Holyrood 2021, the Dead Cat Bounce Election; Odious Nicola Sturgeon unveils her pathetic SNP manifesto commitment to Indyref2, lies for the gullible in a lukewarm election campaign, Prime Minister Boris Johnson isn't granted Sturgeon a Section 30 order, the real question that voters may end up asking, is there really an election on, and does it really matter at Holyrood when no one will commit to change the same rotten structure that party leaders make a comfortable living from?

Dear All 

It's lying time again, it's false promise time again, it is the SNP Manifesto launch! 

Aside from the usual SNP drivel, the main lie fed to gullible Scottish people is SNP Leader Nicola Sturgeon saying that a second independence referendum could be held in the next parliamentary term. Sturgeon is making promises that she cannot keep, neither legally or morally. If Sturgeon has a mission, it is to destroy the infrastructure of Scotland, destroy the educational life chances of kids, and destroy the social fabric of our society with identity politics. 

Under Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland is a failed State, it is a divided country with the worst aspects of a banana republic. Education is destroyed, health care is restricted, law and order administered by the Crown Office is compromised. The signs of infrastructural decline are all around you, you can probably walk less than 100 yards from your house and see them. Do you live in pothole Glasgow Central, do you live in fly tipping Govanhill, do you live in Dogshit on the pavement Craigton? Since 2012, the SNP have treated Government as a part time job, and as an SNP proxy campaigning vehicle, and that doesn't take into the account the monstrous misuse of public money on failed projects. It seems everything that Nicola Sturgeon touches she fucks it up massively, Ferries, Steel, Airports, and saving companies makes no difference, all doomed, all liabilities!   

In this election, yet again, Nicola Sturgeon wants you to fail to understand how Government works. Nicola Sturgeon is not the leader of Scotland, Boris Johnson is the leader of Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon is the leader of devolved services within a UK structure, she may think she answers to no one, but in fact she answers to the UK Government and to UK institutions such as the Supreme Court. Sturgeon is someone on a legal leash, although she can get to make decisions by herself, those decisions can be challenged. In order for Sturgeon to have a second Scottish referendum, she needs a Section 30 order by the Westminster Government. Boris Johnson has repeatedly among others in his Cabinet said, this order will not be granted. To have a Manifesto promising something she cannot deliver is incredibly disingenuous, because it shows contempt for the democratic process and the people of Scotland. Therefore Nicola Sturgeon is lying, deceiving and conning people that if they vote the SNP back into Government that they can get Boris Johnson to just give her one. 

Boris Johnson will not give Nicola Sturgeon a Section 30 order in the lifetime of this parliament, and I would put money on him if he is PM post 2024, not granting a Section 30 order in the next Westminster Parliament. As I said back during indyref one, the boat has sailed on Scottish independence. Just as the SNP lied through their teeth about protecting people's rights and benefits, they are lying through their teeth now in order to win an election. So, you may ask, if the SNP cannot be trusted and are liars, why can't the opposition parties beat them at the ballot box? The answer to that is because the opposition is weak, and has a track record of being disengaged. What major private members Bills did the opposition bring forward in this parliament? The opposition don't act like various governments in waiting, they act like hostages on the list system. The party leader are unwilling to build up their parties because that could in theory be a catalyst for internal leadership changes. 

If you look at polling from various polling companies over the last month, you will see the leaders debates, policy announcements, and various press releases have to sum up done nothing to sway the voters. The latest panel base polling on the regional vote of 12/4/2021 falls within the margin of error. One thing to note is any single polling cannot be used to paint a picture, but it can perk an interest. The SNP has dropped regional votes, and it seems that Alba is the people who have benefited, but will that trend continue, clearly Alex Salmond wants SNP regional votes, and maybe his plan is working, to make a breakthrough, he needs 6%. If he does hold or go further, he and his party get a good number of seats, who knows he could rival the Scottish Greens who sit on 9%. For those parties such as the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour whose leaders say they want to be the next First Minister, latest polling isn't much of a comfort. Scottish Labour on the regional vote is down to 17%, in the constituency vote, they are at 20%. In Glasgow, this would mean that the SNP would win all constituency seats, and if Alba picks up, they could take a single list seat, the question is who loses out? The obvious answer would be Scottish Greens leader Patrick Harvie, but Alba needs a huge push to shift him. If the Labour vote keeps dropping, maybe they lose a seat list MSP, in 2016, Scottish Labour had 23.8% of the regional vote in Glasgow. The latest polling is bad news for them putting them on 17%. If polling holds up, Scottish Labour will retain their 3rd place in the Scottish Parliament. The honeymoon period normally extended to a new leader in this case, Anas Sarwar will be rather short lived. 

You see London Labour cannot be the UK Government unless they win back Scotland! 

Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar has effectively 20 campaigning days to change the fortunes of Scottish Labour. This election which he is putting all his political capital into as the new kid on the block with all the answers, isn't so far working out. You get a feel of what is termed the dead cat bounce, people are doing things in Labour as 'cogs' without being informed what the 'big picture is'. You may have heard of the dead cat bounce phrase before, it is used in finance, a dead cat bounce is a small, brief recovery in the price of a declining stock. Derived from the idea that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height". The phrase, which originated on Wall Street, is also popularly applied to any case where a subject experiences a brief resurgence during or following a severe decline. Funny enough Anas Sarwar used that today, when he talked about the party under his leadership has went from 14% to 17%. The Scottish Labour Party operation is broken, there isn't an acknowledgment of that within its leadership or the ambition to change from a failed model. It isn't just the campaigning model it is broken, it's the entire operation which should be subject to review. I am sure that Sarwar's colleagues in London will be looking at the Scottish election results, and asking themselves come 2024, can the Scottish Westminster election operation be left to him? If it hasn't started already, I would expect to see Sarwar allies take to social media to blame former leader Richard Leonard, this might make them feel good, but Leonard only inherited a broken party from right wing leaders. Interestingly enough, in a BBC article, it seems Anas has already started with his excuses by saying: 

"I am being honest in saying I don't think I can turn around the decline of the Labour Party in Scotland for the last 20 years in 10 weeks. I can reverse the decline and want us to start rebuilding the Labour Party. I want to give the people of Scotland the Labour Party they deserve."

For years, nearly a decade I wrote about the Labour Party needing fixed, no one was listening then, is  anyone listening now? 

If we get back to Sturgeon, she said a second independence referendum should be held in the next parliamentary term. The word you are looking for here is 'should', I should be a millionaire, but I am not, I should be taller but I am not, should doesn't mean anything in the context of her sentence. At present, Sturgeon is able to hide in plain sight using Covid as cover, if restrictions are gone, her power takes a hit, which is why she isn't proposing holding another vote "while we are still grappling with the Covid crisis". In the age old question, how long is a piece of string, in her case, she wants to make it elastic. Covid gone means her record falls under the spotlight, her next rock to hide under is Covid recovery, which give the SNP distain of helping business is something she will want to drag out. Sturgeon says indyref 2 should take place when the crisis has passed. During this time, and in the aftermath, she will be attacking the UK Conservative Government, specifically Boris Johnson. Laughingly, she says that there will be no "democratic, electoral or moral justification" for Boris Johnson to block a referendum if there is a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament. 

Well, there is, and it is a bigger majority, the Scottish people in 2014 voted to remain in the UK, this is the "democratic, electoral or moral justification", it is all he needs. In order to get elected, Sturgeon is throwing UK taxpayer's cash around like confetti, she committed to freezing income tax rates, and abolishing all NHS dentistry charges if she is re-elected. Sturgeon is effectively buying her way back into power, and then claiming people's votes are a mandate for a referendum. There are people who will vote for freezing income tax rates and for abolishing all NHS dentistry charges, it is called self interest, it is a powerful motivation. 

Finally, leaving aside the indyref issue, there isn't any big ideas from any party to change Scotland. This is a missed opportunity, there are people offering bribes, but no one is offering to change structures. No one is advocating changing the status quo of misery and discrimination. No one is proposing new rights for the majority, no one is proposing ending educational discrimination of the poor in any real sense. No one is proposing fixing the Crown Office. There is nothing on increasing social mobility, nothing on hold people to account for care home deaths etc. In fact, if Holyrood was a council hoose, the real debate is who should be the new tenants running and living in the same rotten structure? Did anyone say they are going to change the voting system to remove the anti-democratic list system? Did anyone from the main parties even propose changing the list system so a person is ineligible after two consecutive terms? Did anyone come up with anything other than election bribes? You might be forgiven for asking, is there an election on, and does it really matter at Holyrood?

Yours sincerely 

George Laird                                                                                                                                The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University