Clutching at Straws, as the United Kingdom is poised to trigger Article 50 to leave the European Union, an EU report says Scotland 'could remain in EU after Brexit', the trouble with academics is that ‘what ifs and could be’ exist in their minds, Scotland will exit the European Union along with the rest of the UK, and no silly games by SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon will alter that fact, she gambled, she lost

Dear All

We standby for the historic triggering of the application to leave the European Union after over four decades of membership, the United Kingdom isn’t as some people preach about to implode, quite the opposite. Already we know that the Westminster Government after been actively holding talks about “deals” whether military or trade in and outside the EU.

The United Kingdom isn’t going to suffer; it is a real shame that after 40 plus years of membership, but the people of the UK couldn’t put up with the continual loss of sovereignty, it was too high a price to pay.

Sovereignty was the main issue, other symptoms of the loss of that focused some people’s minds were on specific issues like immigration, human rights, border controls and terrorism.  In the end, the issue decided by the people, direct democracy was the mechanism which took British people out of the EU.

Never forget that the people of the United Kingdom did indeed make the right choice, it wasn’t an easy choice; it was a choice that had to be made. If you are familiar with the term ‘the wisdom of crowds’, this was certainly this in action. It was a close vote, some people had been hoodwinked by the main parties who promoted the EU as Europe to confuse people.

The European Union is a political organisation which acts an umbrella group for 28 Member States, it isn’t a country, and it has grown too powerful without the necessary checks and balances to hold it to account. In the EU, there is no ‘wisdom of crowds’ because the political elite don’t serve the people’s interests, they serve big business and big corporations, the EU is anti worker and anti country.

The 29^th March 2017 is a day for the history books as Theresa May prepares to trigger Article 50. To get the ball rolling and make it legal, we will have the White Paper on the Great Repeal Bill.

Nothing is doing to stop the United Kingdom in its entirety leaving, one out means all out, Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland leave as one unit. The membership of the EU doesn’t rest with one country but the United Kingdom as a whole, and since this was a UK referendum, all leave.   

To say the EU is unhappy about the UK would be an understatement, there are 28 Members of the EU but the UK provides 20% of their budget. Clearly there will be a knock on effect to the other member states. Every year bar one, the UK had been a net contributor to the EU pot, now as we go, the EU thinks they can charge the UK for 50 billion pounds, this is laughable. The people of the UK will not agree to paying an exit fee so that the EU can have a 5 year buffer to restructure their funds, they are going to just have to ‘lean’ on the poorer members.

Imagine if you are one of the less developed Nations getting less aid and stumping up more money, with the added kicker of having to bid for it? When you look into the nuts and bolts of the EU, the less attractive it is becoming, in some respects, it reminds me of the James Bond’s Spectre movie, political elite siphoning off cash with no limit to what they can get away with.

Quick question, they estimate that millions disappear in the EU every year, when was the last time you heard of a prosecution? That question might stump you for quite some time, and I would like you to miss out the MEP scandals as they are small potatoes in the overall picture. MEPs are there to give the ‘illusion of democracy’ where none exists. Of course, the illusion is well camouflaged; you throw people crumbs and make it sound appealing.      

But to create the illusion, you are paying for it, about a million pounds a year for each of the 751 MEPs, plus add in their staff, the Commission staff, the parliament staff and everyone else who gets a ‘turn’, we are talking north of a billion pounds a years. One of the features of the European Parliament is committees much like we have here at Westminster and Holyrood. So, now we have a report by a European Parliament committee which says that Scotland and Northern Ireland could both remain in the EU pending an independence referendum.

Have you heard about an independence referendum for Northern Ireland doing the rounds? The SNP have been attempting to get indyref 2 off the ground and started but they don’t have the authority and Nicola Sturgeon is backing away from calling an advisory one because that will lead to problems for her and Holyrood.

The European Parliament’s constitutional affairs committee has produced research claiming that there was enough "constitutional flexibility" for Scotland and Northern Ireland to remain in the EU ahead of independence referendums being held. One thing the EU is not allowed to do is interfere with the domestic political arrangements of a Member State, this "constitutional flexibility" clearly only exists in their minds. During Brexit talks, neither the Westminster Government nor the EU team will raise this, and we can certainly take comfort that the SNP will not be part of the UK team or get to be in the room.

One of the things which is quite clear in Scotland is that the ‘will of the people’ is for staying part of the United Kingdom, the question was settled in September 2014. If you look up the petition against a second independence referendum, the numbers against have reached over 200,000 signatures. There is a huge groundswell against a second referendum which is causing uncertainty and division. We now have the EU Parliament’s constitutional affairs committee stoking those fires; this is particularly bad when you consider the Irish question and the blood that has been shed during the troubles.

Clearly the European Parliament’s constitutional affairs committee is steering itself towards dangerous political waters as far as the United Kingdom is concerned.  

The SNP government said the findings showed a ‘desire’ in Brussels for Scotland to remain in the EU. A few people in Brussels with no political power in the UK doesn’t make for anything other than nuisance value.

A SNP government source said:

“It’s quite clear from the tone that Brussels is open to the idea of Scotland keeping its place in Europe, in line with the way people here voted, even if that was conditional on the outcome of the independence referendum. That openness contrasts with the Tory intransigence we have seen from Westminster. But the bottom line is that people in Scotland will be given a choice on this country’s future, in line with the cast-iron democratic mandate which exists for holding the referendum, which we hope will be strengthened when parliament votes on the issue this week.”

Or another way of looking at it, having lost 20% of the EU, the people in Brussels is playing political games to try and increase their bargaining position at the talks. The EU position is that they are on the losing side, although concessions here or there maybe made on certain areas; the final decision doesn’t lie with them.

The membership of the United Kingdom is getting cancelled.

As to the vote in Holyrood this week, it is meaningless; this is the SNP together with the Scottish Greens trying to apply pressure since they don’t have the ‘will of the people’ in their corner, now they have had to say this is the ‘will of parliament’.

The important thing to remember is that the Holyrood vote is meaningless; this is Nicola Sturgeon trying to do anything and everything to save her own political skin. She ramped up the hype so much that she had nowhere to go, so Westminster says ‘not now’, it means no second referendum in 2018 o 2019, you could be looking at 2021 as a possible date if it is allowed to happen at all.

It is entirely doubtful that the Unionist parties in Scotland particularly Scottish Labour will be in a position to stop an SNP victory at Holyrood at present. Scottish Labour needs to change radically, and with council elections in which they are said to be heading for a massive defeat, you have to wonder when or if a revival is possible. Personally, they know things are bad in Scottish Labour but they still don’t want to commit to change.

As to their ‘Federalism’ idea, no one in Scotland is talking about this, you see the case for federalism is a rather long discussion which cannot be broken up into sound bites, this discussion doesn’t sit well with Nationalists, or Unionists who want to save the Union as is.

Who is Kezia Dugdale’s target audience?

If she thinks everyone is sitting about waiting for ‘third way’ politics, she is well out of touch. Federalism is the last stop before independence in the United Kingdom. If you are at that position, running everything except foreign affairs and defence, you would be at the point of no return nearly.

Political scientist Brendan O'Leary in his report will no doubt have created a talking point, 'Detoxifying the UK's Exit from the EU' sounds rather catchy but Westminster will not accept his conclusions. 

Here is his CV to get a look at, it looks impressive but he is reaching if he thinks his report can get traction.   

His report said:

“An exponent of constitutional flexibility argues that given the status of these dependencies, separate arrangements can also be made for other parts of the UK when England and Wales leave the EU. Northern Ireland and Scotland could remain within the EU, at least pending the resolution of their UK status via a border poll (Northern Ireland) or an independence referendum (Scotland). Their current status as parts of the UK union have been altered by the decision to leave the EU - a decision rejected by both countries - and as such it would be unfair to forcibly remove them from another union, i.e. the European one. This view may hold merit but has no traction with the Westminster government.”

The idea that because Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man as British dependencies have different arrangements with the EU is in no way reflecting what the political situation is in the UK. The Act of Union of 1707 isn’t simply just a piece of paper, and it isn’t going to be acceptable in the eyes of many people to try and overwrite it with a new Act of Union as has been floated by Scottish Labour or the Constitutional Reform Group.

The European Union has just held its 60th anniversary with an informal summit in Rome, Theresa May didn’t attend, the EU is flawed, and the situation in Europe is going to get worse and that includes what the Turks are threatening re migrants. The far right is rising, and becoming active, more people are flocking to them. The EU at some point will have to reform, they are about to hit a financial crisis with the loss of 20% of their budget.

Some of the other 27 Member States are about to experience painful decisions which will not go down well with their people, no wonder the EU is clutching at straws citing phantom arrangements which will not working in practice and will not be allowed to happen.

The light burns brightest before it goes out; much like Nicola Sturgeon screaming her head off about second independence referendums?

Yours sincerely

George Laird

The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University