Dear All
The art of staying popular in politics,
well, it’s difficult, you can’t please everyone, however if enough people get
their noses out of joint then you are shafted.
Scottish Conservatives have just finished
their Conference at the weekend, no one died but one protestor was dragged off
for allegedly singing that English Tories should go home.
There was even an inflatable Rat to
highlight that Tories were rat bags.
Coincidently, the protestors were pro
independence, they wasted their time protesting but the Sun was shining, and as
they say it was their nickel.
Outwardly, the party conference season is a
stage managed show of unity with everyone kissing everyone in front of the
cameras to show ‘one big happy family’.
Despite the razzle dazzle, a study carried
out by former Tory party donor Lord Ashcroft has found that David Cameron is
less popular than his party for the first time.
Not a good sign, especially given that
Tories stab their leaders in the back and heave them over the side when the
ship starts sinking.
David Cameron came to Scotland and did the
usual, isn’t the Scottish leader wonderful, we are Better Together, and
finished off his bit pretty quick and sat down.
The Conservatives have many problems, the
economic situation, banking, crime, immigration, welfare.
There seems to be a cry from his back
benchers that swing hard right is the solution to everything, it isn’t,
pandering isn’t leadership, that doesn’t mean he should be deaf, but rather the
need for policies that actually help people is needed.
The Ashcroft poll showed a “noticeable
shift” towards dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister's performance, a bit of
wit at PMQs is all fine and good, but there is a time and place for comedy.
Lord Ashcroft has decided that blame
regarding the Tories’ setbacks can be firmly on the party putting people off by
“talking amongst ourselves” about peripheral issues like Europe and gay
marriage.
Ashcroft it seems wants to get the Tories
to focus on voters’ core priorities, bread and butter issues, these are
especially important particularly when there isn’t any bread or butter.
The report makes grim reading for Cameron,
overall, 37 per cent of those questioned said they would vote Labour, 27 per
cent Conservative, 15 per cent the UK Independence Party and 9 per cent Liberal
Democrat.
If you had the chance to look at Labour,
their current approach is to mirror the Tories and try and get re-elected by
default.
Ed Miliband’s party sits on a comfortable
10-point advantage, but this lead is soft, it can be turned around, but in
order to do so, the Tories have to appeal to working class voters.
The current austerity drive is failing, it
would have failed under Labour as well; they wanted a longer period but lets us
not kid ourselves they were solving problems just managing them.
This means, that UKIP could in theory do
rather well in 23 month’s time at the next General Election.
Any good news for Cameron, well the public
given a straight choice between him and Ed Miliband would still choose Cameron.
Ed Miliband is weak as a leader, the young,
dynamic and happening really doesn’t apply to Miliband, he is the unions, the
party would rather have his brother David, he is off to America.
Lord Ashcroft said:
“The Prime Minister's Europe speech (in
January) was supposed to clear the decks and allow us to talk about the things
we were elected to do. So much for all that. My poll shows the last six months
to have been a missed opportunity to make progress on all the things that will
determine who wins in 2015.This is the price we have paid for spending half a
year talking amongst ourselves.”
You can understand why, UKIP isn’t going
away, they represent a real threat, dismissed as ‘closet racists’, they could
be needed if a new coalition is required.
And as the bad news piled up, the poll
found that only 28 per cent of voters see the Conservatives as “united”,
against 48 per cent for Labour.
Although numbers are very useful, politics
is more than just facts, how facts are presented is important, when and by whom
as well, it’s a total package, 40 per cent trusted Mr Cameron, Mr Osborne and
Mr Clegg with the economy, against 26 per cent for the Labour team.
2015 will be an interesting time in British
politics, the story of how UKIP performs will figure in the thinking of all the
mainstream parties, how do you solve a problem like Nigel?
Recently the French President Hollande gave
a speech in the Far East that the Euro crisis is over, that is wishful
thinking, there is more trouble in the pipeline, and voters may see the ‘cure’
as a Euro exit. Europe is a good idea, however the application leaves a lot to
be desired, piecemeal thinking and a tendency to rush things through without
proper analysis.
And at some stage, enough people will get
together and there will be a word that everyone will unify around, it is No!
Ruth Davidson is seen as Cameron’s and
London CCHQ choice in Scotland, she needs to get her own agenda sorted pretty
quick too, people here aren’t ferreting about losing Westminster seats, the
Tories only have one. They are ferreting about how, when or even if they can
get more than one.
Yours sincerely
George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow
University
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