SNP Leadership Collapse; SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon is so toxic that only 1 in 4 back Sturgeon calling for second independence referendum this autumn, Keith Brown since elected Deputy is very much the ‘invisible man’, People are tired of lies, tired of failure, tired of deceit; they are literally tired of the leadership of the SNP and in particular Nicola Sturgeon

Dear All

Do, you remember the ‘45’; this is what the Nationalists tagged themselves within minutes of losing the Scottish independence referendum of 2014. Twitter was a blaze with people tweet ‘45’ and some put it on their twitter profiles. The winners, the ‘55’ didn’t see any need to attempt to bolster their confidence with some cheap gimmick, they won it!

Its 2018, not a great time leap from 2014 but now the ‘45’ seem to be melting away, a survey for the Daily Record found only 23 per cent of people thought Nicola Sturgeon should push for a new vote now, and with signs clearly pointing to a split within the Nationalists ranks, 19 per cent who wanted one much later.  

Only 1 in 4 back Sturgeon calling for second independence referendum this autumn, but the reality is neither they nor Nicola Sturgeon will be getting one. What is significant is that so many think an unwinnable referendum needs to happen now. Nicola Sturgeon is playing for time; she knows she will lose another Scottish independence referendum by an even bigger margin.

Scotland will never follow the lead of Nicola Sturgeon or the SNP, their antics at Holyrood and Westminster have been noticed, from stupidity to incompetence, the SNP have travelled all those roads.

The polling found that the majority of Scotland is fully opposed to any referendum full stop. Far from winning over people, the SNP had entrenched views of people, voting to stay in the UK is still growing in Scotland. The same cannot be said for the option to break up the UK, what the SNP haven’t come to terms with post 2014 and 2016 referendums, is the political landscape has moved away from them. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP have no narrative and no purpose in a modern Scotland. People are tired of lies, tired of failure, tired of deceit; they are literally tired of the leadership of the SNP and in particular Nicola Sturgeon who has become a figure of mockery.

Nicola Sturgeon jumped the gun and a second referendum in March 2017, but the ‘we are on our way’ was short lived by the snap Westminster election in 2017. Sturgeon lost that election badly then had to “reset” her plans, the drop in support a mere two years was significant.

One thing the SNP do rather easily is break promises, Sturgeon promised to update MSPs on a “precise timescale” on a second referendum this autumn, but that will have to be kicked into the long grass, in her case, rather long grass, we are talking post 2022. The year before is the Holyrood election, and if the SNP can’t get a majority with the Greens, they will not be able to get the legal framework in place, in the event of getting a Section 30 order post 2021 Holyrood.

Brexit is a red herring; it is just a ‘place holder’ for SNP grievance to justify any ‘change of circumstances’ for a second vote.

As it stands now, it looks unlikely there will be a majority at Holyrood for the SNP and their allies, if that happens, then politics turns interesting in Scotland. There is fight between the UK and Scottish governments at the Supreme Court between now and the autumn, although the SNP would like to paint this case as meaningful, it isn’t, the Court should strike down Holyrood’s alternative Brexit Bill. Just as Brexit didn’t bring a kick start of popular support for a second referendum, neither will this court case.

People don’t genuinely like Nicola Sturgeon, despite the ‘makeover’, what lies underneath in her personality is terribly ugly; it matches what comes out of her mouth. No amount of standing with kids or any other set piece moments of appearing ‘caring’ can mask the real Nicola Sturgeon.

One thing which would be highly amusing is if Sturgeon pushes again for a referendum and the Prime Minister refuses, the loss of face would be incredible and send a signal.

Nicola Sturgeon has no real power, Nicola Sturgeon cannot affect real change; Nicola Sturgeon is a busted flush.

Professor Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University said the new poll showed that, despite SNP hopes Brexit was still having little impact on the independence question.

He said:

“Although the SNP have had somewhat the better of the argument in the row about the impact of Brexit Withdrawal Bill on the powers of the Scottish Parliament, there’s still no sign of any significant change in the level for support for independence – or much evidence of enthusiasm for an early ballot among the party’s supporters.”

Scottish Labour Leader Richard Leonard said:

"The people of Scotland want the government focused on jobs, schools and hospitals, not another referendum campaign that creates false divisions between working class people when the real divide is between the richest and the rest of us. The chaos at the heart of the Tory government has focused people’s minds on the extreme challenges of leaving a political and economic union, and it is clear that there is not strong support for Nicola Sturgeon to try and force another referendum onto the agenda."

A Scottish Conservative spokesman said:

“This poll again shows the majority of people do not want a second referendum - and they overwhelmingly don’t want one any time soon. Nicola Sturgeon should use this research as motivation to take the threat of another divisive vote off the table.”

Scottish Green MSP Patrick Harvie added: 

"It’s remarkable that support for independence remains so high given that the Yes movement hasn’t done a single bit of formal campaigning. The status quo will no longer exist in March 2019 and I suspect that voters in Scotland will come to demand a say on whether we should be dragged along with this Brexit mess."

Given that the Green MSP used the word ‘formal’, we should remember that the SNP have been using Holyrood as a campaign vehicle prior to the 2014 vote and post 2014 losing of the referendum. The SNP and their ‘allies’ haven’t gone away because they think like kids playing ‘war’ that a last grenade can win the battle for them. The truth is that being in government has become a double edged sword for the SNP, their failures across the board show that they are incapable to be the government of Scotland.

Finally, the split in the Nationalist movement over timing will lead to the parting of the waves between the SNP and the wider independence movement, last time, the SNP ran the show and failed, this time you may find the SNP being pushed away to run their own separate campaign.

What is clear is that Nicola Sturgeon is toxic, and no PR Guru will be able to change that, she is the lighting rod for grievance where none exists. If you need to have it rammed home to you, the lack of candidates to be Nicola Sturgeon’s deputy tells a story as does the fact that Keith Brown since elected is very much the ‘invisible man’.

Yours sincerely

George Laird

The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University