Dear All
The 2021 Holyrood election is odd, it is odd because, a system which was setup to be rigged, is now is being actually rigged. The Holyrood system is flawed because of what is termed the 'list system'. The list system doesn't allow the Scottish public to reject a candidate, basically party appoint additional candidates based on their vote share. This allows for cronyism to flourish and it is easy to rig the system, if you know how. How do you rig the system, one sure fire way is to introduce a 50/50 rule, so that a party must allocate equal amount of seats to both men and women. This is called "positive discrimination" by politicians, when in fact, it is the same type of discrimination as denying someone a job based on colour or, religon, but in this case, you are denying someone a job based on sex. You have heard of all women short lists, but you don't hear of 'all men shortlists', because if a party had an 'all men shortlists', there would be outrage, but same hypocrites stay silent on their institutional abuse.
This means for example, a man get more votes than a woman in a fair and free election contest played by the rules, get over the winning line, and still lose. But any definition of natural justice, this wrong, unfair and anti democratic. Although the contest is run under the rules of fairness which candidates must obey or face sanction, another set of rules is used after the voting has closed. This is why Labour MSP James Kelly will be out of Holyrood, unless the Scottish Labour Party wins seats in Glasgow. He needs Anas Sarwar to win his seat and someone else to win to give him the opportunity to return to Holyrood on the list, or his third bite at the cherry is that he wins his seat in Rutherglen, first past the post back from the SNP.
The Holyrood list system is a systemic abuse of democracy!
Another parties in the 'list' race, is Alex Salmond’s Alba Party, a recent poll showed that they were on 3%, but it is said that Salmond's party might end up with 6% per cent of the list vote. The problem that Salmond has, is that although tactical voting is not a new concept, getting enough people to understand and do it is. The SNP under Nicola Sturgeon are keen to keep Salmond out of Holyrood, because if there is a change and Holyrood MSPs get parliamentary privilege, then Salmond use Holyrood as a forum to 'try' Nicola Sturgeon, her husband, Sturgeon's Chief of Staff, and anyone else who takes his fancy. Salmond can name names, and say fuck you to Sturgeon and her pet rat, James Wolffe.
At the present moment, the election seems like a phoney war of sorts, it's been slow to start, as policies have been less than dynamic. No one is saying anything worthwhile, and some parties are saying nearly the same thing. Ask yourself, what is the biggest idea you have heard from the any of the candidates which you think sets the heather on fire? If you have a policy which you think is real change, let me know in the comments section and why you think this is the business.
Polling suggests that if the Alba Party can 'game the system', then pro-independence parties could win 79 of the Scottish Parliament’s 129 seats in the upcoming election. Obviously, this would leave 40 seats to be shared between Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Lib Dems, the Scottish Greens and possibly, All for Unity. We know the last 5 years have been riddled with incompetence and corruption, are we in for 5 more years of the same shit? If pro UK parties do badly, then it lends weight to the argument that these parties couldn't internal fight a second Scottish independence referendum. Quick, since Anas Sarwar became leader, have you heard him make a speech on internal Scottish Labour Party reform? The reason, I ask this question is simply, the Scottish Labour Party machine is broken. I have commented on the need for a new campaigning model, but it seems that I am basically talking a language which few people seem to understand. Come the day after May 6th, if some people see little or no change in the make-up of Holyrood, they will realise two things, one, people will vote for a corrupt morally degenerate party like the SNP, and two, the people standing as candidates and losing again for the other parties, should be replaced by professional campaigners who will campaign for the full 5 years between elections. That doesn't mean the work they do as a 'list' MSP, but as an activist in a constituency. That would translate as 5 years of door to door, face to face campaigning.
But let's stick with Alba for a tad, the latest poll for the Sunday Times has them just above the threshold required in most of Scotland’s parliamentary regions to pick up a list seat. It has been touted that they could get anywhere between mid 20's and 30's on social media, but, reality could kick in and the party could end up securing just 6 seats. Being on 6 seats, and if Salmond gets one, his main goal is complete, back in Holyrood. I am sure he would like Tasmina Ahmed-Shiekh elected as well, he would need a friend to dine with in the Holyrood canteen. I remember writing a blog post of Joan Mcalpine years ago, called 'the return of the deer muncher'.
http://glasgowunihumanrights.blogspot.com/2012/05/return-of-deer-muncher-snp-msp-joan.html
Joan McAlpine was previously an aide to Alex Salmond, but I doubt under the Sturgeon regime her and Alex could sit down. 2012, McAlpine was tucking into smoked venison with Strathdon Blue cheese dressing and poached red wine pear, followed by breast of Scottish chicken with grilled asparagus chorizo, olives and parma ham. And let's not forget the bevvy at lunch time, the meal was washed down with a bottle of Pinot Grigio priced at just over £15. Salmond had just asparagus and soup. Could they be dining partners again? Who knows, and basically who cares, but you can eat well it seems at Holyrood! Campaigning is all about momentum for parties, latest polling mentions that in the constituency vote, the SNP had gained two points, up to 49%. This shows that pro UK parties need to get their fingers, and stop making vague promises, so far their 'offer' to votes needs rewritten substantially. Scottish Conservatives are sitting on 22%, Scottish Labour, despite all the hype of a new leader in the shape of Anas Sarwar has remained unchanged on 20%. Sarwar's goal, if he has one, is that he wants to take back the title of official opposition leader. Labour having to wait till after the Scottish Conservatives say their piece doesn't really work for them. Alba won't do constituency seats this time round, but when Nicola Sturgeon doesn't deliver a second independence referendum, that will change, a test run to undermine the SNP will certainly start at the 2022 council elections, the real test with several years of bitching against Sturgeon will be in 2024 for Westminster.
You can see how important it is for Alba to get independence voters on the regional list, they will be directly fishing in the SNP voter pool. A lot is expected in this election if you believe some people's claims, but you might not see much difference. Is 6 Alba list MSPs anymore 'a force' than 7 SSP list MSPs? The most important man in the 2021 Holyrood election is standing, he isn't in Holyrood, he isn't in Scotland, he is Boris Johnson. As Salmond does his will of the Scottish spiel, remember this, it is just horseshit, his views are meaningless, just as the SSP were when they joined what I called back indyref 1, the 'coalition of the damned'. Salmond represents, firstly entertainment value, secondly, he is the guy who is pissing into the SNP tent, watch out for that! Nicola Sturgeon will be in the tent, watching her back, she is surrounded by people who will brief against her. If Sturgeon wins, her next 5 years are all going to be bunker mentality. In the regional list, the jist at present, that the Scottish Conservatives are down one to 21%, Labour down two on 17%, the Greens on 8%, Alba on 6% and Liberals down two points to 5%. Bad news for Scottish Labour, if Alba gets more support beyond 6%, then we could see a situation where only 3 Labour list MSPs are returned in Glasgow. In a scenario like that, it would mean Pamela Duncan-Glancy, the fourth on the Glasgow list for Labour would miss out. Pam is also standing in Glasgow Kelvin, she replaced Hollie Cameron who was removed, and this caused the Kelvin CLP to resign. I asked Anas Sarwar when this happened to consider me, not even the courtesy of an acknowledgment.
Nice to know you are appreciated not!
One little schism which is worth watching in this election is whether, the George Galloway-led All For Unity party’s support rises, at present on the list, they are at 4%. 4% means according to Professor Sir John Curtice, one single MSP. This although, it is not the greatest is a start, one is certainly better than none, but like Alba fishing for SNP voters, All For Unity needs Pro UK Labour voters to switch, this for example puts pressure on the Glasgow List as I mentioned above. It's an odd election, and surprises might happen, and the word really is 'might', it could be that voters remain locked in their traditional voting pattern, but the tale of the tape is 'the count'. The only real poll is election day.
I have a lot of respect for Prof Curtice because him and his wife do charity work, and I have had a good few discussions with him, in fact, we were even guests together on BBC Radio 5 live. That was on the day of the launch of the SNP white paper, batting for the SNP at that programme was the odious Natalie McGarry. At the end of the broadcast, I did a quick speech on the most important thing in politics. The single most important thing is trust, I said the people of Scotland don't trust Alex Salmond, McGarry's cheesy pitch had to be scrapped in favour of trying to rebut me. A final thing about McGarry, she is going to be appearing in court again for her retrial.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natalie_McGarry
Prof Curtice is saying at this point, the SNP would win 65, Scottish Conservatives, 24, Labour would have only 20. Lib Dems would remain on 5, Greens would get 8, Alba trots in with 6 and last limping in with a single seat All for Unity. But, as Harold Wilson, former PM said, "a week is a long time in politics", and there are about 5 weeks left of this race. It's all up for grabs, literally, the arse could fall out of the SNP just the same as anyone else's given the right scandal. Alex Salmond says he welcomes the latest poll, saying the party was "gaining ground". When you start from nothing, absolute zero, up is the only direction, question is, can he keep going up? Are we to see 5 more weeks of SNP defections as part of a strategy to win over SNP voters to Alba?
Salmond said:
“We have only just begun to make our case, but ALBA is already registering as the standard bearer of the Independence #Supermajority. The reality that voting SNP on the list is the ultimate wasted vote is starting to cut through. And therefore ALBA is gaining ground. In a single week ALBA has overtaken the Liberal Democrats, a party which has been around for 150 years, in both membership and poll ratings. A week is a long time in politics. And for the unionist parties the next five weeks shall be a political eternity.”
Finally,
you will note that Salmond uses the same Harold Wilson quote as me, it's an age
thing. If Salmond doesn't make it onto the list, then he is back working on his
TV show for the RT Channel. If his party's vote drops back, just a little bit,
then he might end up with only 3 MSPs. This would dent his #supermajority nonsense. Maybe he isn't one of the MSPs and maybe neither
is serial carpetbagger Tasmina Ahmed-Shiekh. Could imagine both of them, faces
pressed at the windows of Holyrood, looking at the canteen, no invites to go
inside from former buddies? There could be laughs, there could be tears in this
election, it all depends on which way the voting public jumps. And consider
this, the biggest voter cache in this election maybe those who will not vote at all.
Yours sincerely
George Laird The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University
The list or additional members system or AMS is a rather odd hybrid at best, at worst a poor attempt at achieving proportional representation.
ReplyDeleteCould I add a few observations as an ex member of a political party and former employee of an MSP:
a) It is well known that regional seats are usually occupied by those who are very loyal to their political parties, give them no hassle (meaning they never rebel) and are well ingratiated with those running the party machine. And usually the higher up the list the more this seems relevant.
b) Regional members have no accountability to their local constituency parties.
c) A party will very often select a list candidate to run simultaneously on a constituency ballot knowing full well that they have little to no chance of winning the latter. This means two things, firstly that they are fielding what amounts to a paper candidate to contest the local seat usually because there is no one else suitable to run and secondly, the candidate cannot really lose because if they fail to win on a first past the post system they are assured of a seat on the regional list. This happened in 2003 where a Labour candidate came third in a constituency vote but still got elected to Holyrood because they occupied a pole position on the party's regional list.
This last observation is telling in light of the experience of AMS in other countries, and how it fared in the experience of voters. Allegedly, AMS earned a bad reputation in Germany because of candidates who had been rejected in constituency elections only to return via the regional list. Effectively this meant that electors couldn't always get rid of unpopular politicians even through tactical voting.
The only antidote I see to this is to scrap AMS altogether and introduce a single transferable vote as was done for the local authority elections. If it's good enough to elect councillors, then why not MSP's?