The Battle for Scotland; Scotland is the land of the marginal seat, important to Labour, important to the Conservatives, the Labour Party fortunes for forming a majority government are tied to success of the Scottish Party, but with a yougov poll of a 12% vote share for Scottish Labour, polls, bookies and John Curtice don’t fancy their chances anytime soon

Dear All

The battle for the UK is really for the Labour Party, the battle of Scotland, although, you might not think so, given the TV coverage seems to be focused on what happens down south. One thing for certain is that either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn will be rolling in 10 Downing Street on the 13th December. In order for Jeremy Corbyn to do that neat trick, he must take back Scottish seats lost to the SNP. Is that possible, well technically given that 30 out of 35 seats currently held by the SNP are marginal, the answer is yes. However, the problem is not a technical issue, but one of events, personalities and policies.

If you take the time to look at polling, the Conservatives from a UK perspective dominate, a recent poll of 17% lead has put a spring in their step; even the Scottish Conservatives seem to be rather upbeat in this election. Big poll leads have an unfortunate tendency to whittle away, so it will be interesting to see if that can be achieved by a Labour revival, especially in Scotland. Scotland may appear a sideshow due to the SNP being so dominate but they are also skating on thin ice. The SNP have for some time seen their voter share drop at elections, but not enough to let other parties win seats.

Given there are so many marginal seats dotted around the place, being the incumbent may on the surface be great but it is like a tree branch which you can hear cracking under you, some hear the cracking more than others. As well as polling, if you look at the bookies you would think that the SNP has this election in the bag, in Glasgow, not a single Labour MP is expected to be elected, but polling and the bookies aren’t everything. There are the issues of loyalty and emotion which could play in this election as well. Glasgow North East elected a Labour MP in 2017, against the polling and against the bookies, overturning the biggest SNP majority in the city.

Labour candidate Paul Sweeney is standing again, this time round, he has a good track record to point to as well as thousands of satisfied residents who helped with problems. His campaign will attract attention given that this time, the SNP will be putting in a bigger effort to unseat him. 2015 saw Scottish Labour effectively wiped out, the SNP won 56 MPs, the result of an emotional vote, 2017 saw the number drop to 35 MPs. So, the SNP aren’t as strong as many will think, 30 of the 35 seats the SNP currently holds are marginal, with Labour the principal challenger in as many as 22 of them.

One thing in this election is that we will see surprises thrown up, when and where is unclear but somewhere someone who everyone thought was fireproof will end up getting burned. And if I had my way of putting someone to the torch, it would be Ian Blackford, the pompous fool who took Charles Kennedy’s seat. This is one character which people say that the Labour and Conservatives should stand aside for the Lib Dems. Tactical voting is being promoted in this election however, the political parties of the Union haven’t gotten on board with this other than asking voters from other parties to lend them their vote. The Conservatives have for a few weeks been pushing this line, how people will respond, we will see at the ballot box.

Given we have so many marginal seats in Scotland, Eight of the thirteen seats won by the Conservatives and six of the seven seats that Labour took back, the outcome in these marginal seats matter for both the Conservatives and Labour Parties. There is a long way to go in this election, and although the Conservatives appear 10 points min ahead, the task for Labour it seems is to deny Boris Johnson a majority, that appears to me to be their goal. You can see already that certain people are under strain, and with the tension expect to mount, you will at least be entertained if not enlightened in this election.

This is still the Brexit Election, this is the obstacle that the Labour Party must get around!

Interestingly, if the Labour Party in Scotland had a magical night on the 12 December and recaptured all of the 22 marginal seats where it is second to the SNP, the political landscape of the UK would be in touching distance of being changed. Labour would need just over a three-point swing from the Conservatives in the rest of the UK to win an overall majority. If, they didn’t achieve any of that, then Labour would see the task as much harder, having to claw back 6 % in the rest of the UK. This is why Scotland is so important for the Labour Party fortunes, in a lesser extent important to the Conservatives. The 13 seats won by the Scottish Conservatives meant that Theresa May was able to do a deal with the DUP after she went to the polls, although I thought an early election was a case of bad timing for her, and it was.

Finally, the most recent Scottish polling, conducted in mid-October by YouGov, put the SNP on 42%, the Conservatives were on 22%, the Liberal Democrats, 13 and Labour, on 12%. Looking at the Labour polling of 12% is scarcely believable, but a reflection on what is and has to come in Scottish Labour …… a purge, a change of direction, a new campaigning model and a more dynamic work record of CLPs and activists. The Labour Party needs to be campaigning full time, all the time, much in the same way that the Conservatives will need to do if they still want to attempt Holyrood 2021. Campaigning is like puppies, not just for xmas, but all year round.

Yours sincerely

George Laird

The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University