Migrant crisis, has Angela Merkel laid the foundations of civil war in the EU, German public opinion is changing against #migrantswelcome, Jens Spahn, a deputy finance minister said; “This [mood] is changing by the hour. The debate will look quite different in a few days’ time.”

Dear All

Has German Chancellor Angela Merkel laid the ground work for civil war in the EU?

One thing she has certainly down is inflict enormous damage not just to her reputation but that of the European Union.

Although some say that chaos is nothing to be feared and presents opportunity, in this case her bad judgment has created a situation which cannot be controlled by civil means. Normally travelling through-out member states of the EU is a pretty straight forward affair.

As I remarked in an earlier post, the Schengen area seems on the surface to be a pretty good idea, this is because the majority of people travelling respect the rules of the host country as they pass through it.

But what happens to a country when thousands of illegal migrants pass through with no respect for the EU?

Last night, someone told me a couple of story of migrants on the continent being killed, this is bad enough but what makes it interesting was that people living in the area it happened aren’t willing to co-operate with the Police. I am going to try and research where this happened as it makes a good human interest story which to have a discussion about.

Did Angela Merkel really chew down to the bone what the effects of her decision to relax the rules on Syrian refugees flooding into Germany?

Why didn’t she follow the lead of the United Kingdom and say that Syrian refugees would only be accepted from camps, it would have still allowed her to show her humanity and at the same time show awareness of the bigger picture!

Any enterprise such as this involves risks.

Another story which caught my eye was the stabbing of a German Police woman by an ISIS extremist in Germany, the officer was stabbed in the neck, taken by helicopter to a military hospital she is expected to live.

A seemingly ‘good idea by Angela Merkel turned sour pretty quickly, her position on refugees is untenable, so much so that she has gone into retreat and imposed emergency borders in an effort to secure the country.   

From hero to zero in the blink of an eye!

Schengen is dead now and with it the exposing of failure to plan in the EU, decisions made by Merkel or indeed anyone in a similar position require a considerable amount of thought. When she said open borders, did she really not understand the chaos in neighbouring countries; did she expect everyone to be ‘beamed’ in like Star Trek onto German soil?

Carsten Nickel, an analyst with Teneo Intelligence, a political research company said:

“I would not say there is panic in Berlin but they are feeling a little overwhelmed.”

Take it from me, the actions of the German Government over the last few days and the decisions made, do indeed show panic.

Especially the asylum refusal idea which has been trotted out, this is based on third countries in Africa and elsewhere running camps. Which countries will volunteer for that, at present the migrant quota idea isn’t finding favour with member states, in Southern Europe.

The German government has issued denials that its decision to relax the rules was a mistake, given what is available online to see and read, yes, it was a mistake and a major mistake at that.

The liberal Süddeutsche newspaper said:

“Borders open, borders closed. Nobody dares to forecast what will happen. However, many ask whether the chancellor has any plan at all.”

No, she has a plan is my ten cents worth; if she had she won’t be pressing into service through regional administrations temporary shelters in sports halls. Merkel won’t be getting her ear bent by political leaders in Bavaria which is ruled by the conservative CSU. CSU chief Horst Seehofer condemned her “open-doors” decision as a mistake and the failure of other German regions to take refugees from Bavaria in line with a longstanding agreement. Their leaders have seen the scenes of chaos and violence and rightly want no part of that problem.

And let’s be clear Merkel needs to dilute the refugees as widely as possible, because they represent a social cohesion problem. So, the pressure is on both internal and externally by the Germans to use the entire EU to spread out the misstep by Merkel.

Germany is particularly incensed that eastern European states, they don’t want Merkel’s problem on their doorstep and that is understandable. Yes, as EU member states they have benefit from being members in a financial sense but this problem wasn’t created by them.  

German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier failed to win significant concessions at a Prague meeting with his Czech, Slovak, Hungarian and Polish counterparts. And he won’t be making much headway or at least the progress will be painfully slow and difficult.

I see the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland not wishing to have the Syrians or indeed any of the ‘others’ who claim to be Syrian on their soil. Clearly German public opinion will turn acts of violence on European and specifically German soil will fix that, and that leaves only one option as a long term solution.

Detention and repatriation!

These people will have to be sent back to their homelands, the people who claim to be Syrians will have to be weeded out from the ‘others’, and dealt with separately. A new policy of only accepting from approved refugee camps will have to be put in place, and illegal migrants who don’t conform to the rules, sent back.

No exceptions unless there are special circumstances.

As to the EU borders, every EU country will now have to have a secure border which means manned border checks and fences patrolled. 

Finally, there appears to be a shift even within the political leadership in Germany from Merkel’s original welcoming attitude.

Jens Spahn, a deputy finance minister, said in a weekend interview:

“This [mood] is changing by the hour. The debate will look quite different in a few days’ time.”

And the key to change will be violence; this is why the military is needed to deal with this situation which has gone so far out of hand. I read that Germans are buying firearms because they fear for their safety. Migrants, it has been said are breaking into people’s homes to steal, sooner or later those doing so will risk death.

I am asking has German Chancellor Angela Merkel laid the ground work for civil war in the EU.

If the EU doesn’t stem the migrant tide then yes, she has, Merkel has shown weakness and bad judgment. And the bad will towards migrants is also increasing in the UK, not among the political class but among those who have the least.

Yours sincerely

George Laird

The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University