The rout of Nicola Sturgeon’s indy dream; SNP leader sees a new poll showing strong public opposition to her plans for a second Scottish independence referendum, the stage is set for the biggest battle in Scottish political history, is this the return of a pro UK majority at Holyrood, a hung parliament and the end of Sturgeon’s career?

Dear All

As if you need any confirmation, a new poll shows that Nicola Sturgeon is facing strong public opposition to a second Scottish independence referendum.

So, what is the problem?

Her!

The problem is Nicola Sturgeon.

For years, Scottish politics has been bogged down by the SNP and talk of independence to such an extent, that the public has grown sick of it. Just as the media agenda must move on, so must the political agenda.Where has been the political movement in Scotland that translated into better devolved services?

We have seen plenty of incompetence as the SNP Ministers abandoned their desks of the ‘day job’, or proved to be completely out of their depth mentally. If you throw in a lack of a vision, the non-existence of a complying narrative, and a rehash of old failed tactics, you see the SNP has run out of steam.

A Survation survey for the Scottish Daily Mail found three-fifths of Scots were opposed to a re-run of the 2014 vote for at least five years, and with a pro UK majority expected in Holyrood for 2021, you can literally treble that figure. As I said many years ago, Scottish independence as an issue is gone, it died in 2014, but those of us who watch and interact in politics know, the bid was lost completely as far back in 2012.

What made 2012 so special?

Abandonment of ministerial responsibility for Scottish Government departments by the SNP, they went campaigning, paying lip service to their jobs, but they still took the money. The history of that period, ‘the abandonment’ in my mind has never been properly analysed, as the big three departments of devolved government all suffered.

Health, education and Law, all suffered.

The fact that three-fifths of Scots opposed Nic ola Sturgeon’s plans, shows that the wheels are coming off the SNP, they are becoming a minority party again. The great experiment of change failed to materialise, in fact, Scotland as a country went backwards in real terms of marking progress.

One anomaly is the relatively strong support for the SNP at Holyrood; in part this is down to a failure of the opposition to capitalise on the mistakes of the SNP. The opposition is seen as ‘weak’ because they haven’t carved out a narrative of change. It simply isn’t enough to stand and say, ‘we’re not the SNP’. 

What the people need is a reason to go and vote FOR someone, not just against. 

The race for Holyrood according to this poll, shows that  the SNP and Greens could hold on to their pro-independence majority at the 2021 election. But I don’t think that is the case, Holyrood is still open to be a three horse race, what the Conservatives and Labour need to do is not get in each other’s way.

How activists are used and where could be the key to defeating the SNP in marginal seats.

    

One reason why I think that there will be a pro UK majority 2021, is that the Scottish Greens are a party going nowhere. More Green MSPs have failed to materialise in Scotland and if you look at the quality of these people, no surprise there. Sturgeon’s call for a second referendum in March 2016 was after the SNP peaked in the 2015 election, but in two short years, things fell apart in 2017 Westminster election. The SNP lost a third of its MPs and half a million votes in that general election and they have more to lose in terms of votes and seats, especially at Westminster.

Prime Minister Theresa May is going to eject any request for a Section 30 order transferring such powers in this term of Holyrood. Sturgeon knows this and is banking on using the refusal as a campaign tool in the next election. This is to attempt to repeat an old tactic which saw emotion take people to the ballot box in 2015.

And what a lot of dross from the SNP ended up in Westminster.

The latest poll gave the SNP a healthy lead over its rivals at Holyrood, putting them 19 points ahead of the Tories in constituencies and 10 points ahead of them on the list. The Conservatives will need a major push to overcome this as they see themselves in with a shout. There is even talk that Scottish Conservatives could win the Cathcart seat which is currently held by James Dornan.

Scottish Tory MSP Maurice Golden said:

“This shows a clear majority do not want another referendum any time soon. Scots are sick and tired of Nicola Sturgeon’s obsession with a referendum. They deserve a Scottish Government focused on their priorities of health and education.”

Finally, the election of 2021 is probably the most significant election in the history of Holyrood, the goal of government is now seen as a three horse race, the secondary prize is perhaps more important in terms of Scotland’s future. This is ensuring a pro UK majority in Holyrood. 

The work required by pro UK parties is considerable indeed, the SNP have pole position for leading a minority government at the moment but with two years to go; that may change. Rather than waiting for the SNP to fail even more in the eyes of the voters, what is needed is a clear program for government with meat on it. Before anyone forgets, the expenses scandal ushered in the SNP in 2007, not policy, perhaps external factors could also usher them and Nicola Sturgeon out the door?

Yours sincerely

George Laird

The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University