Dear
All
Scottish
Labour leader Anas Sarwar did a BBC interview in which he said he couldn't turn
around 20 years of Scottish Labour decline in 6 weeks. As statements go, this
is accurate, however he and others may think that the problem is the Scottish voters
not voting for them. In the 20 years of decline, the Scottish Labour took for
granted the votes of the people, this translated into several things, bad
policies, failing to oppose bad policies inflicted on Scotland by a UK Labour
Government, and allowing careerist minded people to be candidates, then we got stuck with Cllrs, MSPs, and MPs who
didn't serve their constituents. You might say where is the proof of this?
Well, I would direct you to the London Labour cull of 2012, were 20 Labour
Councillors in Glasgow were barred from standing, I would direct you to the generational
falling votes in both Westminster and Holyrood elections because of lack of
representation, when it came to dealing with people's complaints or standing up
for local issues. When I did the 2016 Holyrood election campaign in Govan which
forms part of the Pollok Constituency for Holyrood, people were angry. They
were angry that former Labour MSP Johann Lamont wouldn't back them against a Labour
Council plan to impose metering around their area caused by the traffic around
the Queen Elizabeth University Hospital. Lamont went onto lose in 2016 but it
had taken 17 years for the straw to break the camel's back when it
came to good will being extended. Myself, I did Govan alone, this was because
hardly anyone was willing to work for her, partly due to the dysfunctional
nature of the Pollok CLP and her failing to show any sort of leadership as the
Pollok MSP.
Earlier
this year, I did two months of unpaid work for the Scottish Labour Party as a
campaigner for a candidate to get selected high onto the Labour Party's Glasgow
list, and as procedures secretary for Pollok CLP. I had wanted to step back
from campaigning because I wanted to do personal things, but circumstances
played against me. In fact, I expressed an interest in missing out the Holyrood
campaign because I wanted all the things which I kept shelving due to politics
to start in a meaningful way. As someone not in a Labour Party faction, neither
in what some people recognise as Blairite or Corbynite wings of the party, I
wasn't fussed about Holyrood 2021. That said, I was contacted to do the
campaign, and against my better judgment, and to show good will, yet again to
the party, I decided to do the campaign. So, I said to the Labour election
agent, I would do Govan, then work in Craigton, effectively finish Ward 5 and 6
which sat in the Pollok Constituency, then move into Ward 4. I had a plan of how
I would tackle it. On day two of Holyrood campaigning, a person in the team I
was leading decided to have running arguments with me in front of the rest of
the team. Apparently he didn't like the fact that I was giving orders to a
Labour Councillor concerning the route I wanted him to take. The reason given
to me was that the Councillor "knows the area", well, the question
wasn't whether the Cllr knows the area but whether he can do an assigned route
so that it works in with the rest of the work that the team was doing.
The
final part of this little story after that day, was I took the Easter Holiday
off, two days, I generally don't like to work Sundays, and I don't like to work
on religious Holidays. So, when I returned to campaigning on the Tuesday to the
pick-up spot at 9 am. I found no one there to pick me up for campaigning.
Having waited 15 minutes in the cold, and checking my phone, no one had texted
or called. Later on I got the chance to check my email, no one had emailed me
out of courtesy to explain what was going on. Given that, I came to the
conclusion that I wasn't welcome on the Pollok Labour campaign, so I did what
anyone else would do, I found something better to do with my time. Since, they
haven't been in contact, I can only assume those running the campaign found out
and are too embarrassed to ask me back or they have no problem with what
happened. Either way, I am not sufficiently interested to care, I have put that
campaign behind, but any requests for help will be viewed in an entirely
different fashion in future.
If
you have looked at polling over time, you will see that Anas Sarwar as leader
of Scottish Labour has made no real difference, however, he claims, his party is
the only one with momentum going into the final week of the election. If you
look at polling, you will see that his claim is so spurious, it could literally
be said by any of the parties, including the SNP who have never lost their lead
in this entire campaign. Just in case you forget, when there is a 'short
campaign', parties polling does generate interest. In the case of Scottish
Labour, it isn't because of Anas Sarwar is leader, it is because there is an
election going on. Sarwar having made his success claim is refused to say how
he would measure success, so this begs the question, why? He is waiting for the
results to come in, then he and his advisors will pick something out and use
that as evidence. The only real story of this election that has any interest is
what will happen with Alba led by Alex Salmond. If Alex Salmond gets back into
Holyrood with a small grouping, he will effectively be the opposition to
Sturgeon. Salmond back in the Chamber of Holyrood will be a thorn in Nicola
Sturgeon's side, a reminder that the SNP tried to stitch up an innocent man and
failed.
In
this election for the Scottish Labour, the focus after Anas Sarwar flung in the
towel via the BBC, is the list vote. The Scottish Labour leader today has launched
a second battle bus. Having failed to move polling in any meaningful way, and
you can't do that without fixing Scottish Labour, the Sarwar plan is to use the
same peach colour on his battle bus as the regional ballot paper. This is
Sarwar's last stand in a last-ditch appeal for list votes and hope he has done
enough to get more list seats than the Scottish Conservatives. Sarwar's
"victory" in this election isn't he wants to be First Minister (a
bridge too far), he wants to be the leader of the opposition, leapfrog over the
Scottish Conservatives, and it is even money on the latest polling, both Labour
and the Conservatives sit on 23% of the vote share. If you think back to 2016, Scottish
Labour won 21 of its 24 MSPs on the discredited regional list system holding just
three constituencies. Hopefully Jackie Baillie with her strong representation skills can hold Dumbarton, the SNP candidate is a carpetbagger Toni Giugliano.
In
the final week, Sarwar is doing a tour of the country to drum up the list vote,
which begs the question, why isn't he working night and day in Glasgow
Southside? One of the myths I read on the internet is that Anas Sarwar has the "Muslim"
vote in Glasgow Southside. I find this a strange claim because if he had, he
wouldn't have been dumped as an MP in the same area by the utterly bereft of
talent and cringe worthy 'rape clause' Alison Thewliss. Although people talk
about squaring a circle, when you look at evidence of Sarwar's supposed
popularity, you have to wonder where this nonsense comes from. In 2015, Alison
Thewliss, a dud, polled 20,658 votes, compared to Anas Sarwar getting 12,996.
When a new Labour candidate fought the 2017 snap election for Westminster, Faten
Hameed, she polled 13,829, she has now joined the Scottish Conservatives. Anas
Sarwar's influence in this election isn't nationwide, he is a Glasgow phenomenon,
and London Labour is going to find that out.
Anyway,
in spinning his chances, Sarwar said:
“It’s
clear that the momentum is with us in this election campaign. You can see that
we are the ones rising in the polls and our message is cutting through to the
public around not going back to the old arguments.”
After
5 weeks of campaigning, private educated middle class millionaire Anas Sarwar
is still using the same lines, of course if a story is worth telling, it is
worth telling well, but does a story based on lack of substance really appeal.
In this election, Anas Sawar will be remembered not for winning it and becoming
First Minister but for saying 'grow up' to Douglas Ross. He will be remembered
for not forming a coalition and standing down candidates to boost his party's chances.
Anas Sarwar is the kind of leader who waited so long to become one that when he
finally got it, he found he couldn't lead. In fact, his leadership contest was
rushed through by the Labour Party so that any potential real leader couldn't
be considered. That Scottish Labour leadership contest which will mostly be
forgotten was an actual watershed moment. It was the reinforcement of a return
to the failure of the right wing which was the sole cause of Scottish Labour
decline over the last 20 plus years. In the post aftermath of losing, don't
expect Anas Sarwar to reform the Scottish Labour Party, don't expect a review,
just expect him and the other list system 'hostages' to carry on business as
usual at Holyrood.
And
before I forget, Anas Sarwar wouldn't be putting into effective a National
Recovery Plan!
In
the battle of second place, however, Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross this
week predicted his party would hold on to second place at Holyrood, and he says
that he and his party will remain the principal opposition. The Scottish
Conservatives' campaign has been a lacklustre affair, I think in part it was
because of covid, but more to do with the fact that Douglas Ross wasn't able to
commit to give up his football duties as a linesman or referee. Jackson Carlaw
was forced out for someone who wouldn't commit to Holyrood. The fact Douglas
Ross wouldn't give up Westminster speaks volumes if elected, in my opinion,
Jackson Carlaw should have led this campaign instead of Ruth Davidson as
Douglas Ross' proxy. Ruth Davidson is off to be a peer, but I suspect she is
lined up for a Scotland Office job, so she doesn't lose out financially. We
will wait for that horse to come in down the line.
In
not wanting to commit as well, and this seems to be a theme emerging from list
politicians, Sarwar predicted Labour support to carry on rising. Is that based
on the natural reaction that during a short campaign support for a party rises?
What interests me, is whether people in places like Glasgow will click that
their list vote going to Alba could generate an MSP or if enough numbers jump
onboard even two. This year's loser in Glasgow is increasingly likely looking
to be the second Conservative list seat. Anyway, it should be noted that the
Scottish Conservatives, need to do long campaigning in constituencies to build
up their vote, waving a Union Jack flag isn't enough anymore. I am not surprised
that Sarwar wouldn't commit to saying that if Labour would come second, that
would make him a hostage to fortune.
He
said:
“We
are making substantive progress and I want us to continue that progress over
the next week and get the best result we can to demonstrate progress. I think
even our biggest critics accept that we are making progress. I think you
can see the way the campaign is going, the way the message is cutting through,
that we are making progress. And so, what would, what would just remind people
of is where we were eight weeks ago. Eight weeks ago we were at 14% in the
polls, the Greens were saying that we were going to be pushed into fourth
place, and the debate was whether Labour would get 15 MSPs or not, and even ask
a question at FMQs. So we are making progress, and I want that progress to
continue, but the next week is really crucial. I want to persuade as many
people as possible over the course of the next week to vote Labour, to use
their second vote in particular for Labour, and let's get the best result we
can.”
He
added:
“The
momentum is with us. Our vote is increasing both in the constituency and on the
list. Their vote is coming down. Every other political party’s vote is coming
down. Our vote is going up in the constituency and is going up, and I think
over the next week we can carry on that momentum and pull off some surprises on
6th May.”
Launched
the new Scottish Labour bus, it reads on the side:
“Use
your second vote for Anas Sarwar’s Labour” with a picture of a ballot paper
with a vote for Scottish Labour.
He
said:
“We
have one week to go. One week to ensure that the people of Scotland get a parliament
focused on the national recovery, not the old arguments. We simply can’t come
through the collective trauma of Covid and go back to the old arguments. While
the Tories are playing political games, my only priority is delivering our
national recovery from Covid. We have had 14 years of SNP broken promises and
failure, we can’t afford to have a government or a parliament that takes its
eye off the ball from the recovery. That’s why a vote for Labour matters. For
the next six days, I will be travelling the length and breadth of Scotland,
taking Labour’s message of hope and unity to every community and saying that we
can choose to focus on what unites us not what divides us.”
Finally, this year, I spent two months working unpaid effectively for Scottish Labour. During that time, I was subject to a vile nasty vicious smear campaign accusing me of being a racist, and breaking the law on data protection. Despite this, and acting in good faith, I signed to do the Pollok CLP campaign, on that campaign, I was publicly abused by someone who signed up as a supporter for Anas Sarwar for leader page on Facebook. In his BBC interview, Anas Sarwar said he wanted to give the people of Scotland, the Labour Party they deserved, I think that Scottish Labour need to go take a real hard look at themselves. On his second battle bus, the peach one, he declares vote for Anas Sarwar’s Labour, I am familiar with the concept act like a winner even although you are going to lose, but to act like a loser prior to the ballot is a new one on me. There should have been two red Labour buses to reinforce the only message that Scottish Labour's candidates are standing to win constituencies, not effectively admitting they can't win any.
Yours sincerely
George Laird The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University