Friday, August 2, 2019

8 Days in July; Just elected and Prime Minister Boris Johnson has majority of one after suffering a significant blow in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, Boris holds the record now of losing a seat in record time as a new PM, the real test however is the upcoming Sheffield Hallam by-election
















Dear All

Last night a new record was set in the Breacon and Radnorshire by-election, Boris Johnson holds the record of losing a seat in circa a week. This fact is a titbit, but the real story for me is how the Brexit Party can influence an election. Firstly, in the European Elections in this area, the Brexit Party polled 35%. Last night they limped in with a measly 10.5% vote share, which begs the questions, where did the Brexit voters go and why?

The Brexit Party is facing a learning experience, EU elections aren’t like Westminster elections, and the lack of policies, long campaigns and short campaigns and general campaigning is a factor. Their contribution last night was to act as a stopper which cut Boris Johnson’s Commons majority to one!

Not exactly their plan, but a by-product nonetheless.

The Conservative incumbent went from 20,081 to 12,401 because Chris Davies was subject to a recall petition. A recall petition due to his conviction for in March 2019, he pleaded guilty to two counts of fraud concerning Parliamentary expenses. In what must seem bizarre, his local Conservative Association picked him again. The National Party let them, and as they say the rest is history.

A drop of 8,000 votes!

So, this isn’t a good night for the Conservatives but the good news for them is that the Lib Dems in the shape of Jane Dodds won having been the subject of a major campaign by her party to elect her. If you remember my previous stuff on the how the political economy works, you know the three key factors, money, people and resources. The Lib Dems put a huge amount of human capital in to win this seat, which in a general election will not be available.

One other bit of interesting news is the Conservative plan seems to be to crush the Brexit Party as the imminent threat to their election chances. The key date for everyone is still 31st October 2019, if there is a no deal Brexit, then the Conservatives have breathing space. If there isn’t no deal exit, the noose will be tightened around Boris Johnson’s neck. No deal Brexit neturalises the Brexit Party, anything else fans the flames.

The turn out last night was a healthy 59.7% in the by-election so it was a keenly contested seat, Jane Dodds did what was expected of her, her speech talking of Lib Dem revival was standard fare.

The Labour Party last night polled 5.3% of the vote which translates to, 1680, they kept their deposit but the night was really a disaster for them as well as the Conservatives.  In 2017, the party in the general election managed 7,335 votes, last night they should have done much better, but this seat isn’t a target seat for them.

Ukip’s contribution was on par with the Monster Raving Looney Party, however Ukip couldn’t beat them.
Looney beat them 334 to 242.

The Brexit party has sucked the life out of Ukip and it is now seen as a shell.

In light of this defeat, you will not be hearing calls for an early general election from the Conservatives, but you will from Labour, which will be bravado; this result is a kick in the teeth for them and their plans. This by-election isn’t a classic, a more interesting test is the upcoming by-election in Sheffield Hallam which is the current former Labour MP Jared O’Mara is about to resign. This seat is a genuine possibly three way contest between Labour, Lib Dems and Conservatives unlike Breacon and Radnorshire.

Finally, two major factors helped the Lib Dems win, their relentless onslaught in the area swamping it with activists and the deal which saw Plaid Cymru and the Green Party stand aside for Jane Dodds. This made circa about just around 3,000 votes available to her which in normal circumstances wouldn’t have been available. Last night we really didn’t get a sense how the cards fall for a general election but we did see an anomaly and a peek at Conservative thinking….. crush the Brexit Party at all costs.

Roll on Sheffield Hallam.

Yours sincerely

George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University

3 comments:

  1. Get the feeling that if a general election is called, the Lib Dems just might beat Labour. Unless Labour get rid of Corbyn, they are screwed.

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  2. Is there a risk of the Lib Dems taking power and unanimously halting Brexit?

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  3. I can see more of this mutual support between parties. Anywhere there is a slim majority could be rich pickings for some. UKIP are most definitely dead. I would seriously love to see the Monster Raving mob win a seat. Be the most sensible politician ever elected.

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