deal if necessary, it is amazing how the right motivation can push people toward doing the right thing. The right motivation in the case of Flint is keeping her seat, personal survival when you head is on the chopping block does wonders. Caroline Flint is aware of the new reality relating to Brexit, ‘we are leaving’. The constitutional crisis is real, there is no other game in town bar Brexit, everyone knows it, particularly in the Conservative Party.

Finally, whether there is a pact between the Conservative Party and the Brexit Party is still a dream, even if these people are meeting at a £1,500-a-year private members’ club. I don’t believe that this was an accidental meeting because I doubt that Nigel Farage, Arron Banks, DUP MP Ian Paisley Jr and pro-Boris MP Priti Patel just all collided one night. But, it does make you wonder if there is a Boris Johnson premiership will he opt for an early election? You can’t help but remember what happened when Theresa May went to the country in 2017 and how that turned out.

Personally, I would run down the clock!

Yours sincerely

George Laird

The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University