More than just an Election; Scottish Conservative leadership election hots up as Jackson Carlaw launches his bid to 'take down' Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP, Jackson says he will do an urgent review of Scottish Conservative policies, is the Boris revolution about to come to Scotland, whoever is the next leader needs to wake up to the fact that the party needs to increase their working class vote in deprived areas

Dear All

There is a saying, ‘go with what you know’ as a rule of thumb that sounds highly reasonable, venturing into unknown territory can be risky, especially if you have no feel for it. Jackson Carlaw is clearly the favourite to win the next Scottish Conservative leadership contest, he has been deputy leader under Ruth Davidson and as interim leader he as filled in for her reasonably well. He has insisted he was the “battle-tested” candidate for the top job in Scotland as leader; he has a point about that one.

However being a political commentator, I sometimes wonder about whether some of the ‘battle tested’ politicians are suffering from a form of PTSD. The reason I voice a concern is this, in order to win the next Holyrood eletion, Jackson Carlaw has to very much appeal to the working class. He would probably describe this as ‘blue collar’ section of society.

So, why make a pitch to his core vote and pledge to cut taxes for middle earners at his launch? If I was him, I would want to know the demographic of the people I need to convince and what I need to do to convince them to give me the post of FM. Appealing to your core is the safe option, and if anything no opposition party can afford not to be doing ‘risky business’.

Jackson Carlaw in his pitch said:

“I have spent the last 18 months taking on Nicola Sturgeon. I am asking you now to let me spend the next 18 months taking her down."

Of course, he is right to focus on Nicola Sturgeon but he should be targeting the lot of her Cabinet, dig up their failures and be specific in pointing out how they messed up. Holyrood 2021 will be a hard fight; it will also be a dirty fight. The reason for this is ‘the prize’, the position of FM.

As a retort Sturgeon replied:

"Tough man talk - but didn’t he just ‘take me on’ in the general election and lose half his seats?  On the strength of that performance, he’s certainly my favoured candidate for Tory leader!"

Jackson it appeared didn’t punch back after that one, but he could have, you see in a fight, nothing is off limits. The object is to win, it isn’t to look to others for approval about what tactic you use or if they would standby you afterwards.

One thing which the Scottish Conservatives would do under Jackson Carlaw is initiate an urgent review of Scottish Conservative policies. It is even hinted that this might include potentially changing its stance on tuition fees. But if that change is just mirroring the SNP stance, and keeping the current status quo of discrimination of the most poorest in society shut out of universities, it will hardly bring him votes. Is Jackson Carlaw going to force universities who take public funding to raise the number of unprivileged students it takes in? You see, if Jackson Carlaw is up for a fight, then he has to win over the working class. If he can’t do that, the only thing he will be taking down after the Holyrood count is his trousers before he pops off to bed.

Jackson Carlaw made his comments as he launched his party leadership bid at an event at the Dynamic Earth visitor attraction in Edinburgh. This is basically across the road from Holyrood, so handy to get too.  This contest is a two horse between him and Michelle Ballantyne, the Scottish Conservative' social security spokeswoman. Although she has over 100 backers, I don’t see her making a home run here. Her post as Scottish Conservative' social security spokeswoman is basically an un-dynamic role. It is un-dynamic because it doesn’t offer the working class a key ingredient….. hope!

During a meeting of the Scottish Parliament's Social Security Committee, Michelle Ballantyne claimed that “there’s no such thing as a bedroom tax”.  Apparently several people and Wikipedia disagree with her.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bedroom_tax

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/jan/27/the-bedroom-tax-explained

Another fumble for Michelle Ballantyne was when she said during an interview there was no hard evidence as to why the use of foodbanks has increased which is bizarre. The DWP stops your money; no have no money so you end up at a foodbank or a soup kitchen. It isn’t rocket science. When you have little or no knowledge of the poor or what it means to be sanction, your vision of life becomes rather distorted. Although Michelle Ballantyne isn’t a career politician, she lacks something in presentation which is a key aspect of putting yourself forward for leader.

I think the safe bet in this contest is Jackson Carlaw, because just as the Boris revolution has begun in England, I don’t see Michelle Ballantyne as the poster person to deliver ‘social conservatism’ in Scotland which is the foundation of attracting ‘blue collar’ voters and the working class.

Any Conservative bid for even a sniff at winning the 2021 Holyrood election must centre on improving the lives of the working class in a real and meaningful sense. The failure to address that concept, the ability to be dynamic on devolution and the understanding that a few carrots can yield a whole crop of votes is needed. In the main, the Scottish Conservatives need to park their tanks on the lawns of both the SNP and Labour for working class votes. This means a radical rethink because waving a union flag isn’t enough, if they don’t get the mentality of the working class’ suck it up and get someone who does and then if you don’t agree with it, keep quiet, because the working class vote is Gold.

Finally, how do you get Gold?

You have to go into areas you wouldn’t normally go into and dig it out by hand and gob, with a special set of tools and policies. Holyrood 2021 is important, and it puts the Scottish Conservatives at a crossroads, they either do well and emerge as a force or government in waiting or they languish in the wings just making up the numbers in Holyrood. 

This is why the Scottish Conservatives have to change to 'social conservatism' and dump the liberal conservatism which holds them back. Rather than saying you are campaigning for every vote, actually campaign for every vote in practice.

Yours sincerely

George Laird

The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University